| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 25 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:26 | Nico Hischier (10)PP Jesper Bratt (20), Dawson Mercer (11) · wrist xG 0.05 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 3:03 | Ondrej Palat (2) Arseny Gritsyuk (7) · wrist xG 0.18 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 9:54 | Denton Mateychuk (6)PP Charlie Coyle (13), Ivan Provorov (5) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 1:28 | Sean Monahan (4) Cole Sillinger (8), Zach Werenski (16) · wrist xG 0.19 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 6:40 | Charlie Coyle (4) Zach Werenski (17), Miles Wood (3) · backhand xG 0.37 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 7:14 | Sean Monahan (5) Isac Lundeström (3) · snap xG 0.15 | 4–2 ▶ | |
| 11:51 | Timo Meier (10)PP Jesper Bratt (21), Nico Hischier (15) · snap xG 0.18 | 4–3 ▶ | |
| 13:31 | Miles Wood (7) Charlie Coyle (14) · wrist xG 0.19 | 5–3 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| CBJ | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.91 | Expected goals | 3.80 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 3 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.50 |
| 43 | Shot attempts | 65 |
| 32 | Unblocked attempts | 52 |
| 25 | Shots on goal | 33 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | NJD | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.32–0.31
In xG over 10 minutes, the start of the 1st to 10:00 of the 1st; goals 2–1 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 10:10 | CBJ | No shift | No shift · Aston-Reese, 11:12 on the bench
No shift from 17:59 of the 2nd to 12:28 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:46) before that |
| 12:30 | NJD | No shift | No shift · Dillon, 13:01 on the bench
No shift after 19:07 of the 2nd; 13 shifts (10:32) before that |
| 13:31 | NJD | Goalie | Goalie · Allen −2.5 goals saved
5 goals on 2.47 xG, 25 shots on goal |
| 14:40 | CBJ | No shift | No shift · Pinelli, 10:45 on the bench
No shift after 3:34 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:58) before that |
| 15:16 | NJD | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Allen, down 5–3
With 4:44 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 0.30 | 4 | 1 | 19:30 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 3 | 2 | 17:00 |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 16:30 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 1 | 16:23 |
| 50 | Brendan Gaunce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.58 | 4 | 0 | 12:37 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 |
| 59 | Egor Chinakhov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 09:17 |
| 21 | Zachary Aston-Reese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 07:01 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 2 | 26:57 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 0.01 | 3 | 0 | 25:59 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.10 | 1 | 2 | 21:07 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 2 | 1 | 17:15 |
| 7 | Brendan Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11:06 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins | 33 | 3 | 30 | .909 | 3.80 | +0.80 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 0 | 23:51 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 6 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 10 | 0.86 | 3 | 1 | 23:45 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 | 17:56 |
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13:38 |
| 12 | Cody Glass | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.16 | 2 | 0 | 12:19 |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 1 | 12:01 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 3 | 11:06 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | 10:47 |
| 83 | Juho Lammikko | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 09:02 |
| 11 | Stefan Noesen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.14 | 2 | 0 | 08:33 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 71 | Simon Nemec | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.27 | 0 | 2 | 29:28 |
| 43 | Luke Hughes | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 8 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 25:51 |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 2 | 1 | 21:17 |
| 44 | Dennis Cholowski | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 06:06 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | 25 | 5 | 20 | .800 | 2.47 | -2.53 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | +3.58 | +2.15 | +0.24 | +1.13 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | — | 20:27 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | +2.78 | +1.30 | +0.19 | +1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:30 |
| 21 Isac Lundeström C | +2.14 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +1.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:30 |
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +1.06 | +1.50 | +0.23 | -0.70 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | — | 16:23 |
| 90 Elvis Merzlikins G | +0.80 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.80 | 59:56 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | +0.71 | +0.75 | +0.07 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 21:07 |
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +0.42 | +1.25 | +0.01 | -0.82 | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 26:57 |
| 59 Egor Chinakhov R | +0.29 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 9:17 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.20 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 25:59 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:15 |
| 7 Brendan Smith D | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 11:06 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | -0.03 | +0.70 | +0.17 | -0.85 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 17:00 |
| 27 Zachary Aston-Reese L | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 7:01 |
| 16 Brendan Gaunce C | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.38 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:37 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | -0.34 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.20 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:01 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.24 | -0.76 | +0.07 | +0.07 | -0.02 | — | 20:53 |
| 53 Luca Pinelli C | -0.74 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:58 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | -0.94 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:34 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | -0.97 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.89 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:37 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Ondrej Palat L | +2.24 | +0.75 | +0.18 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 12:01 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | +1.96 | +0.70 | +0.26 | +0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 17:56 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | +1.91 | +1.40 | +0.17 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 23:46 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | +1.90 | +1.30 | +0.41 | +0.18 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.02 | — | 23:51 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | +1.89 | +0.75 | +0.56 | +0.32 | +0.30 | -0.05 | +0.01 | — | 23:45 |
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | +1.73 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +0.97 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 19:53 |
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | +1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.68 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:32 |
| 44 Dennis Cholowski D | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 18:06 |
| 12 Cody Glass C | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.21 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:19 |
| 17 Simon Nemec D | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 29:28 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:38 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 21:17 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.32 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 10:47 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.18 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:06 |
| 43 Luke Hughes D | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.63 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 25:51 |
| 11 Stefan Noesen R | -0.50 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 8:33 |
| 83 Juho Lammikko C | -0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.66 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 9:02 |
| 14 Luke Glendening C | -0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.00 | -0.06 | +0.15 | — | 11:06 |
| 34 Jake Allen G | -2.49 | 0.00 | — | — | +0.04 | — | — | -2.53 | 54:27 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.