hockeystats.io

Winnipeg JetsWPG 1–5 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Monday, December 1, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 010 1 24
Buffalo SabresBUF 311 5 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:46 BUF Jason Zucker (7)PP Josh Doan (9), Josh Norris (1) · tip-in xG 0.52 0–1 ▶
3:01 BUF Bowen Byram (5) Jack Quinn (8), Conor Timmins (6) · wrist xG 0.09 0–2 ▶
14:54 BUF Josh Norris (1) Tage Thompson (10), Zach Benson (10) · backhand xG 0.09 0–3 ▶
2nd Period
11:26 WPG Kyle Connor (13) Josh Morrissey (19), Mark Scheifele (19) · slap xG 0.14 1–3 ▶
12:49 BUF Alex Tuch (9) Josh Doan (10) · wrist xG 0.06 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
0:41 BUF Josh Norris (2) Zach Benson (11), Rasmus Dahlin (16) · backhand xG 0.17 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 33%Deserve to win67% BUF
WPGBUF
2.00Expected goals2.92
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.33Expected goals, 5 on 52.20
46Shot attempts58
36Unblocked attempts39
24Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 WPG Goalie change Goalie change · Milic in for Comrie
The start of the 2nd; Comrie had allowed 3 goals on 14 shots (1.47 xG)

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Luke Schenn: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:39) Josh Morrissey: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:19) Tage Thompson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:28) Josh Doan: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 2:43) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:15) Morgan Barron: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:24) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:28) Josh Norris: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:58) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:12) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:41) Josh Morrissey: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:54) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:45) Vladislav Namestnikov: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:46) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:39) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:20) Jason Zucker: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:46) Conor Timmins: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:58) Vladislav Namestnikov: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:20) Peyton Krebs: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:07) Peyton Krebs: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:08) Owen Power: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:59) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:38) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:45) Vladislav Namestnikov: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:14) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:21) Luke Schenn: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:28) Zach Benson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:16) Alex Iafallo: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:45) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:32) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:56) Peyton Krebs: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:44) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:29) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:53) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:11) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:12) Cole Perfetti: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:41) Jacob Bryson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:09) Colin Miller: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:35) Josh Doan: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:03) Alex Tuch: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:47) Morgan Barron: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:54) Jack Quinn: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:04) Alex Tuch: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:46) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:57) Jack Quinn: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:16) Vladislav Namestnikov: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:29) Logan Stanley: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:13) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:02) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:43) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:44) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:11) Colin Miller: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:22) Kyle Connor: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:36) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:16) Conor Timmins: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:35) Conor Timmins: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:45) Gabriel Vilardi: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:25) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:58) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:32) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 11:19) Tage Thompson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:19) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:31) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:59) Bowen Byram: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:40) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 104 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:31) Alex Tuch: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:42) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:11) Mattias Samuelsson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:18) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:43) Jason Zucker: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.52 (P1 2:46) Bowen Byram: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:01) Josh Norris: GOAL, backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:54) Kyle Connor: GOAL, slap, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:26) Alex Tuch: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:49) Josh Norris: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 0:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 101 -1 30.27 0119:12
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 20.27 1018:41
55 Mark Scheifele 011 -1 20.10 0117:54
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 20.05 0015:24
9 Alex Iafallo 000 -2 20.23 3015:18
91 Cole Perfetti 000 0 10.03 3215:01
17 Adam Lowry 000 -2 00.00 2114:34
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 50.24 3114:03
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 -2 10.06 1112:23
36 Morgan Barron 000 0 20.08 3012:22
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 40.07 4012:09
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 0 30.20 3011:08
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 011 0 60.20 0223:49
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 0 30.00 3222:00
54 Dylan Samberg 000 -1 20.01 3321:02
2 Luke Schenn 000 -2 20.06 2117:28
6 Colin Miller 000 -2 50.11 2117:00
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 10.02 2115:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Eric Comrie 14311 .786 1.47 -1.53
Thomas Milic 17215 .882 1.45 -0.55

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Jack Quinn 011 +1 40.18 0016:56
89 Alex Tuch 101 +2 50.14 0116:01
71 Ryan McLeod 000 +1 20.31 0116:01
72 Tage Thompson 011 +1 20.07 0015:44
9 Josh Norris 213 +1 60.27 0015:25
6 Zach Benson 022 +1 10.04 0015:05
91 Josh Doan 022 +1 20.13 0014:43
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 60.28 3014:35
12 Jordan Greenway 000 0 20.08 2014:21
17 Jason Zucker 101 0 20.56 0113:58
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 10.00 3113:50
86 Noah Ostlund 000 +1 20.14 0012:03
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 +1 40.24 1022:18
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 +1 60.18 1121:36
25 Owen Power 000 0 30.02 0020:21
24 Bowen Byram 101 +2 30.19 0319:58
21 Conor Timmins 011 +2 40.08 2019:15
78 Jacob Bryson 000 0 30.02 0013:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 24123 .958 2.00 +1.00

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.97 +0.70 +0.13 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:49
81 Kyle Connor L +0.55 +0.75 +0.17 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:12
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.29 +0.55 +0.07 -0.32 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 17:54
36 Morgan Barron C +0.28 0.00 +0.05 +0.27 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 12:22
14 Gustav Nyquist R +0.20 0.00 +0.13 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:08
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.23 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 22:00
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.02 0.00 +0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:09
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.18 0.00 +0.15 -0.36 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 14:03
13 Gabriel Vilardi C -0.20 0.00 +0.17 -0.51 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:41
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.35 0.00 +0.02 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:01
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.37 0.00 +0.15 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:18
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.46 0.00 +0.01 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 21:02
62 Nino Niederreiter R -0.51 0.00 +0.04 -0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:23
32 Thomas Milic G -0.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.55 40:00
17 Adam Lowry C -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 14:34
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.62 0.00 +0.03 -0.68 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 15:24
5 Luke Schenn D -0.77 0.00 +0.04 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:28
64 Logan Stanley D -0.91 0.00 +0.01 -0.67 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 15:17
6 Colin Miller D -0.92 0.00 +0.07 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:00
1 Eric Comrie G -1.53 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.53 20:00

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Josh Norris C +2.74 +2.05 +0.18 +0.37 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:25
6 Zach Benson L +2.02 +1.25 +0.03 +0.60 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:05
91 Josh Doan R +1.88 +1.40 +0.08 +0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:43
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +1.84 +0.55 +0.15 +1.27 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 22:18
89 Alex Tuch R +1.69 +0.75 +0.09 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 16:01
4 Bowen Byram D +1.37 +0.75 +0.12 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:58
17 Jason Zucker L +1.32 +0.75 +0.36 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:58
72 Tage Thompson C +1.16 +0.70 +0.05 +0.42 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:44
21 Conor Timmins D +1.13 +0.55 +0.05 +0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:15
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +1.00 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.00 60:00
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.90 0.00 +0.20 +0.64 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 16:01
22 Jack Quinn R +0.87 +0.70 +0.11 +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:56
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.80 0.00 +0.11 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:36
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.67 0.00 +0.18 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 14:35
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:50
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.17 0.00 +0.09 +0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 12:03
12 Jordan Greenway L +0.11 0.00 +0.05 +0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:21
78 Jacob Bryson D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:50
25 Owen Power D -0.03 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.