Buffalo SabresBUF 2–5 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	1	0	2	29
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	3	2	0	5	35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:08	BUF	Jason Zucker (8)PP Josh Doan (11), Josh Norris (2) · snap xG 0.19	1–0 ▶
8:26	PHI	Travis Konecny (6)PP Matvei Michkov (7), Travis Sanheim (8) · snap xG 0.05	1–1 ▶
9:04	PHI	Trevor Zegras (10)PP Travis Sanheim (9), Travis Konecny (16) · snap xG 0.08	1–2 ▶
9:25	PHI	Bobby Brink (7) Noah Cates (9), Nikita Grebenkin (3) · wrist xG 0.20	1–3 ▶
2nd Period
1:45	PHI	Noah Cates (6) Bobby Brink (5), Jamie Drysdale (9) · snap xG 0.26	1–4 ▶
11:48	BUF	Bowen Byram (6) Alex Tuch (15), Jack Quinn (9) · wrist xG 0.09	2–4 ▶
12:43	PHI	Owen Tippett (9) Matvei Michkov (8), Sean Couturier (12) · bat xG 0.41	2–5 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 26%Deserve to win74% PHI

BUF		PHI
3.64	Expected goals	5.41
2	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.38	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.99
65	Shot attempts	68
49	Unblocked attempts	47
29	Shots on goal	35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
9:25	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Ellis −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.94 xG, 9 shots on goal
2nd Period
11:50	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PHI 1.26–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 1:50 to 11:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
13:40	PHI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.46–0.27 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:40 to 14:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored
17:10	PHI	No shift	No shift · York, 12:05 on the bench No shift after 16:50 of the 2nd; 17 shifts (10:37) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	20:13
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	+1	3	0.41	0	4	19:31
17	Jason Zucker	1	0	1	-1	3	0.37	2	0	18:12
9	Josh Norris	0	1	1	-2	8	0.52	2	0	17:35
72	Tage Thompson	0	0	0	-1	7	0.21	1	0	17:34
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	0	8	0.67	0	0	16:32
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	0	5	0.28	2	0	15:26
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.10	0	0	13:57
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	3	11:09
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	10:34
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	4	1	09:31
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	1	07:32
Defense
24	Bowen Byram	1	0	1	0	7	0.44	0	3	23:49
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	+1	5	0.19	1	0	21:34
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-2	4	0.14	1	2	20:57
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	0	5	16:56
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	-1	4	0.22	0	0	16:34
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	11:06

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	35	5	30	.857	5.41	+0.41

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Sean Couturier	0	1	1	+2	1	0.10	1	1	20:27
27	Noah Cates	1	1	2	+2	5	1.02	0	4	17:43
11	Travis Konecny	1	1	2	0	3	0.20	2	0	16:35
74	Owen Tippett	1	0	1	0	12	1.42	2	1	16:34
39	Matvei Michkov	0	2	2	+1	3	0.09	0	0	15:37
46	Trevor Zegras	1	0	1	-1	5	0.47	0	0	14:06
10	Bobby Brink	1	1	2	+2	4	0.60	0	0	13:52
22	Christian Dvorak	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	0	1	13:16
18	Rodrigo Abols	0	0	0	0	5	0.29	1	1	12:28
21	Garnet Hathaway	0	0	0	0	2	0.38	1	1	12:17
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	5	1	12:02
44	Nicolas Deslauriers	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	5	0	09:32
Defense
6	Travis Sanheim	0	2	2	-1	5	0.25	0	2	23:42
9	Jamie Drysdale	0	1	1	+3	4	0.00	0	0	23:05
24	Nick Seeler	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	0	1	21:03
36	Emil Andrae	0	0	0	+3	4	0.07	1	0	18:47
8	Cam York	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	1	10:37

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Samuel Ersson	29	2	27	.931	3.64	+1.64

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.82	+0.70	+0.27	+0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	19:31
91 Josh Doan R	+1.09	+0.70	+0.43	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:32
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.61	+0.75	+0.24	-0.66	+0.30	-0.02	0.00	—	18:12
92 Colten Ellis G	+0.41	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.41	60:00
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.41	+0.75	+0.29	-0.87	+0.15	0.00	+0.09	—	23:49
25 Owen Power D	+0.23	0.00	+0.12	+0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:34
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	10:34
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.05	0.00	+0.04	-0.30	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	7:32
9 Josh Norris C	-0.25	+0.55	+0.34	-1.17	0.00	+0.05	-0.02	—	17:35
22 Jack Quinn R	-0.27	+0.55	+0.18	-0.94	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	15:26
78 Jacob Bryson D	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:06
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	-0.36	0.00	+0.15	-0.11	-0.38	0.00	-0.02	—	16:34
6 Zach Benson L	-0.36	0.00	+0.06	-0.57	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	13:57
71 Ryan McLeod C	-0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.56	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	20:13
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.79	0.00	-0.01	+0.17	—	11:09
72 Tage Thompson C	-0.87	0.00	+0.13	-0.84	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	17:34
19 Peyton Krebs C	-1.10	0.00	+0.02	-1.07	-0.15	+0.05	+0.05	—	9:31
21 Conor Timmins D	-1.12	0.00	0.00	-1.20	-0.15	0.00	+0.23	—	16:56
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-1.50	0.00	+0.09	-1.71	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	20:57

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
14 Sean Couturier C	+3.26	+0.55	+0.06	+2.24	+0.30	+0.07	+0.03	—	20:27
27 Noah Cates L	+2.72	+1.45	+0.66	+0.43	0.00	-0.04	+0.22	—	17:43
36 Emil Andrae D	+2.51	0.00	+0.05	+2.44	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:47
9 Jamie Drysdale D	+2.48	+0.55	0.00	+1.95	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:05
39 Matvei Michkov R	+2.46	+1.40	+0.06	+1.30	-0.30	0.00	0.00	—	15:37
74 Owen Tippett R	+2.42	+0.75	+0.92	+0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:34
10 Bobby Brink R	+2.26	+1.45	+0.39	+0.43	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:52
33 Samuel Ersson G	+1.64	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.64	59:57
11 Travis Konecny R	+1.35	+1.30	+0.13	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	16:35
6 Travis Sanheim D	+1.27	+1.25	+0.16	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	23:42
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	+1.22	+0.55	0.00	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:02
19 Garnet Hathaway R	+1.21	0.00	+0.24	+0.97	-0.08	0.00	+0.07	—	12:17
18 Rodrigo Abols C	+1.08	0.00	+0.19	+0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:28
46 Trevor Zegras C	+0.64	+0.75	+0.31	-0.80	+0.38	+0.03	-0.02	—	14:06
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L	+0.45	0.00	+0.15	+0.37	-0.08	0.00	0.00	—	9:32
24 Nick Seeler D	+0.21	0.00	+0.03	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	21:03
5 Egor Zamula D	+0.09	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:32
8 Cam York D	-0.33	0.00	+0.03	-0.29	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	10:37
22 Christian Dvorak C	-0.72	0.00	+0.11	-0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.