| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:26 | |
Carter Verhaeghe (5) Sam Bennett (7), A.J. Greer (5) · wrist xG 0.13 | 0–1 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| 3rd Period | |||
| 13:41 | |
Ryan O'Reilly (9) Michael Bunting (10), Nicolas Hague (6) · backhand xG 0.36 | 1–1 ▶ |
| Overtime | |||
| 4:03 | |
Steven Stamkos (8) Ryan O'Reilly (12), Roman Josi (8) · wrist xG 0.23 | 2–1 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NSH | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.64 | Expected goals | 4.57 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 1 |
| 2.55 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.76 |
| 60 | Shot attempts | 57 |
| 48 | Unblocked attempts | 45 |
| 29 | Shots on goal | 31 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:07 | FLA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 61–39%
NSH had led since 3:45 of the 1st, by as much as 74% |
| 14:10 | FLA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 2.01–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:00 to 17:00 of the 2nd; neither team scored |
| 19:34 | NSH | Goalie | Goalie · Saros +2.2 goals saved
1 goal on 3.21 xG, 24 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:46 | FLA | Goalie | Goalie · Bobrovsky +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.06 xG, 15 shots on goal |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 56 | Erik Haula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 1 | 22:56 |
| 90 | Ryan O'Reilly | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 1 | 22:27 |
| 9 | Filip Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 1.06 | 3 | 1 | 19:20 |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | 18:29 |
| 91 | Steven Stamkos | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.39 | 2 | 0 | 17:38 |
| 81 | Jonathan Marchessault | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 0 | 17:31 |
| 77 | Luke Evangelista | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 |
| 9 | Fedor Svechkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.35 | 1 | 0 | 12:42 |
| 71 | Matthew Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 | 12:21 |
| 58 | Michael Bunting | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 1 | 12:17 |
| 49 | Reid Schaefer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 08:41 |
| 89 | Ozzy Wiesblatt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 00:15 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 59 | Roman Josi | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.11 | 0 | 2 | 27:08 |
| 41 | Nicolas Hague | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 2 | 23:22 |
| 76 | Brady Skjei | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 23:05 |
| 2 | Adam Wilsby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 |
| 3 | Nick Blankenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | 11:54 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | 31 | 1 | 30 | .968 | 4.57 | +3.57 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.55 | 1 | 1 | 22:13 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 1 | 22:00 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 3 | 0 | 21:21 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.98 | 1 | 0 | 21:19 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.65 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 0 | 17:42 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 2 | 0 | 14:07 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 0 | 10:59 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.12 | 1 | 0 | 08:34 |
| 23 | Jack Studnicka | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 07:03 |
| 73 | Noah Gregor | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 06:27 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 3 | Seth Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 26:29 |
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 | 24:12 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 2 | 23:49 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.17 | 4 | 3 | 19:23 |
| 26 | Uvis Balinskis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 10:30 |
| 73 | Donovan Sebrango | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 29 | 2 | 27 | .931 | 4.64 | +2.64 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 Juuse Saros G | +3.57 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +3.57 | 64:03 |
| 90 Ryan O'Reilly C | +2.06 | +1.45 | +0.45 | +0.09 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | — | 22:27 |
| 58 Michael Bunting L | +1.35 | +0.70 | +0.26 | +0.04 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:17 |
| 9 Filip Forsberg L | +1.27 | 0.00 | +0.69 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 19:20 |
| 59 Roman Josi D | +1.22 | +0.55 | +0.07 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 27:08 |
| 77 Luke Evangelista R | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:50 |
| 81 Jonathan Marchessault R | +0.96 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.58 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:31 |
| 40 Fedor Svechkov C | +0.89 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:42 |
| 56 Erik Haula L | +0.77 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.43 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | — | 22:56 |
| 41 Nicolas Hague D | +0.76 | +0.55 | +0.03 | -0.03 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 23:22 |
| 83 Adam Wilsby D | +0.74 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:43 |
| 91 Steven Stamkos C | +0.53 | +0.75 | +0.25 | -0.35 | -0.15 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 17:38 |
| 76 Brady Skjei D | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.08 | — | 23:05 |
| 71 Matthew Wood R | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.33 | -0.02 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 12:21 |
| 49 Reid Schaefer L | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 8:41 |
| 89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0:15 |
| 24 Spencer Stastney D | -0.01 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 11:54 |
| 37 Nick Blankenburg D | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | -0.30 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:30 |
| 47 Michael McCarron C | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.02 | — | 18:29 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | +2.64 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.64 | 64:03 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | +1.97 | +0.55 | +0.38 | +1.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:59 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | +1.72 | +0.70 | +0.64 | +0.43 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | 21:19 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | +1.54 | +0.75 | +0.42 | +0.43 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.04 | — | 17:43 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +1.31 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.49 | +0.60 | -0.07 | +0.02 | — | 17:42 |
| 63 Brad Marchand L | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.36 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.03 | — | 22:00 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.20 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 23:49 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:13 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 24:12 |
| 26 Uvis Balinskis D | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 10:30 |
| 6 Donovan Sebrango D | -0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:05 |
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.36 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.01 | — | 22:13 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | -0.38 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.58 | +0.15 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 21:21 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | -0.49 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 14:07 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | -0.67 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 26:29 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | -0.80 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.91 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 19:23 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | -1.24 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -1.30 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 8:34 |
| 18 Noah Gregor L | -1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:27 |
| 53 Jack Studnicka C | -1.28 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.25 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 7:03 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.