Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 5–1 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Thursday, December 4, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	2	2	1	5	24
Carolina HurricanesCAR	1	0	0	1	33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:53	TOR	Bobby McMann (7) Nicolas Roy (6), Jake McCabe (8) · snap xG 0.12	1–0 ▶
11:45	TOR	Scott Laughton (2) Philippe Myers (1), Simon Benoit (3) · snap xG 0.25	2–0 ▶
15:45	CAR	Seth Jarvis (16) Shayne Gostisbehere (16), Sebastian Aho (17) · snap xG 0.22	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:44	TOR	Matthew Knies (7) Max Domi (7), Morgan Rielly (17) · backhand xG 0.16	3–1 ▶
10:39	TOR	Auston Matthews (11) Max Domi (8), Matthew Knies (21) · snap xG 0.27	4–1 ▶
3rd Period
18:16	TOR	Bobby McMann (8)EN Nicolas Roy (7) · backhand xG 0.80	5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 37%Deserve to win63% CAR

TOR		CAR
4.47	Expected goals	3.97
5	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.52	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.00
39	Shot attempts	79
33	Unblocked attempts	55
24	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:44	CAR	Goalie	Goalie · Andersen −2.0 goals saved 3 goals on 0.99 xG, 8 shots on goal
20:00	TOR	Goalie change	Goalie change · Hildeby in for Woll The start of the 3rd; Woll had allowed 1 goal on 24 shots (2.46 xG)
3rd Period
15:47	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 4–1 With 4:13 left
16:49	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 4–1 With 3:11 left; TOR scored at 18:16 of the 3rd (5–1)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	1	0	1	+2	8	0.79	1	6	20:08
89	Matthew Knies	1	1	2	+2	3	0.22	1	0	18:04
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	-1	6	0.74	2	0	16:49
88	William Nylander	0	0	0	-1	4	0.61	0	0	15:30
11	Max Domi	0	2	2	+2	1	0.01	0	0	14:52
10	Nicolas Roy	0	2	2	+2	1	0.10	0	0	14:36
74	Bobby McMann	2	0	2	+2	3	0.94	2	0	14:33
21	Scott Laughton	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	0	2	14:19
53	Easton Cowan	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	0	13:55
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	5	0	13:27
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	2	10:45
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	10:00
Defense
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	+1	2	0.35	0	2	24:23
22	Jake McCabe	0	1	1	+3	1	0.00	1	3	22:23
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	22:03
44	Morgan Rielly	0	1	1	+1	3	0.12	1	2	19:52
44	Simon Benoit	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	4	1	17:03
51	Philippe Myers	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	11:18

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	24	1	23	.958	2.46	+1.46
Dennis Hildeby	9	0	9	1.000	1.51	+1.51

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	0	1	1	-1	4	0.28	0	0	19:38
24	Seth Jarvis	1	0	1	0	5	0.73	1	0	18:53
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	0	11	0.67	3	1	17:45
53	Jackson Blake	0	0	0	-3	1	0.21	0	0	16:55
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	-3	6	0.33	0	0	15:42
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	3	0	15:02
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	0	0	0	-3	3	0.29	0	0	14:51
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	-1	5	0.25	5	0	14:04
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	13:41
71	Taylor Hall	0	0	0	-1	6	0.14	1	1	13:10
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	0	2	0.31	2	0	12:32
77	Mark Jankowski	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	2	0	12:17
Defense
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	-2	6	0.06	0	0	25:21
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	1	1	-1	3	0.08	0	0	21:39
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	-3	10	0.13	0	0	21:39
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	0	0	0	5	0.02	0	1	16:57
6	Mike Reilly	0	0	0	-1	4	0.10	0	0	15:10
64	Joel Nystrom	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	0	13:21

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Frederik Andersen	23	4	19	.826	3.11	-0.89

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
34 Auston Matthews C	+2.14	+0.75	+0.51	+0.71	-0.15	+0.06	+0.26	—	20:08
11 Max Domi C	+2.06	+1.40	+0.01	+0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:52
23 Matthew Knies L	+2.02	+1.30	+0.14	+0.41	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	18:04
22 Jake McCabe D	+1.60	+0.55	0.00	+0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	22:23
24 Scott Laughton C	+1.54	+0.75	+0.29	+0.35	0.00	+0.05	+0.10	—	14:19
35 Dennis Hildeby G	+1.51	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.51	20:00
60 Joseph Woll G	+1.46	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.46	40:00
74 Bobby McMann C	+1.33	+1.50	+0.61	-0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:33
55 Nicolas Roy C	+1.08	+1.40	+0.07	-0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:36
51 Philippe Myers D	+0.85	+0.70	0.00	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:18
88 William Nylander R	+0.70	0.00	+0.40	+0.19	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:30
44 Morgan Rielly D	+0.60	+0.55	+0.08	+0.06	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	19:52
2 Simon Benoit D	+0.34	+0.55	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	17:03
91 John Tavares C	+0.32	0.00	+0.48	-0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:49
18 Steven Lorentz C	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.03	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	10:45
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:00
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.43	0.00	+0.23	-0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	24:23
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.48	0.00	+0.07	-0.38	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	22:03
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.49	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:27
53 Easton Cowan R	-0.57	0.00	+0.02	-0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:55

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.21	+0.70	+0.05	+0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:39
24 Seth Jarvis C	+1.11	+0.75	+0.48	-0.11	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:53
6 Mike Reilly D	+0.83	0.00	+0.06	+0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:10
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.55	0.00	+0.20	+0.40	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	12:32
77 Mark Jankowski L	+0.48	0.00	+0.14	+0.31	0.00	+0.05	-0.02	—	12:17
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+0.41	0.00	+0.43	+0.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:45
71 Taylor Hall L	+0.35	0.00	+0.09	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:10
11 Jordan Staal C	+0.34	0.00	+0.10	+0.27	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	15:02
53 Jackson Blake R	+0.33	0.00	+0.14	+0.23	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	16:55
26 Sean Walker D	+0.31	0.00	+0.08	+0.05	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	21:39
22 Logan Stankoven C	+0.19	0.00	+0.21	+0.03	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	15:42
20 Sebastian Aho C	+0.17	+0.55	+0.18	-0.53	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	19:38
28 William Carrier L	+0.15	0.00	+0.16	-0.16	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:04
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	-0.02	0.00	+0.19	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:51
64 Joel Nystrom D	-0.17	0.00	+0.01	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:21
48 Jordan Martinook L	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:41
21 Alexander Nikishin D	-0.46	0.00	+0.04	-0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	25:21
5 Jalen Chatfield D	-0.58	0.00	+0.02	-0.48	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	16:57
31 Frederik Andersen G	-0.89	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.89	57:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.