| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 32 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 32 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:17 | Connor McDavid (12) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13) · wrist xG 0.06 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 7:34 | Vasily Podkolzin (5) Leon Draisaitl (17), Evan Bouchard (19) · snap xG 0.03 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 11:27 | Leon Draisaitl (16)PP Connor McDavid (26), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14) · snap xG 0.15 | 0–3 ▶ | |
| 16:07 | Eeli Tolvanen (4)PP Brandon Montour (9), Kaapo Kakko (1) · slap xG 0.08 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 19:33 | Frederick Gaudreau (1) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.23 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 2:28 | Matt Savoie (4)SH Evan Bouchard (20), Adam Henrique (6) · backhand xG 0.12 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 6:14 | Connor McDavid (13)PP Evan Bouchard (21), Leon Draisaitl (18) · wrist xG 0.07 | 2–5 ▶ | |
| 8:53 | Zach Hyman (2) Mattias Ekholm (10) · backhand xG 0.15 | 2–6 ▶ | |
| 9:30 | Jared McCann (4) Jordan Eberle (7), Matty Beniers (12) · wrist xG 0.18 | 3–6 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:03 | Mattias Janmark (1) Andrew Mangiapane (6) · snap xG 0.33 | 3–7 ▶ | |
| 6:59 | Connor McDavid (14)PP Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (15), Leon Draisaitl (19) · snap xG 0.06 | 3–8 ▶ | |
| 8:58 | Matt Savoie (5)PP Adam Henrique (7), Mattias Ekholm (11) · snap xG 0.52 | 3–9 ▶ | |
| 19:55 | Jani Nyman (4) Shane Wright (7), Kaapo Kakko (2) · wrist xG 0.27 | 4–9 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| SEA | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.23 | Expected goals | 4.34 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 9 |
| 3.61 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.36 |
| 74 | Shot attempts | 53 |
| 52 | Unblocked attempts | 44 |
| 32 | Shots on goal | 32 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:04 | EDM | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · EDM takes the lead, 61–39%
SEA had led since 3:54 of the 1st, by as much as 61% |
| 11:27 | SEA | Goalie | Goalie · Daccord −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.83 xG, 9 shots on goal |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 6:14 | SEA | Goalie change | Goalie change · Grubauer in for Daccord
6:14 of the 2nd; Daccord had allowed 5 goals on 14 shots (1.53 xG) |
| 19:00 | SEA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · SEA takes the lead, 64–36%
EDM had led since 10:04 of the 1st, by as much as 66% |
| 19:00 | SEA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.59–0.27
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:10 to 19:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 8:58 | EDM | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · EDM takes the lead, 63–37%
SEA had led since 19:00 of the 2nd, by as much as 68% |
| 9:00 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 2.04–0.26
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:10 of the 2nd to 9:10 of the 3rd; goals 3–0 |
| 19:20 | EDM | No shift | No shift · Clattenburg, 10:38 on the bench
No shift after 6:11 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (5:58) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 10 | Matty Beniers | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 |
| 7 | Jordan Eberle | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.44 | 1 | 0 | 16:53 |
| 9 | Chandler Stephenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 |
| 19 | Jared McCann | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.60 | 0 | 1 | 16:38 |
| 27 | Berkly Catton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| 17 | Eeli Tolvanen | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.19 | 1 | 0 | 15:21 |
| 89 | Frederick Gaudreau | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.39 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 |
| 51 | Shane Wright | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 2 | 1 | 13:52 |
| 84 | Kaapo Kakko | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 |
| 26 | Ryan Winterton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 13:02 |
| 24 | Tye Kartye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.06 | 5 | 0 | 10:51 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 29 | Vince Dunn | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 |
| 6 | Adam Larsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 0.03 | 3 | 4 | 21:24 |
| 55 | Ryan Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 0.29 | 2 | 0 | 19:48 |
| 62 | Brandon Montour | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 8 | 0.84 | 4 | 0 | 18:24 |
| 41 | Ryker Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 17:18 |
| 4 | Jamie Oleksiak | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord | 14 | 5 | 9 | .643 | 1.53 | -3.47 |
| Philipp Grubauer | 18 | 4 | 14 | .778 | 2.81 | -1.19 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 19:41 |
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.43 | 1 | 0 | 16:08 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.08 | 3 | 1 | 16:05 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 |
| 26 | Andrew Mangiapane | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 10:01 |
| 20 | Curtis Lazar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 1 | 09:23 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.13 | 3 | 2 | 21:26 |
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 20:36 |
| 27 | Brett Kulak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 2 | 19:56 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 3 | 19:30 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 0.12 | 3 | 0 | 19:04 |
| 75 | Alec Regula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard | 32 | 4 | 28 | .875 | 4.23 | +0.23 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 Brandon Montour D | +2.28 | +0.70 | +0.55 | +1.50 | -0.45 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:24 |
| 84 Kaapo Kakko R | +2.01 | +1.10 | +0.05 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:39 |
| 51 Shane Wright C | +1.78 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +0.85 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | — | 13:52 |
| 38 Jani Nyman R | +1.67 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 12:15 |
| 19 Jared McCann L | +1.64 | +0.75 | +0.39 | +0.45 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.07 | — | 16:38 |
| 7 Jordan Eberle R | +1.56 | +0.70 | +0.28 | +0.45 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:53 |
| 55 Ryan Lindgren D | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +1.07 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:48 |
| 10 Matty Beniers C | +1.18 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.33 | +0.15 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 17:29 |
| 89 Frederick Gaudreau C | +1.16 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.18 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.02 | — | 14:06 |
| 29 Vince Dunn D | +0.80 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 24:28 |
| 20 Eeli Tolvanen R | +0.77 | +0.75 | +0.12 | +0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:21 |
| 6 Adam Larsson D | +0.34 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 21:24 |
| 12 Tye Kartye L | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:51 |
| 26 Ryan Winterton C | +0.09 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:02 |
| 41 Ryker Evans D | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:18 |
| 77 Berkly Catton C | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.18 | -0.20 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:07 |
| 9 Chandler Stephenson C | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 16:49 |
| 24 Jamie Oleksiak D | -1.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:19 |
| 31 Philipp Grubauer G | -1.19 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.19 | 33:46 |
| 35 Joey Daccord G | -3.47 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.47 | 25:58 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Leon Draisaitl C | +2.64 | +2.55 | +0.18 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:10 |
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +2.49 | +2.95 | +0.26 | -0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 17:20 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +1.38 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.53 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 16:05 |
| 88 Andrew Mangiapane L | +1.38 | +0.70 | +0.31 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 15:29 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +1.34 | +1.95 | +0.04 | -0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:36 |
| 19 Adam Henrique C | +1.29 | +1.25 | +0.22 | -0.29 | -0.15 | +0.01 | +0.25 | — | 15:26 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | +1.11 | +1.50 | +0.72 | -1.18 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | — | 19:41 |
| 13 Mattias Janmark C | +0.90 | +0.75 | +0.44 | -0.41 | +0.15 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 16:56 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +0.87 | +1.25 | +0.08 | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:04 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +0.82 | +0.75 | +0.28 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:08 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | +0.76 | +1.95 | +0.06 | -1.22 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 15:39 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 21:26 |
| 30 Calvin Pickard G | +0.23 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.23 | 60:00 |
| 75 Alec Regula D | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 18:12 |
| 20 Curtis Lazar C | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | 9:23 |
| 10 Trent Frederic C | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | — | 10:01 |
| 64 Connor Clattenburg C | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.31 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 5:58 |
| 27 Brett Kulak D | -0.48 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 19:56 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | -0.69 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 19:30 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.