hockeystats.io

Buffalo SabresBUF 1–4 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Friday, December 5, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 100 1 35
Winnipeg JetsWPG 121 4 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:24 WPG Kyle Connor (15) Gabriel Vilardi (12), Dylan Samberg (4) · wrist xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
14:44 BUF Jason Zucker (9)PP Josh Norris (3), Rasmus Dahlin (17) · wrist xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:22 WPG Tanner Pearson (4) Cole Koepke (3) · wrist xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
18:42 WPG Cole Koepke (1) Morgan Barron (4), Dylan DeMelo (11) · backhand xG 0.17 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
19:26 WPG Gabriel Vilardi (12)EN Kyle Connor (19), Mark Scheifele (21) · wrist xG 0.88 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 75%Deserve to win25% WPG
BUFWPG
3.66Expected goals3.00
1Goals (no shootout)4
2.09Expected goals, 5 on 51.82
67Shot attempts42
56Unblocked attempts35
35Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:50 BUF xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WPG 1.26–0.05
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:20 to 16:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
11:33 WPG Goalie Goalie · Comrie +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.10 xG, 31 shots on goal
13:50 BUF No shift No shift · Bryson, 14:50 on the bench
No shift after 3:48 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (9:14) before that
17:39 BUF Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Luukkonen, down 3–1
With 2:21 left

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Peyton Krebs: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:08) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:18) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:56) Tage Thompson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:06) Conor Timmins: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:11) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:33) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:01) Jordan Greenway: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:56) Owen Power: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:01) Morgan Barron: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:02) Kyle Connor: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:23) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:15) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:17) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:33) Jason Zucker: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:41) Tage Thompson: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:50) Josh Doan: wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 9:28) Bowen Byram: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:19) Nino Niederreiter: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:03) Josh Morrissey: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:07) Zach Benson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:45) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:05) Conor Timmins: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:15) Jordan Greenway: bat, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:17) Neal Pionk: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:18) Josh Norris: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:41) Jason Zucker: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 14:43) Jack Quinn: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 14:57) Josh Morrissey: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:31) Kyle Connor: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:48) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:55) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:13) Mark Scheifele: slap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 19:56) Vladislav Namestnikov: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:13) Neal Pionk: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:25) Zach Benson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:39) Owen Power: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:44) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:02) Neal Pionk: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:23) Neal Pionk: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:27) Jack Quinn: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:44) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:32) Conor Timmins: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:11) Alex Tuch: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 6:53) Alex Tuch: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:54) Tage Thompson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:14) Logan Stanley: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:23) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:26) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:47) Peyton Krebs: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:55) Peyton Krebs: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:03) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:09) Adam Lowry: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:18) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:19) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:46) Zach Benson: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:39) Logan Stanley: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:51) Jack Quinn: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:35) Ryan McLeod: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:32) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:33) Conor Timmins: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:17) Jack Quinn: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:51) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:48) Jacob Bryson: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:26) Conor Timmins: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:00) Kyle Connor: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:29) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:50) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:34) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:14) Neal Pionk: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:54) Tage Thompson: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:11) Tage Thompson: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:12) Conor Timmins: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:32) Conor Timmins: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:04) Jason Zucker: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:33) Tage Thompson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:27) Morgan Barron: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 15:41) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:16) Dylan Samberg: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:08) Vladislav Namestnikov: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:23) Alex Tuch: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 18:45) Jason Zucker: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:46) Jason Zucker: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:47) Alex Tuch: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:48) Bowen Byram: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:45) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:47) Kyle Connor: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:24) Jason Zucker: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:44) Tanner Pearson: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:22) Cole Koepke: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:42) Gabriel Vilardi: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.88 (P3 19:26)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Ryan McLeod 000 0 40.07 0018:13
72 Tage Thompson 000 -2 70.39 1016:55
17 Jason Zucker 101 -1 70.65 0016:32
89 Alex Tuch 000 -2 40.53 2016:09
22 Jack Quinn 000 -1 40.32 2016:01
9 Josh Norris 011 -3 10.07 0015:43
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 40.12 4014:50
91 Josh Doan 000 -1 20.29 1114:21
12 Jordan Greenway 000 0 60.23 4013:42
6 Zach Benson 000 -2 30.18 0013:24
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 10.09 5113:11
86 Noah Ostlund 000 -1 20.08 0010:32
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 -1 70.15 1224:42
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 -1 10.07 1123:21
24 Bowen Byram 000 -2 20.10 0021:46
25 Owen Power 000 -1 30.04 0020:17
21 Conor Timmins 000 -1 80.24 1218:37
78 Jacob Bryson 000 -2 10.02 0009:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 22319 .864 2.12 -0.88

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 011 +2 50.41 1020:48
81 Kyle Connor 112 +2 40.35 0020:28
13 Gabriel Vilardi 112 +2 20.88 0120:09
17 Adam Lowry 000 0 10.10 2014:51
91 Cole Perfetti 000 0 20.05 0014:37
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 00.00 1013:43
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 10.00 5112:57
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 30.14 2112:52
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 0 10.03 3012:08
36 Morgan Barron 011 +2 20.16 3011:57
45 Cole Koepke 112 +2 10.17 4111:34
70 Tanner Pearson 101 +2 20.17 1110:41
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 +2 50.14 1123:57
4 Neal Pionk 000 +2 50.09 3123:38
54 Dylan Samberg 011 +2 30.07 1223:30
2 Dylan DeMelo 011 +2 10.01 3021:01
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 30.23 2015:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Eric Comrie 35134 .971 3.66 +2.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Jason Zucker L +1.29 +0.75 +0.42 +0.20 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 — 16:32
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.99 +0.55 +0.10 +0.42 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 24:42
22 Jack Quinn R +0.43 0.00 +0.21 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:01
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.39 0.00 +0.05 +0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:13
9 Josh Norris C +0.38 +0.70 +0.05 -0.35 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:43
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.37 0.00 +0.08 +0.27 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 14:50
89 Alex Tuch R +0.32 0.00 +0.35 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:09
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.31 0.00 +0.06 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 13:11
25 Owen Power D +0.30 0.00 +0.02 +0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:17
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.29 0.00 +0.04 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:21
12 Jordan Greenway L +0.28 0.00 +0.15 +0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:42
21 Conor Timmins D +0.04 0.00 +0.16 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:37
72 Tage Thompson C +0.03 0.00 +0.26 -0.36 +0.15 +0.02 -0.04 — 16:55
6 Zach Benson L -0.13 0.00 +0.12 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:24
91 Josh Doan R -0.18 0.00 +0.19 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:21
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.25 0.00 +0.05 -0.45 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 10:32
78 Jacob Bryson D -0.45 0.00 +0.01 -0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:14
4 Bowen Byram D -0.64 0.00 +0.06 -0.54 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:46
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G -0.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.88 58:30

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Eric Comrie G +2.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.66 60:00
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +2.42 +1.45 +0.57 +0.26 +0.15 -0.02 +0.01 — 20:09
81 Kyle Connor L +2.06 +1.45 +0.23 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:28
45 Cole Koepke L +2.02 +1.45 +0.11 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:34
70 Tanner Pearson L +1.39 +0.75 +0.11 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:41
36 Morgan Barron C +1.14 +0.70 +0.11 +0.50 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:57
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.97 +0.55 +0.27 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:48
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.77 +0.55 +0.05 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:30
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.73 +0.55 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:01
4 Neal Pionk D +0.71 0.00 +0.06 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:38
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.48 0.00 +0.09 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:57
17 Adam Lowry C +0.10 0.00 +0.07 -0.15 +0.15 +0.05 -0.02 — 14:51
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.12 0.00 +0.09 -0.25 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:52
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:57
64 Logan Stanley D -0.17 0.00 +0.15 -0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:09
62 Nino Niederreiter R -0.19 0.00 +0.02 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:08
57 Elias Salomonsson D -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:41
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.52 0.00 +0.03 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:37
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.52 -0.15 +0.01 -0.06 — 13:43

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.