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Colorado AvalancheCOL 3–2 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 210 3 28
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 110 2 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:09 PHI Sean Couturier (5) Noah Juulsen (3), Owen Tippett (10) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
8:28 COL Brent Burns (4) Martin Necas (25), Jack Drury (6) · snap xG 0.06 1–1 ▶
19:08 COL Brock Nelson (10)PP Nathan MacKinnon (25), Cale Makar (26) · wrist xG 0.31 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:47 COL Valeri Nichushkin (7) Victor Olofsson (12), Devon Toews (9) · snap xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
5:58 PHI Travis Konecny (7) Emil Andrae (6), Christian Dvorak (11) · wrist xG 0.14 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 52%Deserve to win48% PHI
COLPHI
2.45Expected goals2.35
3Goals (no shootout)2
1.71Expected goals, 5 on 52.21
67Shot attempts58
45Unblocked attempts39
28Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:00 PHI xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.43–0.28
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:30 to 11:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored
16:20 COL No shift No shift · Bardakov, 12:04 on the bench
No shift after 6:17 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (4:45) before that
18:01 PHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ersson, down 3–2
With 1:59 left
19:45 PHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ersson, down 3–2
With 0:15 left

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots
Bobby Brink: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:28) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:16) Josh Manson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:13) Devon Toews: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:14) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:29) Brent Burns: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:02) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:14) Samuel Girard: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:21) Samuel Girard: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:15) Sean Couturier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:26) Egor Zamula: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:37) Noah Juulsen: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:42) Brent Burns: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:11) Brent Burns: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:07) Josh Manson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:16) Martin Necas: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:49) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:27) Martin Necas: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:38) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:47) Cale Makar: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:05) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:06) Emil Andrae: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:30) Devon Toews: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:40) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:41) Travis Konecny: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:57) Emil Andrae: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:19) Josh Manson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:27) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:03) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:12) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 3:15) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:23) Nick Seeler: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:39) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:55) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:23) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:20) Travis Konecny: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:41) Ross Colton: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:50) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:48) Rodrigo Abols: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:57) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:13) Sam Malinski: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:06) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:06) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:17) Brent Burns: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:57) Travis Konecny: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:22) Brent Burns: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:37) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:44) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:11) Devon Toews: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:49) Martin Necas: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:46) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:30) Jack Drury: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:41) Noah Cates: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:48) Garnet Hathaway: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:16) Travis Sanheim: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:27) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:39) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:40) Martin Necas: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:42) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:48) Travis Konecny: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 4:51) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:54) Owen Tippett: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:40) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 7:43) Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:50) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:09) Ross Colton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:18) Travis Konecny: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:24) Travis Konecny: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:25) Travis Konecny: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:43) Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 10:56) Noah Cates: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:27) Cale Makar: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:48) Devon Toews: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 12:06) Sam Malinski: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:52) Travis Konecny: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:31) Nick Seeler: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:19) Travis Konecny: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:16) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:42) Nick Seeler: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:59) Sean Couturier: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:09) Brent Burns: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:28) Brock Nelson: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 19:08) Valeri Nichushkin: GOAL, snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:47) Travis Konecny: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 0 90.35 1122:53
88 Martin Necas 011 +1 60.33 0021:36
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 50.20 1020:08
11 Brock Nelson 101 -1 10.31 3319:18
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 -1 40.12 0218:32
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 30.08 0115:41
43 Valeri Nichushkin 101 +1 30.09 2015:22
18 Jack Drury 011 +1 20.04 0115:04
95 Victor Olofsson 011 0 30.25 0110:21
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 10.00 1010:18
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 10.00 1107:40
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 00.00 1104:45
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 +1 50.13 0325:51
7 Devon Toews 011 +1 50.19 1020:53
84 Brent Burns 101 0 70.15 0019:28
70 Sam Malinski 000 -1 30.05 2016:44
49 Samuel Girard 000 -1 50.03 1116:43
42 Josh Manson 000 0 40.12 4316:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 25223 .920 2.35 +0.35

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Travis Konecny 101 +1 100.69 2220:40
46 Trevor Zegras 000 +1 80.37 0119:30
22 Christian Dvorak 011 +1 60.60 1318:19
27 Noah Cates 000 0 20.19 1017:45
14 Sean Couturier 101 -1 30.09 2317:40
10 Bobby Brink 000 0 20.02 0116:09
74 Owen Tippett 011 -1 30.03 2115:30
17 Nikita Grebenkin 000 0 00.00 0214:53
39 Matvei Michkov 000 -1 20.02 0114:25
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 0 20.13 4009:20
18 Rodrigo Abols 000 0 10.01 0108:27
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 10.00 4007:58
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 000 0 30.00 1125:53
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 0 10.03 0123:16
24 Nick Seeler 000 0 50.04 1122:10
36 Emil Andrae 011 +1 60.09 1121:59
47 Noah Juulsen 011 0 10.03 1010:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Ersson 28325 .893 2.45 -0.55

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.86 +0.70 +0.17 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 10:21
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.83 +0.75 +0.06 -0.13 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:22
88 Martin Necas C +0.82 +0.70 +0.22 +0.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:36
18 Jack Drury C +0.78 +0.55 +0.03 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:04
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.75 +0.70 +0.23 -0.10 -0.15 +0.06 +0.01 — 22:53
8 Cale Makar D +0.56 +0.55 +0.09 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 25:51
7 Devon Toews D +0.52 +0.55 +0.12 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:53
11 Brock Nelson C +0.45 +0.75 +0.20 -0.58 0.00 -0.05 +0.13 — 19:18
84 Brent Burns D +0.38 +0.75 +0.10 -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 19:28
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G +0.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.35 60:00
49 Samuel Girard D +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:43
17 Parker Kelly C +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.05 +0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 10:18
42 Josh Manson D +0.05 0.00 +0.08 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:43
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.03 0.00 +0.13 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:08
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 4:45
94 Joel Kiviranta L 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:40
92 Gabriel Landeskog L -0.25 0.00 +0.08 -0.46 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 18:32
70 Sam Malinski D -0.26 0.00 +0.04 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:44
20 Ross Colton C -0.32 0.00 +0.05 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 15:41

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Travis Konecny R +2.43 +0.75 +0.45 +1.22 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 20:40
22 Christian Dvorak C +2.21 +0.55 +0.39 +1.24 0.00 -0.06 +0.09 — 18:19
46 Trevor Zegras C +1.56 0.00 +0.24 +1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 19:30
36 Emil Andrae D +1.26 +0.70 +0.06 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:59
24 Nick Seeler D +0.53 0.00 +0.03 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:10
14 Sean Couturier C +0.49 +0.75 +0.06 -0.44 0.00 -0.03 +0.15 — 17:40
47 Noah Juulsen D +0.47 +0.70 +0.02 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 10:11
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:53
19 Garnet Hathaway R +0.24 0.00 +0.08 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:20
74 Owen Tippett R +0.14 +0.55 +0.02 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:30
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.09 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:16
18 Rodrigo Abols C +0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.01 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 8:27
29 Nikita Grebenkin R +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 14:53
5 Egor Zamula D -0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:03
27 Noah Cates L -0.03 0.00 +0.12 -0.24 0.00 +0.05 +0.04 — 17:45
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:58
10 Bobby Brink R -0.16 0.00 +0.01 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:09
39 Matvei Michkov R -0.39 0.00 +0.02 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:25
33 Samuel Ersson G -0.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.55 58:09

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.