Buffalo SabresBUF 4–7 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Monday, December 8, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	3	1	4	29
Calgary FlamesCGY	2	3	2	7	28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:54	CGY	Yegor Sharangovich (5) MacKenzie Weegar (5), Nazem Kadri (19) · deflected xG 0.16	0–1 ▶
13:22	CGY	Rasmus Andersson (7)PP Matt Coronato (8), Nazem Kadri (20) · slap xG 0.09	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
4:24	BUF	Tage Thompson (13)PP Jason Zucker (8), Josh Norris (4) · wrist xG 0.12	1–2 ▶
7:05	CGY	Jonathan Huberdeau (6)PP Matt Coronato (9), Morgan Frost (10) · tip-in xG 0.26	1–3 ▶
13:43	BUF	Owen Power (3) Peyton Krebs (8), Jacob Bryson (3) · wrist xG 0.07	2–3 ▶
14:14	CGY	Nazem Kadri (6) Joel Farabee (8), Yegor Sharangovich (5) · tip-in xG 0.13	2–4 ▶
16:32	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (2) Josh Doan (12), Josh Norris (5) · tip-in xG 0.22	3–4 ▶
17:27	CGY	Yan Kuznetsov (2) Blake Coleman (5) · poke xG 0.31	3–5 ▶
3rd Period
17:29	BUF	Alex Tuch (10)PP Rasmus Dahlin (18), Jason Zucker (9) · tip-in xG 0.12	4–5 ▶
18:12	CGY	Mikael Backlund (5)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.58	4–6 ▶
19:53	CGY	Yegor Sharangovich (6)EN Yan Kuznetsov (3) · wrist xG 0.40	4–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 47%Deserve to win53% CGY

BUF		CGY
3.16	Expected goals	4.27
4	Goals (no shootout)	7
1.75	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.63
66	Shot attempts	47
48	Unblocked attempts	39
29	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
14:14	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Luukkonen −2.3 goals saved 4 goals on 1.73 xG, 18 shots on goal
17:52	CGY	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 67–33% BUF had led since 1:45 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
20:00	BUF	Goalie change	Goalie change · Lyon in for Luukkonen The start of the 3rd; Luukkonen had allowed 5 goals on 22 shots (2.86 xG)
3rd Period
18:03	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 5–4 With 1:57 left; CGY scored at 18:12 of the 3rd (4–6)
18:48	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 6–4 With 1:12 left; CGY scored at 19:53 of the 3rd (4–7)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	-3	5	0.50	0	1	21:42
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	-4	7	0.25	1	1	21:22
9	Josh Norris	0	2	2	-2	6	0.28	0	0	17:57
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	0	17:14
17	Jason Zucker	0	2	2	-2	6	0.64	1	0	17:05
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	2	1	16:19
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	0	1	0.10	1	0	15:39
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	+1	4	0.13	2	0	14:08
19	Peyton Krebs	0	1	1	+1	2	0.09	4	1	13:21
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	-2	4	0.03	2	0	09:44
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	1	0	07:35
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	+1	3	0.24	1	0	07:30
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	1	1	2	-3	6	0.31	1	1	24:51
25	Owen Power	1	0	1	-2	4	0.20	1	0	21:17
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	1	0	20:24
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	-2	3	0.08	0	2	19:54
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	1	17:17
78	Jacob Bryson	0	1	1	+1	3	0.03	1	0	09:00

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	22	5	17	.773	2.86	-2.14
Alex Lyon	4	0	4	1.000	0.42	+0.42

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
10	Jonathan Huberdeau	1	0	1	0	3	0.37	1	0	19:25
91	Nazem Kadri	1	2	3	+2	3	0.24	0	0	18:32
20	Blake Coleman	0	1	1	+2	4	0.39	0	1	17:02
11	Mikael Backlund	1	0	1	+2	4	0.80	0	0	16:29
27	Matt Coronato	0	2	2	-1	3	0.06	0	1	16:10
17	Yegor Sharangovich	2	1	3	+2	4	0.80	0	0	15:27
86	Joel Farabee	0	1	1	+2	2	0.68	0	2	15:11
16	Morgan Frost	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	0	2	14:55
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	1	0	13:51
17	John Beecher	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	10:10
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	07:57
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	0	5	0.21	4	0	06:58
Defense
4	Rasmus Andersson	1	0	1	+2	7	0.22	0	3	25:49
7	Kevin Bahl	0	0	0	+2	2	0.04	1	2	24:14
37	Yan Kuznetsov	1	1	2	+1	2	0.31	1	2	22:12
52	MacKenzie Weegar	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	4	0	22:11
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	4	1	10:40
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	1	10:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dustin Wolf	29	4	25	.862	3.16	-0.84

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
9 Josh Norris C	+1.93	+1.10	+0.18	+0.66	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	17:57
19 Peyton Krebs C	+1.69	+0.70	+0.06	+0.63	+0.22	+0.03	+0.05	—	13:21
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.43	+1.45	+0.20	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	24:51
91 Josh Doan R	+1.42	+0.70	+0.06	+0.81	-0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	15:39
17 Jason Zucker L	+1.29	+1.25	+0.42	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	—	17:05
78 Jacob Bryson D	+1.09	+0.55	+0.02	+0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:00
25 Owen Power D	+0.96	+0.75	+0.13	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	21:17
6 Zach Benson L	+0.70	0.00	+0.08	+0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:08
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.47	+0.75	+0.33	-0.77	+0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	21:42
48 Tyson Kozak C	+0.44	0.00	+0.04	+0.39	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	7:35
34 Alex Lyon G	+0.42	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.42	17:29
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.38	0.00	+0.16	+0.37	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	7:30
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.29	+0.75	+0.16	-0.77	+0.15	-0.05	+0.05	—	21:22
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.23	0.00	+0.01	+0.17	+0.08	0.00	-0.02	—	20:24
21 Conor Timmins D	+0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.11	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:17
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.01	0.00	+0.05	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	19:54
71 Ryan McLeod C	-0.04	0.00	+0.08	-0.16	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	17:14
22 Jack Quinn R	-0.40	0.00	+0.05	-0.37	-0.15	+0.02	+0.05	—	16:19
12 Jordan Greenway L	-0.83	0.00	+0.02	-0.83	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	9:44
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	-2.14	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.14	40:00

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	+3.13	+2.05	+0.52	+0.60	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	15:27
91 Nazem Kadri C	+2.63	+1.85	+0.15	+0.64	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:32
86 Joel Farabee L	+1.98	+0.70	+0.44	+0.43	+0.30	-0.01	+0.12	—	15:11
4 Rasmus Andersson D	+1.34	+0.75	+0.15	+0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	25:49
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	+1.25	+1.45	+0.20	-0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:12
11 Mikael Backlund C	+1.16	+0.75	+0.52	0.00	-0.15	+0.05	-0.02	—	16:29
20 Blake Coleman L	+1.01	+0.70	+0.26	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:02
27 Matt Coronato R	+0.70	+1.40	+0.04	-0.78	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	16:10
7 Kevin Bahl D	+0.40	0.00	+0.02	+0.38	-0.08	0.00	+0.08	—	24:14
52 MacKenzie Weegar D	+0.22	+0.70	+0.04	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:11
70 Ryan Lomberg L	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.19	-0.08	0.00	+0.10	—	7:57
43 Adam Klapka R	+0.19	0.00	+0.13	+0.12	-0.08	+0.01	0.00	—	6:58
94 Brayden Pachal D	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	10:40
47 Connor Zary C	+0.14	0.00	+0.05	+0.10	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	—	13:51
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L	+0.11	+0.75	+0.24	-0.86	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:25
44 Joel Hanley D	+0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	10:24
18 John Beecher C	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.07	0.00	—	10:10
16 Morgan Frost C	-0.21	+0.55	0.00	-0.77	-0.15	+0.06	+0.10	—	14:55
32 Dustin Wolf G	-0.92	0.00	—	—	-0.08	—	—	-0.84	60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.