Tuesday, December 9, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CBJ 23%Deserve to win 77% CAR
CBJ CAR
2.67 Expected goals 4.94
1 Goals (no shootout) 4
2.15 Expected goals, 5 on 5 3.29
52 Shot attempts 77
35 Unblocked attempts 57
24 Shots on goal 32
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
5:22
CBJ
Goalie
Goalie · Greaves +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.14 xG, 12 shots on goal
Shot map
CBJ shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → CAR shoots
Jordan Staal: wrap-around, 2 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 0:28)
Sebastian Aho: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:07)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 3:46)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:47)
Sebastian Aho: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:28)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:54)
Nikolaj Ehlers: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:15)
Jackson Blake: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:15)
Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:32)
Jordan Staal: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:44)
Sebastian Aho: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:52)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 8:32)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:23)
Damon Severson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:15)
K'Andre Miller: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:41)
Joel Nystrom: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:53)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:02)
Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:01)
Jordan Staal: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 15:03)
Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:30)
Jordan Staal: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:38)
Alexander Nikishin: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:20)
Dante Fabbro: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:31)
Egor Chinakhov: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:16)
Zach Werenski: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:41)
Denton Mateychuk: slap, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:29)
K'Andre Miller: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:13)
William Carrier: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:27)
Adam Fantilli: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 0:53)
Damon Severson: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:08)
Denton Mateychuk: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:13)
Sean Monahan: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:15)
Sean Monahan: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:17)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:36)
Cole Sillinger: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:49)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:53)
Alexander Nikishin: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:57)
Brendan Gaunce: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:15)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:32)
Kirill Marchenko: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:57)
Dmitri Voronkov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:58)
Dmitri Voronkov: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:59)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 5:22)
Alexander Nikishin: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:00)
Adam Fantilli: poke, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:58)
Mark Jankowski: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:21)
Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:15)
Shayne Gostisbehere: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:25)
Jordan Martinook: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:51)
Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:55)
Mark Jankowski: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:48)
Mark Jankowski: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:49)
Taylor Hall: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:50)
Eric Robinson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:51)
Charlie Coyle: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 15:46)
William Carrier: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:07)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:55)
Logan Stankoven: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:25)
Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:29)
Eric Robinson: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:34)
K'Andre Miller: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:12)
Jordan Staal: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 0:25)
Jalen Chatfield: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 0:31)
Cole Sillinger: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:13)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:17)
William Carrier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:39)
Charlie Coyle: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:50)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:02)
Denton Mateychuk: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:14)
Sean Walker: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:06)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:54)
Eric Robinson: snap, 165 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:21)
Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:57)
Seth Jarvis: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:12)
Kent Johnson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:13)
Jordan Martinook: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 8:11)
Miles Wood: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:55)
Alexander Nikishin: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:20)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:17)
Sebastian Aho: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:26)
Sean Walker: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:56)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:48)
Zach Werenski: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:24)
Ivan Provorov: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:36)
Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:52)
Egor Chinakhov: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:24)
Luca Del Bel Belluz: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:32)
Dmitri Voronkov: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:39)
Seth Jarvis: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:42)
Eric Robinson: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 7:53)
Jordan Staal: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:38)
Jordan Martinook: GOAL, snap, 160 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 18:45)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jet Greaves
31 3 28
.903
4.53
+1.53
Carolina Hurricanes
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
73 Jet Greaves G
+1.53
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.53
57:23
3 Charlie Coyle C
+0.91
0.00
+0.26
+0.71
0.00
-0.05
0.00
—
16:30
86 Kirill Marchenko R
+0.53
+0.55
+0.19
-0.16
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
18:52
10 Dmitri Voronkov L
+0.52
+0.75
+0.10
-0.38
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
18:10
19 Adam Fantilli C
+0.41
0.00
+0.38
-0.12
+0.15
-0.02
+0.02
—
20:21
21 Isac Lundeström C
+0.34
0.00
0.00
+0.19
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
13:18
78 Damon Severson D
+0.14
0.00
+0.06
+0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
19:25
11 Miles Wood L
+0.14
0.00
+0.01
+0.19
-0.15
0.00
+0.09
—
14:03
8 Zach Werenski D
+0.02
0.00
+0.19
-0.32
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
24:08
91 Kent Johnson C
-0.10
0.00
+0.05
-0.22
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
13:08
5 Denton Mateychuk D
-0.39
0.00
+0.01
-0.57
+0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
21:55
23 Sean Monahan C
-0.43
+0.70
+0.09
-1.19
0.00
-0.05
+0.01
—
17:32
7 Brendan Smith D
-0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:35
9 Ivan Provorov D
-0.65
0.00
+0.02
-0.69
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
26:50
4 Cole Sillinger C
-0.69
0.00
+0.14
-0.72
-0.15
+0.01
+0.03
—
14:49
59 Egor Chinakhov R
-0.72
0.00
+0.15
-0.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:26
16 Brendan Gaunce C
-0.98
0.00
+0.01
-1.04
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
11:44
15 Dante Fabbro D
-1.00
0.00
0.00
-1.08
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
14:22
65 Luca Del Bel Belluz C
-1.05
0.00
+0.09
-1.08
-0.15
-0.01
+0.10
—
9:09
Carolina Hurricanes
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
37 Andrei Svechnikov R
+2.44
+1.40
+0.21
+0.72
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
18:15
24 Seth Jarvis C
+2.04
+0.75
+0.31
+0.98
0.00
-0.02
+0.02
—
17:42
19 K'Andre Miller D
+1.87
+0.70
+0.02
+0.97
+0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
25:04
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D
+1.83
+0.55
+0.27
+0.95
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
21:01
32 Brandon Bussi G
+1.67
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.67
60:00
50 Eric Robinson L
+1.66
+0.75
+0.26
+0.63
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
11:28
26 Sean Walker D
+1.60
+0.55
+0.12
+0.67
0.00
0.00
+0.26
—
22:20
11 Jordan Staal C
+1.56
+0.75
+0.61
+0.13
0.00
+0.08
-0.02
—
15:47
71 Taylor Hall L
+1.51
+0.70
+0.04
+0.91
-0.15
+0.01
0.00
—
13:20
20 Sebastian Aho C
+1.29
0.00
+0.22
+0.99
0.00
+0.04
+0.05
—
19:10
48 Jordan Martinook L
+1.15
+0.75
+0.41
+0.13
-0.15
+0.01
0.00
—
13:04
22 Logan Stankoven C
+1.13
0.00
+0.06
+1.05
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
14:28
5 Jalen Chatfield D
+0.92
0.00
+0.08
+0.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:53
28 William Carrier L
+0.73
0.00
+0.10
+0.56
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
11:53
64 Joel Nystrom D
+0.56
+0.55
+0.02
-0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
11:38
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L
-0.07
0.00
+0.29
-0.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:19
21 Alexander Nikishin D
-0.08
0.00
+0.09
-0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
16:07
53 Jackson Blake R
-0.28
0.00
+0.03
-0.46
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
18:20
77 Mark Jankowski L
-0.37
0.00
+0.06
-0.62
+0.15
-0.02
+0.05
—
12:16
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.