Buffalo SabresBUF 4–3 Final/OT Edmonton OilersEDM

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Final/OT	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	2	0	1	4	28
Edmonton OilersEDM	0	0	3	0	3	30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:01	BUF	Josh Doan (9)PP Rasmus Dahlin (19), Tage Thompson (11) · tip-in xG 0.12	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
11:03	BUF	Tage Thompson (14) Unassisted · snap xG 0.37	2–0 ▶
11:59	BUF	Josh Doan (10)PP Tage Thompson (12), Rasmus Dahlin (20) · between-legs xG 0.17	3–0 ▶
3rd Period
0:10	EDM	Connor McDavid (15) Mattias Ekholm (13) · wrist xG 0.12	3–1 ▶
1:56	EDM	Vasily Podkolzin (6) Leon Draisaitl (21), Ty Emberson (6) · wrist xG 0.07	3–2 ▶
19:58	EDM	Connor McDavid (16) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16), Evan Bouchard (23) · snap xG 0.15	3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:33	BUF	Alex Tuch (11) Ryan McLeod (10), Rasmus Dahlin (21) · wrist xG 0.18	4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 52%Deserve to win48% EDM

BUF		EDM
2.99	Expected goals	2.88
4	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.66	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.78
53	Shot attempts	58
36	Unblocked attempts	44
28	Shots on goal	30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:01	BUF	Goalie change	Goalie change · Lyon in for Ellis 19:01 of the 1st; Ellis had allowed 0 goals on 6 shots (0.53 xG)
2nd Period
4:22	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 62–38% EDM had led since 11:05 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
12:00	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.27–0.26 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:00 to 12:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
3:50	EDM	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.24–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 15:20 of the 2nd to 5:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
18:47	EDM	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 3–2 With 1:13 left; EDM scored at 19:58 of the 3rd (3–3)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	+2	5	0.37	0	1	22:37
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	-1	2	0.10	0	1	22:37
72	Tage Thompson	1	2	3	+1	5	0.72	0	0	19:11
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.20	0	2	16:50
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	0	16:10
91	Josh Doan	2	0	2	-2	9	0.63	1	0	15:07
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	0	0	15:07
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	11:35
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	4	0	11:23
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	09:40
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	1	07:45
Defense
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	2	26:09
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	3	3	0	10	0.27	0	0	22:58
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	0	22:09
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	3	21:14
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	1	17:54
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	1	06:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	6	0	6	1.000	0.53	+0.53
Alex Lyon	24	3	21	.875	2.35	-0.65

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	2	0	2	+1	9	0.47	0	1	25:51
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	1	1	+1	13	0.69	0	0	24:19
18	Zach Hyman	0	0	0	+2	3	0.27	0	0	23:24
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0	1	1	+2	4	0.18	0	1	21:29
22	Matt Savoie	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	1	17:27
92	Vasily Podkolzin	1	0	1	+2	3	0.38	3	0	15:08
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	2	1	12:32
13	Mattias Janmark	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	10:07
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	1	09:00
20	Curtis Lazar	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	4	0	08:17
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	06:57
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	1	1	0	7	0.10	1	0	28:34
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	1	1	0	7	0.35	2	1	22:40
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	+1	3	0.08	0	0	19:28
75	Alec Regula	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	14:46
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	3	14:35
49	Ty Emberson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	1	3	13:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	28	4	24	.857	2.99	-1.01

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.90	+2.00	+0.47	+0.23	+0.15	+0.01	+0.04	—	19:11
91 Josh Doan R	+1.85	+1.50	+0.41	-0.18	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:07
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.71	+1.80	+0.18	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	22:58
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.24	+0.75	+0.24	+0.35	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	22:37
92 Colten Ellis G	+0.68	0.00	—	—	+0.15	—	—	+0.53	19:01
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.26	+0.15	-0.02	+0.02	—	16:10
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.37	0.00	+0.03	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	21:14
12 Jordan Greenway L	+0.28	0.00	+0.05	+0.22	0.00	-0.02	+0.02	—	9:40
25 Owen Power D	+0.23	0.00	+0.08	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:54
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.22	+0.70	+0.07	-0.54	0.00	-0.06	+0.05	—	22:37
44 Josh Dunne C	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.20	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	7:45
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.11	0.00	+0.11	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:23
6 Zach Benson L	+0.02	0.00	+0.13	-0.18	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	16:50
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	0.00	0.00	+0.02	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	26:09
78 Jacob Bryson D	-0.10	0.00	+0.01	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	6:08
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:35
63 Isak Rosen R	-0.34	0.00	+0.04	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	9:05
21 Conor Timmins D	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.56	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	22:09
34 Alex Lyon G	-0.65	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.65	41:32
22 Jack Quinn R	-0.68	0.00	+0.11	-0.63	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	15:07

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+2.34	+0.70	+0.45	+0.99	+0.15	+0.08	-0.02	—	24:19
97 Connor McDavid C	+2.33	+1.50	+0.31	+0.52	0.00	-0.05	+0.05	—	25:51
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.75	+0.75	+0.25	+0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:08
49 Ty Emberson D	+1.32	+0.55	0.00	+0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	13:22
14 Mattias Ekholm D	+1.19	+0.70	+0.23	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:40
2 Evan Bouchard D	+0.97	+0.55	+0.07	+0.24	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	28:34
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	+0.85	+0.70	+0.12	+0.18	-0.15	-0.01	+0.01	—	21:29
18 Zach Hyman L	+0.30	0.00	+0.17	+0.28	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	23:24
22 Matt Savoie C	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.07	—	17:27
27 Brett Kulak D	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	14:35
13 Mattias Janmark C	+0.02	0.00	+0.05	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	10:07
25 Darnell Nurse D	-0.23	0.00	+0.05	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	19:28
20 Curtis Lazar C	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.33	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	8:17
10 Trent Frederic C	-0.34	0.00	+0.05	-0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:57
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	-0.37	0.00	+0.06	-0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:00
75 Alec Regula D	-0.39	0.00	0.00	-0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:46
86 David Tomasek R	-0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.33	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	5:41
19 Adam Henrique C	-0.49	0.00	+0.07	-0.51	-0.15	+0.05	+0.05	—	12:32
74 Stuart Skinner G	-1.01	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.01	59:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.