Colorado AvalancheCOL 3–4 Final/SO Nashville PredatorsNSH

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL	2	0	1	0	0	3	42
Nashville PredatorsNSH	2	0	1	0	1	4	31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:12	COL	Brock Nelson (11) Josh Manson (5), Brent Burns (11) · backhand xG 0.12	1–0 ▶
4:05	NSH	Jonathan Marchessault (6)PP Ryan O'Reilly (13), Filip Forsberg (10) · snap xG 0.22	1–1 ▶
5:30	NSH	Reid Schaefer (2) Fedor Svechkov (4) · wrist xG 0.19	1–2 ▶
10:21	COL	Artturi Lehkonen (11) Martin Necas (26), Nathan MacKinnon (26) · wrist xG 0.16	2–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
12:58	NSH	Brady Skjei (1) Adam Wilsby (4), Luke Evangelista (16) · wrist xG 0.02	2–3 ▶
19:52	COL	Cale Makar (10)PP Martin Necas (27), Nathan MacKinnon (27) · snap xG 0.04	3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly vs Scott Wedgewood	Goal
	COL	Martin Necas vs Juuse Saros	Missed
	NSH	Filip Forsberg vs Scott Wedgewood	Missed
	COL	Valeri Nichushkin vs Juuse Saros	Saved
	NSH	Steven Stamkos vs Scott Wedgewood	Missed
	COL	Gabriel Landeskog vs Juuse Saros	Missed

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 54%Deserve to win46% NSH

COL		NSH
3.70	Expected goals	3.45
3	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.31	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.38
79	Shot attempts	50
58	Unblocked attempts	42
42	Shots on goal	31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:03	COL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · COL takes the lead, 61–39% NSH had led since 5:30 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
16:00	NSH	No shift	No shift · Schaefer, 11:28 on the bench No shift after 5:53 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (8:58) before that
16:00	NSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.34–0.24 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:00 to 16:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	0	2	2	0	15	0.67	0	0	28:22
88	Martin Necas	0	2	2	0	6	0.16	1	0	25:36
62	Artturi Lehkonen	1	0	1	0	4	0.43	1	0	22:10
11	Brock Nelson	1	0	1	0	4	0.21	0	0	21:20
92	Gabriel Landeskog	0	0	0	0	6	0.40	3	0	19:04
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	0	18:42
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	0	1	13:01
18	Jack Drury	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	0	0	12:29
79	Ross Colton	0	0	0	0	3	0.03	1	0	12:15
17	Parker Kelly	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	2	1	10:29
22	Joel Kiviranta	0	0	0	0	2	0.24	0	0	09:21
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	05:08
Defense
8	Cale Makar	1	0	1	0	11	0.34	0	2	30:19
7	Devon Toews	0	0	0	0	7	0.40	0	1	24:02
84	Brent Burns	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	0	16:00
70	Sam Malinski	0	0	0	-1	5	0.01	0	1	15:47
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	1	15:46
42	Josh Manson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	0	14:45

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Scott Wedgewood	31	3	28	.903	3.45	+0.45

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	1	1	-1	3	0.04	0	0	22:16
9	Filip Forsberg	0	1	1	-2	2	0.05	0	1	21:34
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-1	3	0.13	0	1	20:15
77	Luke Evangelista	0	1	1	0	4	0.17	0	1	18:38
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	+1	9	0.89	2	0	18:29
81	Jonathan Marchessault	1	0	1	-1	2	0.31	0	1	17:42
47	Michael McCarron	0	0	0	+1	5	0.73	3	1	15:57
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	1	1	+1	4	0.09	0	0	15:34
58	Michael Bunting	0	0	0	+1	2	0.09	1	3	15:26
49	Reid Schaefer	1	0	1	+1	1	0.19	2	2	08:58
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	08:54
Defense
76	Brady Skjei	1	0	1	0	5	0.13	0	1	24:46
59	Roman Josi	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	0	2	20:48
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	1	18:35
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	18:12
2	Adam Wilsby	0	1	1	0	3	0.36	0	3	16:17
24	Spencer Stastney	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	12:40
3	Nick Blankenburg	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	12:37

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	42	3	39	.929	3.70	+0.70

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
8 Cale Makar D	+1.48	+0.75	+0.22	+0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.14	—	30:19
11 Brock Nelson C	+1.31	+0.75	+0.14	+0.27	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	21:20
84 Brent Burns D	+1.10	+0.55	+0.04	+0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:00
42 Josh Manson D	+1.08	+0.70	0.00	+0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:45
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+0.91	+1.10	+0.44	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	28:22
92 Gabriel Landeskog L	+0.80	0.00	+0.26	+0.37	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	19:04
20 Ross Colton C	+0.60	0.00	+0.02	+0.61	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	12:15
88 Martin Necas C	+0.60	+1.40	+0.10	-0.92	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	25:36
94 Joel Kiviranta L	+0.56	0.00	+0.16	+0.57	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	9:21
41 Scott Wedgewood G	+0.45	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.45	62:20
7 Devon Toews D	+0.44	0.00	+0.26	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:02
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.33	0.00	+0.16	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	13:01
17 Parker Kelly C	+0.25	0.00	+0.10	+0.13	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	10:29
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+0.23	+0.75	+0.28	-0.81	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	22:10
18 Jack Drury C	+0.12	0.00	+0.10	-0.01	0.00	+0.05	-0.02	—	12:29
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+0.11	0.00	+0.10	+0.07	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	18:42
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+0.01	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	5:08
70 Sam Malinski D	-0.71	0.00	+0.01	-0.75	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:47
49 Samuel Girard D	-0.84	0.00	+0.02	-0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	15:46

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C	+2.23	0.00	+0.58	+1.65	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	18:29
77 Luke Evangelista R	+2.16	+0.55	+0.11	+1.43	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	18:38
83 Adam Wilsby D	+1.97	+0.70	+0.23	+0.90	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	16:17
76 Brady Skjei D	+1.63	+0.75	+0.08	+0.77	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	24:46
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+1.22	+0.70	+0.02	+0.50	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	22:16
40 Fedor Svechkov C	+1.09	+0.70	+0.06	+0.49	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	15:34
49 Reid Schaefer L	+0.76	+0.75	+0.13	-0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	8:58
47 Michael McCarron C	+0.76	0.00	+0.48	+0.23	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:57
74 Juuse Saros G	+0.70	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.70	64:52
58 Michael Bunting L	+0.33	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	+0.15	-0.01	+0.13	—	15:26
24 Spencer Stastney D	+0.28	0.00	+0.02	+0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:40
37 Nick Blankenburg D	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:37
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	-0.09	+0.75	+0.20	-1.05	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:42
71 Matthew Wood R	-0.20	0.00	+0.03	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	8:54
48 Nick Perbix D	-0.34	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:12
59 Roman Josi D	-0.48	0.00	+0.09	-0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:48
9 Filip Forsberg L	-0.71	+0.55	+0.03	-1.35	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	21:34
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.95	0.00	+0.02	-0.82	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	18:35
56 Erik Haula L	-1.46	0.00	+0.09	-1.43	-0.15	-0.03	+0.07	—	20:15

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.