| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 29 | |
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:54 | Alexandre Texier (1) Unassisted · snap xG 0.11 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 4:37 | Brendan Gallagher (2) Lane Hutson (18), Juraj Slafkovský (8) · wrist xG 0.10 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 10:18 | Cole Caufield (17)PP Nick Suzuki (26), Lane Hutson (19) · wrist xG 0.07 | 3–0 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 0:44 | Bryan Rust (9) Sidney Crosby (14), Tommy Novak (10) · wrist xG 0.16 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 0:59 | Oliver Kapanen (10) Juraj Slafkovský (9), Ivan Demidov (18) · wrist xG 0.12 | 4–1 ▶ | |
| 15:07 | Erik Karlsson (2)PP Kris Letang (12), Bryan Rust (14) · snap xG 0.05 | 4–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| MTL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.74 | Expected goals | 3.31 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.51 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.27 |
| 60 | Shot attempts | 81 |
| 40 | Unblocked attempts | 54 |
| 29 | Shots on goal | 38 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:50 | PIT | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Jarry, down 4–1
With 5:10 left; PIT scored at 15:07 of the 3rd (4–2) |
| 19:14 | PIT | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · PIT takes the lead, 60–40%
MTL had led since 2:54 of the 1st, by as much as 67% |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 9 | 0.55 | 0 | 2 | 23:02 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.43 | 0 | 2 | 19:03 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 0.32 | 1 | 1 | 18:12 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 2 | 3 | 16:29 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.26 | 2 | 0 | 16:26 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 09:57 |
| 62 | Owen Beck | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.23 | 2 | 1 | 09:08 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 5 | 25:47 |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 4 | 22:15 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 21:40 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 4 | 21:38 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | 4 | 0 | 13:20 |
| 42 | Adam Engstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | 38 | 2 | 36 | .947 | 3.31 | +1.31 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 17 | Bryan Rust | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 |
| 87 | Sidney Crosby | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0.81 | 2 | 0 | 24:29 |
| 81 | Ben Kindel | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 | 21:24 |
| 39 | Anthony Mantha | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 0.29 | 0 | 2 | 18:36 |
| 18 | Tommy Novak | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 1 | 15:24 |
| 41 | Ville Koivunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 |
| 19 | Connor Dewar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 13:20 |
| 52 | Noel Acciari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 |
| 13 | Kevin Hayes | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 11:53 |
| 2 | Rutger McGroarty | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 | 10:24 |
| 16 | Justin Brazeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.10 | 3 | 0 | 10:11 |
| 58 | Danton Heinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 10:10 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 65 | Erik Karlsson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0.24 | 1 | 2 | 27:22 |
| 58 | Kris Letang | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 21:59 |
| 29 | Parker Wotherspoon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 2 | 3 | 18:59 |
| 6 | Ryan Shea | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 16:25 |
| 75 | Connor Clifton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 7 | 1 | 13:06 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | 29 | 4 | 25 | .862 | 2.74 | -1.26 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Lane Hutson D | +3.19 | +1.25 | +0.04 | +1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 22:15 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +2.03 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:06 |
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +1.69 | +0.70 | +0.36 | +0.65 | 0.00 | -0.14 | +0.12 | — | 23:02 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | +1.65 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.10 | — | 19:03 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | +1.61 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 21:38 |
| 85 Alexandre Texier L | +1.42 | +0.75 | +0.08 | +0.61 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:32 |
| 32 Jacob Fowler G | +1.31 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.31 | 59:51 |
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +1.26 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:12 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +0.97 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.57 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:43 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | +0.90 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.56 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.13 | — | 16:29 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | +0.86 | +0.75 | +0.14 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 9:57 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | +0.71 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 16:26 |
| 62 Owen Beck C | +0.62 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 9:08 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | +0.51 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | — | 25:47 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 13:20 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 12:20 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.24 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 21:40 |
| 42 Adam Engstrom D | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:30 |
| 49 Jared Davidson C | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.13 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 5:44 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 Sidney Crosby C | +1.36 | +0.70 | +0.52 | -0.20 | +0.15 | +0.18 | 0.00 | — | 24:29 |
| 17 Bryan Rust R | +0.94 | +1.30 | +0.35 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 25:35 |
| 65 Erik Karlsson D | +0.78 | +0.75 | +0.15 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 27:22 |
| 27 Ryan Graves D | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 12:59 |
| 2 Rutger McGroarty R | +0.39 | 0.00 | +0.22 | -0.17 | +0.30 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 10:24 |
| 75 Connor Clifton D | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 13:06 |
| 18 Tommy Novak C | +0.28 | +0.55 | +0.16 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:24 |
| 81 Ben Kindel C | +0.18 | 0.00 | +0.32 | -0.37 | +0.15 | -0.02 | +0.10 | — | 21:24 |
| 55 Noel Acciari C | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | — | 13:11 |
| 16 Justin Brazeau R | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:11 |
| 39 Anthony Mantha R | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.19 | -0.61 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.08 | — | 18:36 |
| 19 Connor Dewar C | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 13:20 |
| 43 Danton Heinen L | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.35 | -0.15 | -0.02 | +0.07 | — | 10:10 |
| 41 Ville Koivunen R | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.35 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:25 |
| 28 Parker Wotherspoon D | -0.54 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 18:59 |
| 13 Kevin Hayes R | -0.66 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.74 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.05 | — | 11:53 |
| 58 Kris Letang D | -0.91 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -1.49 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 21:59 |
| 5 Ryan Shea D | -1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.36 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 16:25 |
| 35 Tristan Jarry G | -1.26 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.26 | 56:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.