hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 2–7 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 020 2 26
Nashville PredatorsNSH 241 7 32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:22 NSH Steven Stamkos (9) Matthew Wood (5), Fedor Svechkov (5) · bat xG 0.53 0–1 ▶
11:19 NSH Steven Stamkos (10) Roman Josi (9), Nick Perbix (3) · wrist xG 0.17 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
4:17 STL Hugh McGing (1) Robby Fabbri (1), Philip Broberg (9) · snap xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
8:38 NSH Ryan O'Reilly (10) Luke Evangelista (17) · wrist xG 0.07 1–3 ▶
11:43 NSH Filip Forsberg (11) Luke Evangelista (18), Brady Skjei (8) · wrist xG 0.19 1–4 ▶
12:06 NSH Steven Stamkos (11) Nick Blankenburg (9), Fedor Svechkov (6) · wrist xG 0.12 1–5 ▶
13:56 STL Robert Thomas (7) Philip Broberg (10), Jake Neighbours (5) · wrist xG 0.04 2–5 ▶
15:33 NSH Steven Stamkos (12) Matthew Wood (6), Roman Josi (10) · backhand xG 0.06 2–6 ▶
3rd Period
7:36 NSH Michael Bunting (8)PP Luke Evangelista (19), Nick Blankenburg (10) · tip-in xG 0.13 2–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 19%Deserve to win81% NSH
STLNSH
1.95Expected goals3.93
2Goals (no shootout)7
1.30Expected goals, 5 on 52.73
48Shot attempts56
32Unblocked attempts44
26Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:50 NSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.48–0.34
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:00 to 17:00 of the 1st; goals 2–0
2nd Period
12:06 STL Goalie Goalie · Binnington −2.5 goals saved
5 goals on 2.48 xG, 20 shots on goal
20:00 STL Goalie change Goalie change · Hofer in for Binnington
The start of the 3rd; Binnington had allowed 6 goals on 25 shots (2.92 xG)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Steven Stamkos: backhand, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:28) Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:16) Michael McCarron: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:31) Filip Forsberg: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:49) Reid Schaefer: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:01) Dylan Holloway: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 3:40) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 3:57) Robert Thomas: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:44) Pius Suter: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:42) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:19) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 8:44) Cam Fowler: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:57) Filip Forsberg: slap, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 9:11) Roman Josi: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:17) Filip Forsberg: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:28) Michael McCarron: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:34) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:45) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:42) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:33) Colton Parayko: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:39) Cam Fowler: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:43) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:11) Michael McCarron: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:12) Michael McCarron: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:14) Filip Forsberg: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:16) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:31) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:49) Steven Stamkos: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:50) Spencer Stastney: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:56) Dylan Holloway: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:32) Robert Thomas: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:28) Roman Josi: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:53) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 0:55) Steven Stamkos: slap, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:38) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:44) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:25) Philip Broberg: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:41) Brady Skjei: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:00) Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:38) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:56) Jake Neighbours: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:20) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:26) Luke Evangelista: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:27) Philip Broberg: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:44) Roman Josi: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:47) Fedor Svechkov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:01) Matthew Wood: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:32) Justin Faulk: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:58) Roman Josi: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:51) Philip Broberg: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:55) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:28) Filip Forsberg: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:32) Michael Bunting: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:10) Philip Broberg: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:06) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:09) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:27) Pius Suter: backhand, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:28) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:47) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:50) Erik Haula: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:41) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:47) Steven Stamkos: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:56) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:31) Erik Haula: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 15:41) Robert Thomas: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:16) Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:46) Logan Mailloux: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:54) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, bat, 6 ft, xG 0.53 (P1 8:22) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:19) Hugh McGing: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:17) Ryan O'Reilly: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:38) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 11:43) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:06) Robert Thomas: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:56) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:33) Michael Bunting: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 7:36)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 101 -1 40.26 0019:02
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -1 60.26 0018:38
81 Dylan Holloway 000 0 40.40 3216:58
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 -1 10.07 0015:28
22 Pius Suter 000 -3 20.10 1015:26
63 Jake Neighbours 011 0 30.29 4015:25
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 00.00 4014:37
21 Robby Fabbri 011 0 20.01 3114:28
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 -1 20.00 2013:44
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -2 20.01 1011:30
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 022 0 70.16 1025:26
55 Colton Parayko 000 -2 40.00 1322:00
17 Cam Fowler 000 -3 30.05 1220:57
72 Justin Faulk 000 -1 20.06 1018:26
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 10.01 2116:06
23 Logan Mailloux 000 -1 10.04 2015:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 25619 .760 2.92 -3.08
Joel Hofer 716 .857 1.01 +0.01

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
77 Luke Evangelista 033 +2 50.30 0018:32
9 Filip Forsberg 101 +2 90.52 1018:25
56 Erik Haula 000 -1 20.47 0017:08
90 Ryan O'Reilly 101 +2 10.07 0116:52
9 Fedor Svechkov 022 +4 20.19 0116:46
91 Steven Stamkos 404 +4 101.40 0016:42
71 Matthew Wood 022 +4 20.06 1015:49
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 -2 10.00 0015:03
47 Michael McCarron 000 -1 40.28 5114:41
58 Michael Bunting 101 -1 30.16 0114:27
49 Reid Schaefer 000 -1 30.13 5313:28
Defense
59 Roman Josi 022 +3 60.11 0020:54
76 Brady Skjei 011 +2 20.02 1320:14
3 Nick Blankenburg 022 +1 20.03 0118:05
48 Nick Perbix 011 +2 00.00 0016:18
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 00.00 1115:49
24 Spencer Stastney 000 0 30.18 0214:08
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 10.00 0111:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 26224 .923 1.95 -0.05

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Philip Broberg D +0.97 +1.25 +0.11 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 25:26
18 Robert Thomas C +0.81 +0.75 +0.17 -0.21 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 19:02
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.65 +0.55 +0.19 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:25
9 Robby Fabbri C +0.29 +0.70 +0.01 -0.17 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 14:28
81 Dylan Holloway L +0.21 0.00 +0.26 -0.14 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 16:58
30 Joel Hofer G +0.01 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.01 20:00
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.07 0.00 +0.17 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:38
56 Hugh McGing L -0.18 +0.75 +0.10 -1.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:48
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 14:37
71 Mathieu Joseph R -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:44
55 Colton Parayko D -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:00
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.50 0.00 +0.05 -0.50 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:28
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.68 0.00 +0.01 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:06
72 Justin Faulk D -0.73 0.00 +0.04 -0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:26
23 Logan Mailloux D -0.73 0.00 +0.02 -0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:07
65 Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C -1.01 0.00 +0.03 -1.24 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 9:31
22 Pius Suter C -1.02 0.00 +0.07 -0.92 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 15:26
17 Cam Fowler D -1.16 0.00 +0.04 -1.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 20:57
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -1.26 0.00 +0.01 -1.29 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:30
50 Jordan Binnington G -2.93 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -3.08 40:00

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C +6.16 +3.00 +0.91 +2.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 16:42
71 Matthew Wood R +3.64 +1.40 +0.04 +2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:49
40 Fedor Svechkov C +3.52 +1.10 +0.13 +2.28 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 16:46
77 Luke Evangelista R +3.00 +2.10 +0.20 +0.39 +0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 18:32
59 Roman Josi D +2.90 +1.25 +0.07 +1.60 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:54
37 Nick Blankenburg D +1.97 +1.25 +0.02 +0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:05
9 Filip Forsberg L +1.51 +0.75 +0.34 +0.60 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:25
76 Brady Skjei D +1.28 +0.55 +0.02 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:14
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.21 +0.75 +0.05 +0.19 +0.15 +0.02 +0.05 — 16:52
48 Nick Perbix D +1.10 +0.55 0.00 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:18
58 Michael Bunting L +0.69 +0.75 +0.10 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 14:27
24 Spencer Stastney D +0.53 0.00 +0.12 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 14:08
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:49
47 Michael McCarron C +0.23 0.00 +0.18 +0.04 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 14:41
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.15 0.00 +0.08 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.17 — 13:28
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 11:53
74 Juuse Saros G -0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.05 58:46
56 Erik Haula L -0.13 0.00 +0.30 -0.42 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:08
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.