hockeystats.io

Edmonton OilersEDM 6–3 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 123 6 37
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 111 3 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:25 EDM Connor McDavid (17) Evan Bouchard (24) · wrist xG 0.18 1–0 ▶
16:03 TOR Easton Cowan (4) Scott Laughton (1), Steven Lorentz (6) · backhand xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:54 TOR Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5) Matthew Knies (22), Max Domi (9) · wrist xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
10:29 EDM Connor McDavid (18) Unassisted · xG 0.51 2–2 ▶
19:29 EDM Darnell Nurse (6) Leon Draisaitl (24), Connor McDavid (33) · snap xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:21 EDM Vasily Podkolzin (7) Leon Draisaitl (25), Alec Regula (1) · deflected xG 0.13 4–2 ▶
1:55 EDM Vasily Podkolzin (8) Leon Draisaitl (26), Matt Savoie (5) · tip-in xG 0.12 5–2 ▶
9:28 EDM Zach Hyman (6) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18) · backhand xG 0.10 6–2 ▶
19:12 TOR Steven Lorentz (3) Jake McCabe (10), Troy Stecher (4) · slap xG 0.13 6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 62%Deserve to win38% TOR
EDMTOR
3.82Expected goals3.10
6Goals (no shootout)3
3.01Expected goals, 5 on 52.18
69Shot attempts57
53Unblocked attempts46
37Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
9:28 TOR Goalie Goalie · Hildeby −2.5 goals saved
6 goals on 3.48 xG, 32 shots on goal
9:28 TOR Goalie change Goalie change · Akhtyamov in for Hildeby
9:28 of the 3rd; Hildeby had allowed 6 goals on 32 shots (3.48 xG)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
John Tavares: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:28) Trent Frederic: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 2:06) Troy Stecher: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:23) Evan Bouchard: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:34) David Tomasek: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:53) Zach Hyman: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 4:22) Calle Jarnkrok: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:52) Matthew Knies: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:13) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:51) Ty Emberson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:58) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:08) Trent Frederic: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:14) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:12) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:16) David Tomasek: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 9:10) Curtis Lazar: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:11) David Tomasek: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:18) David Tomasek: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:35) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:21) Darnell Nurse: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:04) Matthew Knies: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:22) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:59) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:51) Alec Regula: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:32) Nick Robertson: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:06) Scott Laughton: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:02) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:54) John Tavares: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:12) Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 17:21) Auston Matthews: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:41) Zach Hyman: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:09) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:05) William Nylander: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:16) Adam Henrique: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:51) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:23) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:54) Auston Matthews: wrist, 157 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:29) Auston Matthews: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:38) Max Domi: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:53) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:26) Connor McDavid: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:55) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:57) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:07) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:37) Evan Bouchard: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:49) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:13) Mattias Janmark: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:31) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:34) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:15) Ty Emberson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:03) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:42) Easton Cowan: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:01) Matt Savoie: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:18) Auston Matthews: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:04) John Tavares: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:25) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:11) Matthew Knies: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.46 (P2 15:14) Max Domi: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:44) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:45) Nicolas Roy: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:53) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:35) Matthew Knies: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:48) Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:39) William Nylander: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:54) Alec Regula: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:11) Scott Laughton: slap, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:40) Nick Robertson: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:43) Nick Robertson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:05) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:58) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:21) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:31) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:01) Henry Thrun: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:24) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:23) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:58) Mattias Janmark: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:06) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:11) Ty Emberson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:04) David Tomasek: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:42) Simon Benoit: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:08) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:23) Matt Savoie: backhand, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:50) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:39) Nick Robertson: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:12) Nick Robertson: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:13) Nick Robertson: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:15) Troy Stecher: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:19) Bobby McMann: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:29) Connor McDavid: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:39) Curtis Lazar: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:16) Connor McDavid: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:25) Easton Cowan: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:03) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:54) Connor McDavid: GOAL, shot, 7 ft, xG 0.51 (P2 10:29) Darnell Nurse: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 19:29) Vasily Podkolzin: GOAL, deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:21) Vasily Podkolzin: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 1:55) Zach Hyman: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:28) Steven Lorentz: GOAL, slap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 19:12)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Leon Draisaitl 033 +3 90.37 0021:08
97 Connor McDavid 213 +3 70.84 0019:42
18 Zach Hyman 101 +3 70.37 0018:04
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 011 +2 40.22 0017:18
19 Adam Henrique 000 -1 20.07 0015:11
22 Matt Savoie 011 +2 30.04 0015:10
13 Mattias Janmark 000 -1 20.05 0014:54
92 Vasily Podkolzin 202 +2 50.58 5014:01
10 Trent Frederic 000 -1 20.34 6013:39
26 Andrew Mangiapane 000 -1 10.01 0013:02
20 Curtis Lazar 000 -1 20.04 1010:48
Defense
25 Darnell Nurse 101 +3 40.22 1121:50
2 Evan Bouchard 011 +2 30.08 0121:34
75 Alec Regula 011 +3 20.16 0021:15
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 0 10.03 1118:32
49 Ty Emberson 000 -1 40.04 3517:12
24 Spencer Stastney 000 -1 50.06 0116:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Tristan Jarry 28325 .893 3.10 +0.10

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Matthew Knies 011 -1 50.85 4118:23
34 Auston Matthews 000 0 50.26 0017:33
91 John Tavares 000 -3 30.29 0016:55
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 20.02 2015:44
11 Max Domi 011 -1 20.24 0015:30
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -2 20.15 2014:47
21 Scott Laughton 011 +2 20.02 2114:37
88 William Nylander 000 -3 20.06 0013:46
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 20.20 0013:29
14 Nick Robertson 000 -2 60.50 2012:59
53 Easton Cowan 101 +1 30.05 2112:56
18 Steven Lorentz 112 +2 60.28 2011:17
Defense
28 Troy Stecher 011 +1 30.02 0222:08
22 Jake McCabe 011 0 00.00 4521:37
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -3 60.05 0121:25
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 101 -3 60.09 1119:32
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 10.00 4218:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dennis Hildeby 32627 .844 3.48 -2.52
Artur Akhtyamov 505 1.000 0.34 +0.34

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
97 Connor McDavid C +3.28 +2.05 +0.55 +0.67 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:42
29 Leon Draisaitl C +3.12 +2.10 +0.24 +0.76 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 21:08
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +2.71 +1.50 +0.38 +0.68 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:01
2 Evan Bouchard D +2.09 +0.70 +0.05 +1.32 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:34
18 Zach Hyman L +1.88 +0.75 +0.24 +0.91 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:04
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C +1.72 +0.70 +0.15 +0.88 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:18
25 Darnell Nurse D +1.67 +0.75 +0.14 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:50
22 Matt Savoie C +1.57 +0.55 +0.03 +0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:10
75 Alec Regula D +1.46 +0.55 +0.10 +0.84 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 21:15
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.85 0.00 +0.02 +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:32
86 David Tomasek R +0.21 0.00 +0.20 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:18
20 Curtis Lazar C +0.17 0.00 +0.02 +0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:48
35 Tristan Jarry G +0.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.10 60:00
88 Andrew Mangiapane L +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:02
10 Trent Frederic C +0.02 0.00 +0.22 -0.24 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 13:39
13 Mattias Janmark C -0.22 0.00 +0.03 -0.22 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:54
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.34 0.00 +0.04 -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 16:22
49 Ty Emberson D -0.35 0.00 +0.02 -0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 17:12
19 Adam Henrique C -0.43 0.00 +0.05 -0.47 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:11

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Steven Lorentz C +1.70 +1.30 +0.18 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:17
24 Scott Laughton C +1.33 +0.70 +0.01 +0.57 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 14:37
53 Easton Cowan R +1.13 +0.75 +0.03 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:56
23 Matthew Knies L +0.83 +0.70 +0.55 -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 18:23
28 Troy Stecher D +0.82 +0.55 +0.02 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:08
22 Jake McCabe D +0.61 +0.70 0.00 -0.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.19 — 21:37
70 Artur Akhtyamov G +0.34 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.34 10:32
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.31 0.00 +0.13 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:29
34 Auston Matthews C +0.24 0.00 +0.17 +0.09 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 17:33
89 Nick Robertson L -0.07 0.00 +0.33 -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:59
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.17 +0.75 +0.06 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:32
3 Henry Thrun D -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:49
11 Max Domi C -0.27 +0.55 +0.16 -0.78 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:30
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.49 0.00 +0.03 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:25
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.59 0.00 +0.10 -0.64 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:47
2 Simon Benoit D -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:33
74 Bobby McMann C -0.64 0.00 +0.01 -0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:44
91 John Tavares C -1.23 0.00 +0.19 -1.28 -0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 16:55
88 William Nylander R -1.29 0.00 +0.04 -1.29 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:46
35 Dennis Hildeby G -2.52 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.52 49:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.