| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 26 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 30 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:02 | Charlie Coyle (5) Zach Werenski (24), Cole Sillinger (11) · wrist xG 0.10 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 0:41 | Pavel Dorofeyev (13)PP Mitch Marner (24), Jack Eichel (29) · snap xG 0.12 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:49 | Egor Chinakhov (3) Dante Fabbro (4), Kent Johnson (5) · wrist xG 0.09 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 5:52 | Ben Hutton (4) Mitch Marner (25), Kaedan Korczak (3) · snap xG 0.06 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 13:13 | Brayden McNabb (1) Mitch Marner (26), Shea Theodore (16) · snap xG 0.06 | 3–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| VGK | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Expected goals | 2.02 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.66 |
| 61 | Shot attempts | 59 |
| 40 | Unblocked attempts | 37 |
| 26 | Shots on goal | 30 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:40 | VGK | No shift | No shift · Dorofeyev, 18:22 on the bench
No shift after 18:39 of the 2nd; 12 shifts (11:04) before that |
| 18:52 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 3–2
With 1:08 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 9 | Jack Eichel | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0.06 | 2 | 2 | 20:48 |
| 61 | Mark Stone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 0 | 18:14 |
| 93 | Mitch Marner | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 16:46 |
| 49 | Ivan Barbashev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 |
| 48 | Tomas Hertl | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 |
| 15 | Colton Sissons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 5 | 4 | 14:36 |
| 42 | Braeden Bowman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 |
| 20 | Brandon Saad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 13:39 |
| 29 | Cole Reinhardt | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 |
| 21 | Brett Howden | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 |
| 55 | Keegan Kolesar | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 12:09 |
| 16 | Pavel Dorofeyev | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.58 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 27 | Shea Theodore | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 22:43 |
| 15 | Noah Hanifin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 |
| 3 | Brayden McNabb | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 2 | 20:24 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 4 | 17:45 |
| 6 | Kaedan Korczak | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 3 | 17:30 |
| 17 | Ben Hutton | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | 30 | 2 | 28 | .933 | 2.02 | +0.02 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.37 | 1 | 0 | 18:46 |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.18 | 1 | 3 | 18:42 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.10 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 1 | 17:50 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 17:26 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.33 | 2 | 2 | 16:32 |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 1 | 14:35 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.02 | 2 | 0 | 14:04 |
| 50 | Brendan Gaunce | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 10:44 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 09:55 |
| 59 | Egor Chinakhov | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 09:53 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 25:53 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 23:24 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 20:38 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.05 | 0 | 3 | 20:18 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 |
| 7 | Brendan Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 11:12 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 26 | 3 | 23 | .885 | 1.88 | -1.12 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Mitch Marner R | +2.82 | +2.10 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:46 |
| 17 Ben Hutton D | +1.49 | +0.75 | +0.10 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:39 |
| 16 Pavel Dorofeyev R | +1.45 | +0.75 | +0.38 | +0.17 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:04 |
| 6 Kaedan Korczak D | +1.27 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 17:30 |
| 61 Mark Stone R | +0.42 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:14 |
| 10 Colton Sissons C | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.22 | — | 14:36 |
| 23 Cole Reinhardt L | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 13:18 |
| 27 Shea Theodore D | +0.12 | +0.55 | +0.07 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:43 |
| 48 Tomas Hertl C | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.02 | — | 15:24 |
| 79 Carter Hart G | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.02 | 60:00 |
| 9 Jack Eichel C | -0.03 | +0.55 | +0.04 | -0.70 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.12 | — | 20:48 |
| 2 Zach Whitecloud D | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 17:45 |
| 20 Brandon Saad L | -0.16 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.06 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 13:39 |
| 21 Brett Howden C | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 0.00 | — | 13:10 |
| 15 Noah Hanifin D | -0.29 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:13 |
| 55 Keegan Kolesar R | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:09 |
| 3 Brayden McNabb D | -0.54 | +0.75 | +0.07 | -1.12 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 20:24 |
| 49 Ivan Barbashev L | -0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 15:26 |
| 42 Braeden Bowman R | -0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:13 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +1.81 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:53 |
| 86 Kirill Marchenko R | +1.09 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.54 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:46 |
| 59 Egor Chinakhov R | +1.05 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 9:53 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | +0.96 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:55 |
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | +0.94 | +0.75 | +0.17 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 17:50 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | +0.88 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 20:18 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | +0.75 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 13:54 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | +0.73 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:35 |
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +0.52 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.10 | — | 17:58 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | +0.49 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.13 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.17 | — | 18:42 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:04 |
| 16 Brendan Gaunce C | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 10:44 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 17:26 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 16:32 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 23:24 |
| 21 Isac Lundeström C | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:59 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 20:38 |
| 7 Brendan Smith D | -0.62 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.48 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:12 |
| 73 Jet Greaves G | -1.12 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.12 | 58:52 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.