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Nashville PredatorsNSH 5–2 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Monday, December 15, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 131 5 26
St. Louis BluesSTL 101 2 22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:27 NSH Filip Forsberg (12) Ryan O'Reilly (15), Brady Skjei (9) · wrist xG 0.09 1–0 ▶
10:06 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (4) Hugh McGing (1), Justin Faulk (10) · wrist xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:23 NSH Michael Bunting (9) Nick Perbix (4), Erik Haula (13) · wrap-around xG 0.07 2–1 ▶
5:31 NSH Filip Forsberg (13)PP Steven Stamkos (4), Roman Josi (11) · wrist xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
18:45 NSH Reid Schaefer (3) Roman Josi (12) · wrist xG 0.02 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
8:29 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (5)PP Jake Neighbours (7), Pavel Buchnevich (12) · snap xG 0.24 4–2 ▶
16:09 NSH Filip Forsberg (14)EN Ryan O'Reilly (16) · wrist xG 0.56 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 56%Deserve to win44% STL
NSHSTL
3.08Expected goals2.18
5Goals (no shootout)2
1.57Expected goals, 5 on 51.35
53Shot attempts43
42Unblocked attempts35
26Shots on goal22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:45 STL Goalie Goalie · Hofer −2.1 goals saved
4 goals on 1.94 xG, 19 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:01 STL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hofer, down 4–2
With 3:59 left; NSH scored at 16:09 of the 3rd (5–2)

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Michael McCarron: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:57) Michael McCarron: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:06) Brady Skjei: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:12) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:55) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:03) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:04) Nick Perbix: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:34) Matt Luff: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:28) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:46) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:40) Steven Stamkos: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:53) Roman Josi: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:06) Philip Broberg: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:14) Pius Suter: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:16) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:25) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:05) Brady Skjei: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:46) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:10) Erik Haula: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:17) Erik Haula: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:19) Roman Josi: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:22) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:40) Colton Parayko: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:46) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:57) Michael Bunting: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:07) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:09) Filip Forsberg: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:02) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:13) Michael Bunting: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:33) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:02) Pius Suter: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:29) Roman Josi: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:42) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 5:17) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:46) Cam Fowler: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:06) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:16) Colton Parayko: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:24) Colton Parayko: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:02) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:27) Alexey Toropchenko: backhand, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:47) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:11) Jonathan Marchessault: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:30) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:32) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:32) Hugh McGing: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:51) Erik Haula: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:01) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:12) Pavel Buchnevich: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:39) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:28) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:44) Matthew Wood: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:27) Matthew Wood: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:28) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:35) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:36) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:42) Robert Thomas: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 6:00) Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:02) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:23) Steven Stamkos: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:31) Brady Skjei: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:10) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 8:17) Jake Neighbours: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:59) Matt Luff: tip-in, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:30) Logan Mailloux: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:39) Pius Suter: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:50) Hugh McGing: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:53) Michael Bunting: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:18) Mathieu Joseph: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 16:51) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:31) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:20) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:27) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:06) Michael Bunting: GOAL, wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:23) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:31) Reid Schaefer: GOAL, wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:45) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 8:29) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.56 (P3 16:09)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 022 +2 20.13 0018:45
56 Erik Haula 011 +1 40.23 0117:19
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 +1 50.29 1016:34
9 Filip Forsberg 303 +2 70.95 1016:20
77 Luke Evangelista 000 +2 30.11 0016:03
91 Steven Stamkos 011 -1 40.39 1015:53
58 Michael Bunting 101 +1 50.16 2015:30
71 Matthew Wood 000 -1 30.26 2014:27
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 20.07 1213:41
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 10.03 0012:31
49 Reid Schaefer 101 +1 30.17 2011:51
17 Tyson Jost 000 +1 00.00 1011:44
Defense
59 Roman Josi 022 +2 50.14 1023:41
76 Brady Skjei 011 +2 50.04 0119:44
48 Nick Perbix 011 +1 10.10 0118:25
2 Adam Wilsby 000 +2 00.00 0018:06
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 20.01 0117:23
41 Nicolas Hague 000 -1 10.00 1117:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 22220 .909 2.18 +0.18

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Pius Suter 000 +1 30.21 0017:36
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 202 +1 40.38 3117:07
18 Robert Thomas 000 -2 10.19 1216:24
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 20.04 0115:28
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 60.04 1015:27
89 Pavel Buchnevich 011 -2 30.32 1015:24
63 Jake Neighbours 011 -4 10.02 4014:44
21 Robby Fabbri 000 -2 10.00 1013:41
10 Brayden Schenn 000 -3 20.07 2112:24
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 0 20.36 1010:32
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 -2 20.12 0023:33
72 Justin Faulk 011 -1 10.00 1322:03
55 Colton Parayko 000 -3 30.13 3219:45
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 20.05 0018:02
17 Cam Fowler 000 0 10.01 1017:29
23 Logan Mailloux 000 +1 40.05 1016:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 25421 .840 2.52 -1.48

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Filip Forsberg L +2.80 +2.25 +0.61 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 16:20
59 Roman Josi D +1.50 +1.25 +0.09 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:41
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.42 +1.40 +0.09 -0.13 0.00 +0.04 +0.02 — 18:45
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.27 +0.70 +0.25 +0.18 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:53
58 Michael Bunting L +1.21 +0.75 +0.11 +0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:30
56 Erik Haula L +1.18 +0.55 +0.15 +0.40 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 — 17:19
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.88 +0.75 +0.11 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:51
48 Nick Perbix D +0.73 +0.70 +0.06 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:25
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.65 0.00 +0.02 +0.59 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 12:31
76 Brady Skjei D +0.64 +0.55 +0.03 +0.16 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:44
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +0.50 0.00 +0.19 +0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:34
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.48 0.00 +0.01 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:23
71 Matthew Wood R +0.44 0.00 +0.17 +0.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:27
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:06
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.28 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:18
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.06 0.00 +0.07 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:03
17 Tyson Jost C +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:44
74 Juuse Saros G +0.03 0.00 — — -0.15 — — +0.18 60:00
47 Michael McCarron C -0.16 0.00 +0.04 -0.32 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 — 13:41

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +1.33 +1.50 +0.25 -0.28 -0.15 -0.04 +0.05 — 17:07
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.81 +0.55 +0.21 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:24
71 Mathieu Joseph R +0.76 0.00 +0.23 +0.54 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:32
56 Hugh McGing L +0.75 +0.70 +0.11 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 13:54
72 Justin Faulk D +0.46 +0.55 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:03
6 Philip Broberg D +0.41 0.00 +0.08 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:33
18 Robert Thomas C +0.26 0.00 +0.13 +0.12 0.00 -0.05 +0.06 — 16:24
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.16 +0.70 +0.02 -0.68 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:44
39 Matt Luff R +0.07 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:00
22 Pius Suter C -0.02 0.00 +0.13 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:36
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 15:28
55 Colton Parayko D -0.11 0.00 +0.08 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:45
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.12 0.00 +0.03 -0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:02
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.18 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:27
23 Logan Mailloux D -0.20 0.00 +0.03 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:26
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.43 0.00 +0.04 -0.50 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 12:24
9 Robby Fabbri C -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:41
17 Cam Fowler D -0.62 0.00 +0.01 -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:29
30 Joel Hofer G -1.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.48 59:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.