Edmonton OilersEDM 6–4 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM	2	2	2	6	23
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	1	1	2	4	30

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:38	EDM	Zach Hyman (8)PP Connor McDavid (35), Leon Draisaitl (27) · backhand xG 0.50	1–0 ▶
11:52	EDM	Connor McDavid (19)PP Leon Draisaitl (28), Evan Bouchard (26) · backhand xG 0.40	2–0 ▶
19:15	PIT	Tommy Novak (6) Anthony Mantha (11) · wrist xG 0.06	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:35	EDM	Matt Savoie (7) Alec Regula (2), Mattias Janmark (5) · wrist xG 0.06	3–1 ▶
6:24	PIT	Erik Karlsson (3)PP Sidney Crosby (16), Rickard Rakell (7) · slap xG 0.08	3–2 ▶
9:36	EDM	Evan Bouchard (6)PP Connor McDavid (36), Leon Draisaitl (29) · wrist xG 0.12	4–2 ▶
3rd Period
6:47	EDM	Vasily Podkolzin (9) Leon Draisaitl (30), Mattias Ekholm (14) · wrist xG 0.19	5–2 ▶
16:51	PIT	Bryan Rust (12) Anthony Mantha (12), Erik Karlsson (22) · backhand xG 0.46	5–3 ▶
18:41	EDM	Connor McDavid (20)EN Zach Hyman (5) · wrist xG 0.54	6–3 ▶
19:46	PIT	Danton Heinen (1) Tommy Novak (11), Ryan Shea (11) · wrist xG 0.14	6–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 55%Deserve to win45% PIT

EDM		PIT
4.42	Expected goals	3.56
6	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.99	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.87
54	Shot attempts	64
46	Unblocked attempts	44
23	Shots on goal	30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:24	EDM	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · EDM takes the lead, 60–40% PIT had led since 3:10 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
12:00	EDM	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 2.12–0.08 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:20 to 18:20 of the 1st; goals 2–0
3rd Period
2:50	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.14–0.02 In xG over 10 minutes, 12:50 of the 2nd to 2:50 of the 3rd; neither team scored
16:27	PIT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 5–2 With 3:33 left; PIT scored at 16:51 of the 3rd (5–3)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	2	2	4	0	11	1.61	0	1	22:31
18	Zach Hyman	1	1	2	0	4	0.76	1	0	20:51
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0	0	0	0	4	0.32	0	1	20:01
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	4	4	0	7	0.52	0	0	18:02
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	16:29
13	Mattias Janmark	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	15:56
22	Matt Savoie	1	0	1	+2	2	0.13	0	0	15:44
92	Vasily Podkolzin	1	0	1	0	3	0.39	0	1	14:34
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	1	0	10:32
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	0	07:42
20	Curtis Lazar	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	03:17
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	1	1	2	+1	6	0.32	0	1	24:04
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	5	21:59
75	Alec Regula	0	1	1	-1	1	0.02	2	5	18:17
24	Spencer Stastney	0	0	0	-1	3	0.11	0	0	18:16
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	0	0	18:16
49	Ty Emberson	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	3	15:41

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Tristan Jarry	30	4	26	.867	3.56	-0.44

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
87	Sidney Crosby	0	1	1	-1	6	0.26	0	0	24:07
17	Bryan Rust	1	0	1	0	12	1.27	0	0	23:59
67	Rickard Rakell	0	1	1	-1	4	0.31	4	1	22:20
39	Anthony Mantha	0	2	2	0	6	0.53	0	0	19:06
81	Ben Kindel	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	0	15:21
16	Justin Brazeau	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	14:23
52	Noel Acciari	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	12:43
2	Rutger McGroarty	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	1	0	11:38
19	Connor Dewar	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	4	0	11:27
58	Danton Heinen	1	0	1	+1	5	0.23	4	0	11:06
13	Kevin Hayes	0	0	0	+1	3	0.13	2	0	10:42
18	Tommy Novak	1	1	2	+1	4	0.24	0	0	10:29
Defense
65	Erik Karlsson	1	1	2	-2	5	0.11	1	1	24:11
58	Kris Letang	0	0	0	+1	4	0.05	1	0	20:13
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	3	0	17:34
6	Ryan Shea	0	1	1	+2	3	0.02	0	0	17:33
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0	2	15:22
6	Jack St. Ivany	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	4	3	14:52

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	22	5	17	.773	3.87	-1.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
97 Connor McDavid C	+5.02	+2.90	+1.05	+0.77	+0.30	+0.01	-0.01	—	22:31
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+3.00	+2.50	+0.34	+0.25	-0.15	+0.07	0.00	—	18:02
18 Zach Hyman L	+2.60	+1.45	+0.49	+0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:51
2 Evan Bouchard D	+2.37	+1.30	+0.21	+0.83	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	24:04
22 Matt Savoie C	+1.36	+0.75	+0.08	+0.52	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	15:44
14 Mattias Ekholm D	+1.29	+0.55	+0.04	+0.74	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	18:16
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.09	+0.75	+0.25	+0.06	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	14:34
13 Mattias Janmark C	+0.83	+0.55	0.00	+0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:56
24 Spencer Stastney D	+0.38	0.00	+0.07	+0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:16
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	+0.30	0.00	+0.21	+0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	20:01
49 Ty Emberson D	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.21	-0.30	0.00	+0.15	—	15:41
19 Adam Henrique C	0.00	0.00	+0.01	-0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.01	—	16:29
75 Alec Regula D	-0.23	+0.70	+0.02	-1.02	-0.15	0.00	+0.23	—	18:17
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	-0.29	0.00	+0.07	-0.34	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:32
20 Curtis Lazar C	-0.43	0.00	0.00	-0.52	0.00	+0.04	+0.05	—	3:17
35 Tristan Jarry G	-0.44	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.44	59:55
10 Trent Frederic C	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.50	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	7:42
25 Darnell Nurse D	-0.65	0.00	+0.03	-0.78	-0.15	0.00	+0.25	—	21:59
23 Quinn Hutson R	-0.78	0.00	+0.01	-0.77	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:59

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
18 Tommy Novak C	+2.16	+1.45	+0.16	+0.60	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	10:29
39 Anthony Mantha R	+1.87	+1.40	+0.34	+0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:06
65 Erik Karlsson D	+1.46	+1.30	+0.07	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:11
5 Ryan Shea D	+1.23	+0.55	+0.01	+0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:33
13 Kevin Hayes R	+1.16	0.00	+0.09	+1.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:42
43 Danton Heinen L	+1.09	+0.75	+0.15	+0.37	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	11:06
17 Bryan Rust R	+1.05	+0.75	+0.83	-0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:59
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	+0.57	0.00	+0.04	+0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:34
67 Rickard Rakell R	+0.45	+0.55	+0.20	-0.69	+0.30	-0.02	+0.11	—	22:20
19 Connor Dewar C	+0.32	0.00	+0.12	+0.10	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	11:27
87 Sidney Crosby C	+0.31	+0.70	+0.17	-0.53	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	24:07
55 Noel Acciari C	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.11	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	12:43
58 Kris Letang D	+0.13	0.00	+0.04	+0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:13
81 Ben Kindel C	-0.07	0.00	+0.06	-0.39	+0.30	-0.01	-0.04	—	15:21
2 Rutger McGroarty R	-0.32	0.00	+0.04	-0.34	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	11:38
16 Justin Brazeau R	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.32	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	14:23
3 Jack St. Ivany D	-0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	14:52
77 Brett Kulak D	-0.93	0.00	0.00	-0.84	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	15:22
74 Stuart Skinner G	-1.13	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.13	57:26

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.