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Philadelphia FlyersPHI 3–5 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 111 3 27
Buffalo SabresBUF 122 5 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:40 BUF Jack Quinn (7) Mattias Samuelsson (8), Zach Benson (12) · tip-in xG 0.11 0–1 ▶
8:38 PHI Noah Cates (8) Bobby Brink (7) · snap xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
11:01 PHI Cam York (2) Trevor Zegras (20), Bobby Brink (8) · wrist xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
16:54 BUF Tage Thompson (17) Rasmus Dahlin (23) · wrist xG 0.17 2–2 ▶
19:30 BUF Noah Ostlund (5) Owen Power (6), Alex Tuch (18) · wrist xG 0.02 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
10:20 BUF Josh Norris (3)PP Zach Benson (13) · wrist xG 0.13 2–4 ▶
14:28 PHI Travis Konecny (10) Emil Andrae (8), Jamie Drysdale (12) · wrist xG 0.05 3–4 ▶
19:52 BUF Ryan McLeod (6)EN Mattias Samuelsson (9) · wrist xG 0.93 3–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 56%Deserve to win44% BUF
PHIBUF
3.02Expected goals3.59
3Goals (no shootout)5
2.60Expected goals, 5 on 51.80
57Shot attempts54
40Unblocked attempts43
27Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:50 PHI xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.32–0.20
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:50 to 11:50 of the 1st; goals 1–1
3rd Period
3:10 BUF No shift No shift · Kozak, 22:15 on the bench
No shift after 11:01 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:46) before that
18:09 PHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ersson, down 4–3
With 1:51 left; BUF scored at 19:52 of the 3rd (3–5)

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Sean Couturier: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:26) Travis Konecny: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:27) Trevor Zegras: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 2:15) Tage Thompson: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:59) Rodrigo Abols: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:12) Sean Couturier: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:25) Carl Grundstrom: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:28) Noah Ostlund: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:52) Cam York: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:37) Christian Dvorak: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.32 (P1 4:40) Travis Konecny: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:59) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 8:06) Bobby Brink: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:27) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:30) Owen Tippett: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:56) Rasmus Ristolainen: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:34) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:50) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:50) Rodrigo Abols: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:10) Zach Benson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 19:55) Tage Thompson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:32) Josh Doan: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:23) Zach Benson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:24) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:53) Bobby Brink: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:14) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:27) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:38) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:58) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:36) Sean Couturier: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:41) Zach Benson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:02) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:28) Owen Tippett: tip-in, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:41) Christian Dvorak: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:15) Travis Konecny: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:46) Matvei Michkov: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:58) Alex Tuch: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:24) Alex Tuch: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:34) Rasmus Dahlin: tip-in, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:39) Noah Cates: wrist, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:08) Josh Doan: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:03) Bowen Byram: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:22) Jack Quinn: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:40) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:23) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:14) Owen Power: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:32) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:11) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:19) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:11) Zach Benson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:30) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:28) Josh Doan: backhand, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35) Travis Konecny: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:15) Owen Tippett: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 19:49) Zach Benson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:59) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 0:37) Peyton Krebs: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:38) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:50) Beck Malenstyn: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:22) Owen Power: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:03) Peyton Krebs: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:53) Zach Benson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:51) Conor Timmins: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:56) Alex Tuch: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 5:58) Conor Timmins: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:08) Travis Konecny: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:45) Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:37) Trevor Zegras: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:39) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:39) Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:22) Travis Konecny: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:08) Alex Tuch: wrist, 136 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:58) Josh Norris: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:22) Josh Doan: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:05) Josh Doan: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:22) Jack Quinn: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 7:40) Noah Cates: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:38) Cam York: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:01) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:54) Noah Ostlund: GOAL, wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:30) Josh Norris: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:20) Travis Konecny: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:28) Ryan McLeod: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 19:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
46 Trevor Zegras 011 -1 20.20 0020:32
11 Travis Konecny 101 -1 70.30 2019:06
22 Christian Dvorak 000 -2 50.94 0018:37
74 Owen Tippett 000 -1 60.26 3017:21
14 Sean Couturier 000 -2 50.14 1016:07
27 Noah Cates 101 +1 30.13 1015:37
91 Carl Grundstrom 000 -1 20.22 6015:28
39 Matvei Michkov 000 +1 50.34 0015:27
10 Bobby Brink 022 +2 20.16 1114:38
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 0 00.00 3008:39
18 Rodrigo Abols 000 0 20.05 2008:20
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 00.00 4006:43
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 000 -1 10.00 0123:12
8 Cam York 101 -1 20.16 0020:31
9 Jamie Drysdale 011 +1 70.09 0119:46
24 Nick Seeler 000 -1 30.00 2419:07
36 Emil Andrae 011 +1 20.00 2017:15
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 -1 30.03 2316:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Ersson 27423 .852 2.66 -1.34

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 011 +1 50.33 3521:29
72 Tage Thompson 101 -1 50.24 1120:19
9 Josh Norris 101 +1 30.19 1019:38
91 Josh Doan 000 0 60.44 1019:36
71 Ryan McLeod 101 +2 20.93 0018:35
6 Zach Benson 022 +1 60.31 0017:11
86 Noah Ostlund 101 +1 30.08 0013:40
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -1 30.33 5013:35
22 Jack Quinn 101 +1 20.17 0112:36
12 Jordan Greenway 000 -1 00.00 0009:43
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 -1 20.10 6108:56
48 Tyson Kozak 000 -1 10.13 1004:46
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 +1 40.07 1023:20
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 10.06 1120:41
25 Owen Power 011 +1 30.07 0120:13
23 Mattias Samuelsson 022 +1 40.10 1119:43
21 Conor Timmins 000 0 30.03 2116:00
7 Michael Kesselring 000 0 10.03 1314:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 27324 .889 3.02 +0.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 Bobby Brink R +1.81 +1.25 +0.10 +0.58 -0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 14:38
11 Travis Konecny R +1.77 +0.75 +0.19 +0.98 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:06
46 Trevor Zegras C +1.52 +0.70 +0.13 +0.92 -0.15 0.00 -0.08 — 20:32
9 Jamie Drysdale D +1.28 +0.55 +0.06 +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:46
22 Christian Dvorak C +1.20 0.00 +0.61 +0.41 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 18:37
8 Cam York D +1.20 +0.75 +0.10 +0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:31
36 Emil Andrae D +1.07 +0.70 0.00 +0.22 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:15
39 Matvei Michkov R +1.00 0.00 +0.22 +0.93 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:27
27 Noah Cates L +0.98 +0.75 +0.09 +0.17 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 15:37
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:12
24 Nick Seeler D +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 19:07
74 Owen Tippett R +0.27 0.00 +0.17 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:21
14 Sean Couturier C +0.12 0.00 +0.09 -0.05 0.00 +0.09 -0.02 — 16:07
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D -0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 16:59
91 Carl Grundstrom R -0.19 0.00 +0.14 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:28
18 Rodrigo Abols C -0.29 0.00 +0.03 -0.29 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 8:20
19 Garnet Hathaway R -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:39
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:43
33 Samuel Ersson G -1.34 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.34 58:17

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Tage Thompson C +1.50 +0.75 +0.15 +0.55 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 20:19
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +1.40 +1.40 +0.06 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:43
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +1.10 +0.70 +0.04 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 -0.12 — 23:20
9 Josh Norris C +1.07 +0.75 +0.12 +0.24 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 19:38
91 Josh Doan R +0.94 0.00 +0.28 +0.65 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 19:36
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.91 +0.75 +0.05 +0.10 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:40
6 Zach Benson L +0.75 +1.25 +0.20 -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:11
89 Alex Tuch R +0.67 +0.55 +0.22 -0.20 -0.15 +0.01 +0.25 — 21:29
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.55 0.00 +0.22 +0.26 +0.15 -0.02 -0.06 — 13:35
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.42 +0.75 +0.60 -1.05 +0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 18:35
34 Alex Lyon G +0.17 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +0.02 59:52
22 Jack Quinn R -0.11 +0.75 +0.11 -1.02 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 12:36
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.16 0.00 +0.08 -0.23 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 4:46
4 Bowen Byram D -0.23 0.00 +0.04 -0.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 20:41
25 Owen Power D -0.24 +0.70 +0.04 -0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 20:13
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.27 0.00 +0.06 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 8:56
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.44 0.00 +0.02 -0.78 +0.15 0.00 +0.17 — 14:07
21 Conor Timmins D -0.48 0.00 +0.02 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:00
12 Jordan Greenway L -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:43

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.