| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 31 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 18:58 | Jonatan Berggren (3) Dalibor Dvorsky (2) · wrist xG 0.03 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 6:02 | Gabe Perreault (1)PP Will Cuylle (10), Noah Laba (6) · deflected xG 0.10 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| Overtime | |||
| 2:21 | J.T. Miller (10) Vincent Trocheck (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (8) · wrist xG 0.06 | 2–1 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NYR | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.24 | Expected goals | 2.62 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 1 |
| 2.24 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.87 |
| 53 | Shot attempts | 56 |
| 44 | Unblocked attempts | 39 |
| 31 | Shots on goal | 27 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:10 | NYR | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.64–0.11
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:00 to 13:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 6:40 | STL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NYR 1.44–0.11
In xG over 10 minutes, 17:10 of the 2nd to 7:10 of the 3rd; neither team scored |
| 18:47 | STL | Goalie | Goalie · Binnington +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.10 xG, 30 shots on goal |
| 19:00 | STL | No shift | No shift · Luff, 11:01 on the bench
No shift after 8:59 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (7:20) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 16 | Vincent Trocheck | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.42 | 3 | 1 | 22:49 |
| 93 | Mika Zibanejad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.35 | 1 | 0 | 21:26 |
| 10 | J.T. Miller | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 1 | 20:57 |
| 13 | Alexis Lafrenière | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 2 | 19:17 |
| 50 | Will Cuylle | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 2 | 17:52 |
| 43 | Conor Sheary | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 1 | 15:36 |
| 42 | Noah Laba | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 13:29 |
| 94 | Gabe Perreault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 13:09 |
| 10 | Sam Carrick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 1 | 11:41 |
| 14 | Taylor Raddysh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 0 | 10:47 |
| 73 | Matt Rempe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 08:02 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 44 | Vladislav Gavrikov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 26:36 |
| 4 | Braden Schneider | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 4 | 24:02 |
| 29 | Matthew Robertson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 2 | 0 | 17:58 |
| 17 | Will Borgen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 16:53 |
| 7 | Carson Soucy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | 16:09 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | 27 | 1 | 26 | .963 | 2.62 | +1.62 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 18 | Robert Thomas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.65 | 0 | 1 | 21:03 |
| 89 | Pavel Buchnevich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.58 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 |
| 22 | Pius Suter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 17:23 |
| 29 | Jonatan Berggren | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 0 | 17:04 |
| 10 | Brayden Schenn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 1 | 16:48 |
| 63 | Jake Neighbours | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 16:32 |
| 15 | Dalibor Dvorsky | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 15:40 |
| 28 | Otto Stenberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 15:12 |
| 70 | Oskar Sundqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 |
| 13 | Alexey Toropchenko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 12:57 |
| 21 | Mathieu Joseph | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 72 | Justin Faulk | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 8 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 25:12 |
| 17 | Cam Fowler | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 |
| 55 | Colton Parayko | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.16 | 1 | 1 | 19:54 |
| 6 | Philip Broberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 19:53 |
| 75 | Tyler Tucker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 16:11 |
| 23 | Logan Mailloux | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | 31 | 2 | 29 | .935 | 3.24 | +1.24 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Igor Shesterkin G | +1.62 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.62 | 62:21 |
| 8 J.T. Miller C | +1.47 | +0.75 | +0.37 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.07 | — | 20:57 |
| 60 Scott Morrow D | +1.29 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:06 |
| 16 Vincent Trocheck C | +1.26 | +0.70 | +0.27 | +0.27 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 22:49 |
| 39 Sam Carrick C | +1.13 | 0.00 | +0.31 | +0.64 | +0.15 | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | 11:41 |
| 29 Matthew Robertson D | +0.79 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:58 |
| 94 Gabe Perreault R | +0.76 | +0.75 | +0.08 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:09 |
| 44 Vladislav Gavrikov D | +0.70 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 26:36 |
| 50 Will Cuylle L | +0.60 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 17:52 |
| 78 Brennan Othmann L | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.49 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 7:14 |
| 73 Matt Rempe C | +0.52 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:02 |
| 42 Noah Laba C | +0.51 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:29 |
| 43 Conor Sheary L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 15:36 |
| 4 Braden Schneider D | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 24:02 |
| 13 Alexis Lafrenière L | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 19:17 |
| 93 Mika Zibanejad C | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.23 | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 21:26 |
| 14 Taylor Raddysh R | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.36 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 10:47 |
| 17 Will Borgen D | -0.62 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.62 | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:53 |
| 24 Carson Soucy D | -0.72 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:09 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jonatan Berggren R | +1.82 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.83 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:04 |
| 18 Robert Thomas C | +1.29 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.83 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 21:03 |
| 50 Jordan Binnington G | +1.24 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.24 | 62:21 |
| 17 Cam Fowler D | +1.11 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.93 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 22:22 |
| 89 Pavel Buchnevich L | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.82 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 20:44 |
| 22 Pius Suter C | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 17:23 |
| 54 Dalibor Dvorsky R | +0.34 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 15:40 |
| 6 Philip Broberg D | +0.18 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 19:53 |
| 23 Logan Mailloux D | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:32 |
| 71 Mathieu Joseph R | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:19 |
| 70 Oskar Sundqvist C | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:02 |
| 63 Jake Neighbours L | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.36 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:32 |
| 55 Colton Parayko D | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:54 |
| 39 Matt Luff R | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:20 |
| 13 Alexey Toropchenko R | -0.47 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.60 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 12:57 |
| 75 Tyler Tucker D | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:11 |
| 10 Brayden Schenn C | -0.56 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.82 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 16:48 |
| 72 Justin Faulk D | -0.63 | 0.00 | +0.16 | -0.62 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 25:12 |
| 28 Otto Stenberg C | -0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.90 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.10 | — | 15:12 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.