hockeystats.io

Winnipeg JetsWPG 2–3 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Friday, December 19, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 011 2 22
Colorado AvalancheCOL 201 3 26

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:45 COL Brent Burns (5) Josh Manson (9), Joel Kiviranta (2) · wrist xG 0.01 0–1 ▶
15:05 COL Martin Necas (15) Nathan MacKinnon (31), Artturi Lehkonen (16) · wrist xG 0.16 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
19:22 WPG Morgan Barron (6)SH Alex Iafallo (7) · backhand xG 0.23 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:58 COL Parker Kelly (7) Josh Manson (10), Valeri Nichushkin (11) · snap xG 0.21 1–3 ▶
3:38 WPG Mark Scheifele (17)PP Gustav Nyquist (7) · snap xG 0.18 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 17%Deserve to win83% COL
WPGCOL
1.49Expected goals3.80
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.06Expected goals, 5 on 52.90
48Shot attempts58
33Unblocked attempts43
22Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:20 WPG No shift No shift · Perfetti, 17:42 on the bench
No shift after 1:13 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (8:37) before that
19:00 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 3–2
With 1:00 left

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Martin Necas: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:07) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:22) Ross Colton: wrist, 102 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:38) Brock Nelson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:12) Morgan Barron: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:28) Adam Lowry: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:30) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:35) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:33) Neal Pionk: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:42) Martin Necas: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:55) Ross Colton: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:20) Sam Malinski: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:51) Alex Iafallo: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:09) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:11) Samuel Girard: slap, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:50) Samuel Girard: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:08) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:18) Josh Morrissey: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:26) Gustav Nyquist: tip-in, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:10) Sam Malinski: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:27) Dylan Samberg: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:46) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:38) Victor Olofsson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 2:32) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:47) Martin Necas: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:17) Martin Necas: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:36) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:41) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:45) Victor Olofsson: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:31) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:13) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:33) Gustav Nyquist: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:53) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:36) Neal Pionk: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:48) Cale Makar: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:59) Valeri Nichushkin: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.44 (P2 9:02) Kyle Connor: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:13) Logan Stanley: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:37) Tanner Pearson: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 10:40) Haydn Fleury: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:46) Joel Kiviranta: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:58) Cale Makar: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:46) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:59) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:31) Brock Nelson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 16:55) Brock Nelson: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:56) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:40) Devon Toews: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:02) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:31) Artturi Lehkonen: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:59) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:12) Brock Nelson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:51) Cale Makar: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:34) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 2:20) Josh Manson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:28) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:40) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:10) Kyle Connor: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:40) Logan Stanley: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:56) Kyle Connor: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:47) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:54) Victor Olofsson: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:30) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:17) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:33) Morgan Barron: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:39) Devon Toews: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:12) Brock Nelson: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:34) Joel Kiviranta: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:55) Josh Manson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:17) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:02) Jack Drury: snap, 158 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 19:24) Brent Burns: GOAL, wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:45) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 15:05) Morgan Barron: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 19:22) Parker Kelly: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 1:58) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 3:38)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 101 -1 30.28 0123:19
81 Kyle Connor 000 -1 70.12 0020:57
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 20.03 1120:25
36 Morgan Barron 101 +1 30.24 1116:04
17 Adam Lowry 000 0 20.03 2114:42
9 Alex Iafallo 011 +1 30.01 0014:10
14 Gustav Nyquist 011 0 20.07 1013:08
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 -2 10.02 2012:56
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 -2 10.00 0112:13
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 20.04 0211:01
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 10.32 2109:18
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -2 30.04 0208:37
Defense
4 Neal Pionk 000 +1 30.04 3025:11
44 Josh Morrissey 000 -1 50.16 0023:43
54 Dylan Samberg 000 +1 30.03 1322:27
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 -1 20.01 1220:23
8 Logan Stanley 000 -2 30.02 5015:19
24 Haydn Fleury 000 -2 20.03 1011:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 26323 .885 3.44 +0.44

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 0 10.02 0024:21
43 Valeri Nichushkin 011 0 40.54 0121:16
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 -1 30.28 4021:09
11 Brock Nelson 000 -1 70.66 0019:38
62 Artturi Lehkonen 011 +1 30.42 2018:44
88 Martin Necas 101 +1 60.33 1016:57
18 Jack Drury 000 +2 10.36 1212:56
17 Parker Kelly 101 +2 10.21 6010:49
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 00.00 1110:28
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 30.36 0010:00
22 Joel Kiviranta 011 +1 50.28 2009:24
79 Ross Colton 000 0 20.04 1008:18
Defense
8 Cale Makar 000 -1 50.14 0326:17
7 Devon Toews 000 0 20.08 0221:42
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 40.01 1017:16
84 Brent Burns 101 +2 50.01 0116:57
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 40.04 0216:06
42 Josh Manson 022 +3 20.03 2115:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 22220 .909 1.49 -0.51

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
14 Gustav Nyquist R +0.65 +0.70 +0.05 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:08
36 Morgan Barron C +0.55 +0.75 +0.16 -0.44 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 16:04
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +0.44 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.44 59:00
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.34 +0.70 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:10
70 Tanner Pearson L -0.12 0.00 +0.21 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 9:18
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.22 0.00 +0.03 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:01
17 Adam Lowry C -0.27 0.00 +0.02 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:42
55 Mark Scheifele C -0.33 +0.75 +0.18 -1.21 -0.15 +0.02 +0.07 — 23:19
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.49 0.00 +0.02 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:27
62 Nino Niederreiter R -0.56 0.00 +0.02 -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:56
2 Dylan DeMelo D -0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:23
4 Neal Pionk D -0.70 0.00 +0.03 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 25:11
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.72 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 12:13
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.73 0.00 +0.02 -0.68 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 8:37
44 Josh Morrissey D -0.77 0.00 +0.11 -0.98 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 23:43
24 Haydn Fleury D -0.82 0.00 +0.02 -0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:07
81 Kyle Connor L -0.94 0.00 +0.08 -1.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:57
64 Logan Stanley D -1.03 0.00 +0.01 -1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:19
13 Gabriel Vilardi C -1.13 0.00 +0.02 -1.33 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 20:25

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
42 Josh Manson D +2.63 +1.40 +0.02 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:35
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +2.28 +0.55 +0.35 +1.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:16
84 Brent Burns D +2.13 +0.75 +0.01 +1.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:57
88 Martin Necas C +1.71 +0.75 +0.22 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:57
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.70 +0.70 +0.02 +0.92 +0.15 -0.04 -0.04 — 24:21
8 Cale Makar D +1.57 0.00 +0.09 +1.18 +0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 26:17
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +1.56 +0.55 +0.27 +0.78 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:44
11 Brock Nelson C +1.54 0.00 +0.43 +1.07 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 19:38
17 Parker Kelly C +1.46 +0.75 +0.13 +0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:49
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.92 +0.55 +0.18 +0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:24
18 Jack Drury C +0.79 0.00 +0.24 +0.42 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 12:56
49 Samuel Girard D +0.72 0.00 +0.01 +0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:16
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +0.70 0.00 +0.18 +0.72 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 21:09
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.57 0.00 +0.23 +0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:00
7 Devon Toews D +0.40 0.00 +0.05 +0.40 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:42
70 Sam Malinski D +0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:06
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:28
20 Ross Colton C +0.08 0.00 +0.03 +0.08 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 8:18
41 Scott Wedgewood G -0.51 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.51 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.