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New York IslandersNYI 2–3 Final/SO Buffalo SabresBUF

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 01101 2 34
Buffalo SabresBUF 11002 3 32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:47 BUF Rasmus Dahlin (4)PP Alex Lyon (1) · backhand xG 0.13 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
8:55 BUF Tage Thompson (18) Josh Doan (14), Peyton Krebs (10) · backhand xG 0.16 0–2 ▶
19:37 NYI Mathew Barzal (10) Anders Lee (14), Simon Holmstrom (8) · snap xG 0.32 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:31 NYI Emil Heineman (12)PP Mathew Barzal (19), Matthew Schaefer (15) · wrist xG 0.11 2–2 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
BUF Tage Thompson vs David Rittich Saved
NYI Mathew Barzal vs Alex Lyon Goal
BUF Jack Quinn vs David Rittich Goal
NYI Simon Holmstrom vs Alex Lyon Missed
BUF Alex Tuch vs David Rittich Missed
NYI Emil Heineman vs Alex Lyon Missed
BUF Noah Ostlund vs David Rittich Missed
NYI Jonathan Drouin vs Alex Lyon Saved
BUF Josh Norris vs David Rittich Goal
NYI Calum Ritchie vs Alex Lyon Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 48%Deserve to win52% BUF
NYIBUF
3.67Expected goals4.19
2Goals (no shootout)2
2.22Expected goals, 5 on 52.22
66Shot attempts56
53Unblocked attempts47
34Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
10:50 BUF xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.20–0.05
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:20 to 11:20 of the 3rd; neither team scored
Overtime
3:20 NYI xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.33–0.07
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:10 of the 3rd to 4:10 of overtime; goals 1–0

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Marc Gatcomb: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:12) Alex Tuch: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:56) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:03) Zach Benson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 5:17) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:20) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:57) Casey Cizikas: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:58) Marc Gatcomb: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:10) Adam Pelech: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:17) Anders Lee: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:10) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:25) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:43) Marshall Warren: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:23) Josh Dunne: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:32) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:05) Jack Quinn: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:40) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:23) Alex Tuch: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:47) Alex Tuch: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:24) Owen Power: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:52) Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:06) Bowen Byram: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 16:56) Bowen Byram: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:10) Emil Heineman: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:00) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:16) Tage Thompson: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 18:30) Adam Pelech: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:16) Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:25) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:34) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:53) Josh Doan: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:14) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:54) Jack Quinn: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:19) Josh Doan: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:09) Josh Dunne: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:32) Josh Norris: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:52) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:29) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:51) Marc Gatcomb: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:19) Zach Metsa: slap, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 6:42) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:52) Alex Tuch: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:04) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:25) Alex Tuch: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:51) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 187 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:56) Jonathan Drouin: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:56) Emil Heineman: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:16) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:09) Calum Ritchie: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:10) Owen Power: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:20) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:32) Emil Heineman: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:04) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:09) Emil Heineman: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 16:14) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:21) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:12) Emil Heineman: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:06) Emil Heineman: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:11) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:38) Tage Thompson: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:04) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:09) Mathew Barzal: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 19:35) Jack Quinn: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:34) Adam Pelech: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:44) Emil Heineman: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:45) Jack Quinn: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:06) Zach Benson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:55) Zach Benson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:00) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:36) Josh Doan: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 5:38) Tage Thompson: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:43) Zach Benson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:25) Owen Power: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:37) Rasmus Dahlin: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 10:48) Josh Doan: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:12) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:21) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:26) Emil Heineman: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:35) Mathew Barzal: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:40) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:19) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:28) Ryan Pulock: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:58) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:11) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:22) Jack Quinn: wrist, 149 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 17:20) Emil Heineman: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:30) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 1:25) Simon Holmstrom: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.42 (OT 2:48) Simon Holmstrom: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 2:49) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 3:03) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 3:20) Alex Tuch: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 3:58) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (OT 4:07) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 4:09) Josh Norris: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:38) Alex Tuch: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.25 (OT 4:43) Rasmus Dahlin: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:47) Tage Thompson: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 8:55) Mathew Barzal: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 19:37) Emil Heineman: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 112 +1 60.73 0123:33
72 Anders Lee 011 +1 30.12 1020:04
51 Emil Heineman 101 -1 110.59 4118:49
92 Simon Holmstrom 011 +1 70.83 0017:49
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 -1 10.04 0017:16
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.03 2216:18
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -1 50.25 1015:34
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 00.00 1113:55
64 Calum Ritchie 000 0 20.15 0012:57
72 Maxim Tsyplakov 000 0 20.05 1012:08
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 30.27 3011:14
11 Anthony Duclair 000 0 00.00 0010:48
Defense
3 Adam Pelech 000 +1 50.06 4026:25
48 Matthew Schaefer 011 -1 50.24 1123:36
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 0 60.28 2022:55
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 50.02 2120:18
24 Scott Mayfield 000 +1 20.01 2117:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 32230 .938 3.78 +1.78

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 101 0 40.54 0022:48
89 Alex Tuch 000 0 80.42 1121:06
9 Josh Norris 000 0 20.19 0019:39
91 Josh Doan 011 0 40.50 0019:09
6 Zach Benson 000 0 50.49 0018:25
71 Ryan McLeod 000 0 00.00 1017:06
22 Jack Quinn 000 0 60.59 0015:24
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.07 0014:42
19 Peyton Krebs 011 0 00.00 3113:29
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.08 1110:20
12 Jordan Greenway 000 0 10.00 1009:33
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 20.12 5108:55
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 101 +1 100.62 1025:52
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 +1 00.00 1124:12
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 30.28 3122:49
7 Michael Kesselring 000 -1 30.05 1317:28
25 Owen Power 000 -1 30.10 0217:05
73 Zach Metsa 000 0 10.13 0014:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 34232 .941 3.67 +1.67

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
13 Mathew Barzal C +2.45 +1.45 +0.47 +0.48 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 23:33
33 David Rittich G +1.78 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.78 62:39
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.37 +0.55 +0.54 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:49
24 Scott Mayfield D +1.34 0.00 +0.01 +1.31 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:48
27 Anders Lee L +1.22 +0.70 +0.08 +0.33 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 20:04
51 Emil Heineman L +1.15 +0.75 +0.38 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:49
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.36 0.00 +0.18 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 22:55
16 Marc Gatcomb C +0.30 0.00 +0.17 +0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:14
3 Adam Pelech D +0.23 0.00 +0.04 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 26:25
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.04 +0.55 +0.15 -0.87 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 23:36
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.02 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 -0.04 +0.10 — 16:18
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:55
29 Jonathan Drouin L -0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.10 0.00 +0.04 -0.04 — 17:16
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.11 0.00 +0.10 -0.17 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 12:57
7 Maxim Tsyplakov R -0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.24 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 12:08
41 Marshall Warren D -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:51
11 Anthony Duclair L -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:48
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.31 0.00 +0.16 -0.37 -0.15 +0.05 0.00 — 15:34
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.99 0.00 +0.01 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:18

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
34 Alex Lyon G +2.37 +0.70 — — 0.00 — — +1.67 64:55
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +2.01 +0.75 +0.40 +0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 25:52
72 Tage Thompson C +0.99 +0.75 +0.35 -0.17 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 22:48
91 Josh Doan R +0.89 +0.70 +0.33 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:09
4 Bowen Byram D +0.69 0.00 +0.18 +0.33 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 22:49
9 Josh Norris C +0.67 0.00 +0.12 +0.58 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 19:39
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 24:12
89 Alex Tuch R +0.57 0.00 +0.27 +0.43 -0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 21:06
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.50 0.00 +0.04 +0.42 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 14:42
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.36 +0.55 0.00 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:29
73 Zach Metsa D +0.30 0.00 +0.08 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:05
44 Josh Dunne C +0.20 0.00 +0.05 +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 10:20
12 Jordan Greenway L +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:33
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.10 0.00 +0.08 +0.12 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 8:55
22 Jack Quinn R +0.07 0.00 +0.39 -0.45 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:24
6 Zach Benson L 0.00 0.00 +0.32 -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:25
71 Ryan McLeod C -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 -0.11 -0.04 — 17:06
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.92 0.00 +0.03 -0.93 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 17:28
25 Owen Power D -1.07 0.00 +0.07 -1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:05

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.