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St. Louis BluesSTL 6–2 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 123 6 32
Florida PanthersFLA 020 2 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:59 STL Jake Neighbours (9) Cam Fowler (12), Otto Stenberg (1) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:55 STL Jonatan Berggren (4)PP Pavel Buchnevich (13), Robert Thomas (18) · wrist xG 0.10 2–0 ▶
7:35 FLA A.J. Greer (7) Jesper Boqvist (4), Seth Jones (15) · deflected xG 0.37 2–1 ▶
12:45 FLA Sam Reinhart (19)PP Brad Marchand (20), Sam Bennett (13) · wrist xG 0.13 2–2 ▶
19:59 STL Justin Faulk (9) Jonatan Berggren (5) · slap xG 0.01 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
12:02 STL Jake Neighbours (10) Otto Stenberg (2), Brayden Schenn (8) · wrist xG 0.31 4–2 ▶
12:53 STL Robert Thomas (8) Pavel Buchnevich (14), Jonatan Berggren (6) · snap xG 0.15 5–2 ▶
16:28 STL Robert Thomas (9)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.55 6–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 51%Deserve to win49% FLA
STLFLA
3.64Expected goals2.66
6Goals (no shootout)2
2.29Expected goals, 5 on 51.67
54Shot attempts54
46Unblocked attempts38
32Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
12:17 FLA Deserve to win Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 60–40%
STL had led since 3:14 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
12:40 FLA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.85–0.42
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
12:53 FLA Goalie Goalie · Tarasov −2.3 goals saved
5 goals on 2.65 xG, 28 shots on goal

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots
Otto Stenberg: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:10) Anton Lundell: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:02) Robby Fabbri: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 2:12) Brayden Schenn: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:14) Pavel Buchnevich: poke, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:19) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:56) Pavel Buchnevich: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:13) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:04) Luke Kunin: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:16) Brayden Schenn: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:44) Robby Fabbri: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 8:59) Philip Broberg: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:04) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:30) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:11) Tyler Tucker: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:45) Pius Suter: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:03) Tyler Tucker: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:04) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:25) A.J. Greer: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:48) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:25) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:39) Seth Jones: wrist, 185 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:59) Robert Thomas: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:20) Robert Thomas: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:38) Brad Marchand: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 3:22) Seth Jones: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:36) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:22) Jonatan Berggren: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 6:08) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:31) Jack Studnicka: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:38) Seth Jones: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 7:32) Seth Jones: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:24) Seth Jones: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:42) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:13) Seth Jones: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:33) Sam Bennett: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 9:42) Sam Bennett: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:56) Pius Suter: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:11) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:21) Sam Bennett: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:53) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:17) Justin Faulk: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:53) Colton Parayko: wrist, 127 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:21) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:14) Sam Bennett: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:03) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:07) Gustav Forsling: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:52) Justin Faulk: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:18) Colton Parayko: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:09) Justin Faulk: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:23) Sam Bennett: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:18) Jack Studnicka: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:42) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:44) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:50) Jonatan Berggren: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:39) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:40) Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:48) Tyler Tucker: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:53) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:03) Seth Jones: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:37) Brad Marchand: backhand, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:00) Justin Faulk: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:59) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:10) Seth Jones: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:09) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:15) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:44) Colton Parayko: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:41) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:04) Justin Faulk: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:10) Anton Lundell: deflected, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:06) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:14) Brad Marchand: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:43) Seth Jones: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:15) Joel Hofer: wrist, 175 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 15:34) Evan Rodrigues: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:26) Robby Fabbri: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:53) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:59) Jonatan Berggren: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:55) A.J. Greer: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 7:35) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:45) Justin Faulk: GOAL, slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:59) Jake Neighbours: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 12:02) Robert Thomas: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:53) Robert Thomas: GOAL, wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.55 (P3 16:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 213 +3 60.88 1019:09
89 Pavel Buchnevich 022 +3 30.08 0018:22
22 Pius Suter 000 0 40.17 0216:50
29 Jonatan Berggren 123 +2 30.32 0015:47
63 Jake Neighbours 202 +2 30.48 1015:46
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 20.01 1114:10
10 Brayden Schenn 011 +2 30.16 1013:53
21 Robby Fabbri 000 0 30.43 1013:40
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 -1 10.01 2112:52
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 -1 20.02 6012:42
28 Otto Stenberg 022 +2 30.15 1011:39
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -1 00.00 0011:32
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 101 +1 60.18 0422:44
55 Colton Parayko 000 +2 30.06 1121:35
6 Philip Broberg 000 +2 10.03 1021:11
17 Cam Fowler 011 +2 00.00 0118:23
75 Tyler Tucker 000 0 90.23 2317:40
23 Logan Mailloux 000 +1 10.06 1115:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 29227 .931 2.66 +0.66

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Sam Bennett 011 -1 70.47 1120:26
63 Brad Marchand 011 -1 50.28 3019:27
13 Sam Reinhart 101 -2 30.27 0019:04
15 Anton Lundell 000 -2 40.14 2018:04
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -1 40.25 0018:04
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 -1 00.00 2017:59
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -2 60.09 1016:58
18 A.J. Greer 101 -2 20.42 4014:37
70 Jesper Boqvist 011 -2 00.00 3112:32
73 Noah Gregor 000 0 00.00 2109:02
23 Jack Studnicka 000 0 30.04 0108:23
71 Luke Kunin 000 0 10.04 4008:12
Defense
3 Seth Jones 011 -1 90.55 0024:58
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 00.00 1021:33
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -3 20.02 0019:57
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -3 20.00 3219:21
2 Jeff Petry 000 0 30.00 0115:30
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 0 30.10 0012:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 31526 .839 2.74 -2.26

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Robert Thomas C +3.27 +2.05 +0.57 +0.57 0.00 +0.06 +0.02 — 19:09
63 Jake Neighbours L +2.97 +1.50 +0.31 +1.19 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 15:46
29 Jonatan Berggren R +2.91 +2.00 +0.21 +0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:47
28 Otto Stenberg C +2.39 +1.25 +0.10 +1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:39
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +2.18 +1.40 +0.05 +0.59 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 18:22
10 Brayden Schenn C +1.66 +0.55 +0.10 +0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:53
72 Justin Faulk D +1.36 +0.75 +0.12 +0.42 -0.15 0.00 +0.22 — 22:44
17 Cam Fowler D +1.30 +0.70 0.00 +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:23
9 Robby Fabbri C +0.76 0.00 +0.28 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:40
30 Joel Hofer G +0.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.66 60:00
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.56 0.00 +0.04 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:04
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.53 0.00 +0.15 +0.42 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 17:40
22 Pius Suter C +0.48 0.00 +0.11 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 16:50
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.45 0.00 +0.01 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:10
6 Philip Broberg D +0.30 0.00 +0.02 +0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:11
55 Colton Parayko D +0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 21:35
71 Mathieu Joseph R -0.72 0.00 +0.02 -0.98 +0.30 -0.03 -0.02 — 12:42
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.83 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 11:32
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -1.28 0.00 +0.01 -1.32 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:52

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
3 Seth Jones D +1.05 +0.55 +0.36 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:58
9 Sam Bennett C +0.91 +0.55 +0.31 -0.01 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 20:26
63 Brad Marchand L +0.80 +0.70 +0.18 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:27
13 Sam Reinhart C +0.77 +0.75 +0.17 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:04
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.43 +0.70 0.00 -0.47 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:32
10 A.J. Greer L +0.31 +0.75 +0.28 -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:37
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.30 0.00 +0.16 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:04
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:33
53 Jack Studnicka C -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:23
71 Luke Kunin C -0.07 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 8:12
2 Jeff Petry D -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:30
26 Uvis Balinskis D -0.14 0.00 +0.06 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:59
18 Noah Gregor L -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 9:02
17 Evan Rodrigues C -0.23 0.00 +0.06 -0.42 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 16:58
15 Anton Lundell C -0.45 0.00 +0.09 -0.51 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:04
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:59
5 Aaron Ekblad D -1.10 0.00 0.00 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:21
42 Gustav Forsling D -1.51 0.00 +0.01 -1.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:57
40 Daniil Tarasov G -2.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.26 57:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.