hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 4–6 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 301 4 22
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 033 6 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:42 CAR Eric Robinson (7) Jordan Staal (5) · slap xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
4:00 CAR Jackson Blake (10)PP Nikolaj Ehlers (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (23) · tip-in xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
12:27 CAR Bradly Nadeau (2)PP Logan Stankoven (10) · wrist xG 0.15 3–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:30 TBL Gage Goncalves (3) Dominic James (4), Max Crozier (5) · snap xG 0.23 3–1 ▶
1:20 TBL Brayden Point (6) Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (30) · tip-in xG 0.21 3–2 ▶
16:36 TBL Jack Finley (2) Dominic James (5), Yanni Gourde (7) · wrist xG 0.30 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:47 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (8) Mark Jankowski (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4) · backhand xG 0.25 4–3 ▶
3:13 TBL Ryan McDonagh (4) Pontus Holmberg (6), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (8) · wrist xG 0.19 4–4 ▶
6:38 TBL Jake Guentzel (16) J.J. Moser (9), Nick Paul (5) · backhand xG 0.12 4–5 ▶
19:33 TBL Jake Guentzel (17)EN Ryan McDonagh (4) · wrist xG 0.42 4–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 22%Deserve to win78% TBL
CARTBL
2.00Expected goals4.15
4Goals (no shootout)6
1.11Expected goals, 5 on 53.27
50Shot attempts61
35Unblocked attempts45
22Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:27 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 60–40%
TBL had led since 5:18 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
2nd Period
4:05 TBL Deserve to win Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39%
CAR had led since 12:27 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
6:40 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.33–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:10 of the 1st to 9:10 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
2:47 TBL Goalie Goalie · Vasilevskiy −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.83 xG, 19 shots on goal
18:39 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Kochetkov, down 5–4
With 1:21 left; TBL scored at 19:33 of the 3rd (4–6)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Darren Raddysh: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:53) Eric Robinson: poke, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:25) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 5:16) Nick Paul: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 5:18) Zemgus Girgensons: tip-in, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:39) Nick Paul: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:12) Nick Paul: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:18) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:39) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:59) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:12) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:22) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:33) Logan Stankoven: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:41) Taylor Hall: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:48) Jake Guentzel: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:33) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:54) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:07) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:43) Taylor Hall: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:08) Declan Carlile: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:34) Sean Walker: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:13) Max Crozier: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:25) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:55) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:15) Brayden Point: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:21) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:42) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:53) Sean Walker: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:13) Jake Guentzel: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:05) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:28) Anthony Cirelli: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:29) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:30) Anthony Cirelli: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:42) Brayden Point: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:40) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:41) Eric Robinson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:03) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:50) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:20) J.J. Moser: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:10) J.J. Moser: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:22) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:33) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:09) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 12:11) Sean Walker: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:17) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:26) Bradly Nadeau: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:12) Logan Stankoven: deflected, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:01) Jack Finley: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:34) Bradly Nadeau: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:16) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:25) Sean Walker: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:27) Bradly Nadeau: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:28) Sean Walker: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:38) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:39) Nick Paul: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:37) Nick Paul: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:29) J.J. Moser: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:36) J.J. Moser: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 10:45) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:00) Brayden Point: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:37) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:38) Declan Carlile: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:08) Bradly Nadeau: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:33) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:01) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:11) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:15) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:53) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:47) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:01) Mike Reilly: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:42) Eric Robinson: GOAL, slap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:42) Jackson Blake: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:00) Bradly Nadeau: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:27) Gage Goncalves: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 0:30) Brayden Point: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 1:20) Jack Finley: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 16:36) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 2:47) Ryan McDonagh: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 3:13) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:38) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 119 ft, xG 0.42 (P3 19:33)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -3 20.11 1021:19
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 -3 10.08 0219:36
53 Jackson Blake 101 -3 10.07 0019:25
37 Andrei Svechnikov 101 -1 80.53 2018:12
22 Logan Stankoven 011 -1 30.20 0016:22
71 Taylor Hall 000 -2 20.29 0315:52
11 Jordan Staal 011 -1 00.00 4115:08
50 Eric Robinson 101 0 30.21 1013:50
77 Mark Jankowski 011 +1 20.00 1010:55
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 011 +1 10.00 1010:06
28 William Carrier 000 0 10.00 3209:50
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -1 50.03 2221:28
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 -2 20.03 0119:59
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 +1 50.01 2219:45
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 011 -2 20.04 0118:11
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 60.11 2018:05
6 Mike Reilly 000 -2 10.01 0113:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Pyotr Kochetkov 28523 .821 3.73 -1.27

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 +2 60.12 2122:30
86 Nikita Kucherov 011 +1 40.13 0119:25
59 Jake Guentzel 202 +1 71.05 1119:19
21 Brayden Point 101 0 50.50 0118:25
37 Yanni Gourde 011 +1 60.39 1116:13
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 +1 20.04 3013:44
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 00.00 1013:01
20 Nick Paul 011 0 60.34 2212:50
29 Pontus Holmberg 011 +1 40.16 0012:26
17 Dominic James 022 +2 10.00 0010:44
93 Gage Goncalves 101 +1 20.23 1110:18
37 Jack Finley 101 +2 20.45 1008:19
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 +1 30.27 1023:06
90 J.J. Moser 011 +2 40.21 3322:55
27 Ryan McDonagh 112 +3 30.19 1019:34
24 Max Crozier 011 0 10.01 1116:42
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 022 +2 20.00 1116:42
72 Declan Carlile 000 0 30.04 0215:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 22418 .818 2.00 -2.00

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Bradly Nadeau L +1.07 +0.75 +0.19 0.00 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:06
77 Mark Jankowski L +1.06 +0.70 0.00 +0.38 -0.05 +0.01 +0.02 — 10:55
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C +0.78 +0.55 0.00 +0.35 -0.10 -0.02 0.00 — 10:06
50 Eric Robinson L +0.58 +0.75 +0.13 -0.43 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:50
11 Jordan Staal C +0.33 +0.70 0.00 -0.38 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 15:08
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:45
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.07 +0.70 +0.13 -0.88 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:22
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.02 +0.75 +0.34 -0.75 -0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 18:12
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D -0.20 +0.55 +0.02 -0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:11
28 William Carrier L -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:50
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L -0.43 +0.70 +0.05 -1.26 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:36
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.65 0.00 +0.02 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:28
53 Jackson Blake R -0.65 +0.75 +0.05 -1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:25
26 Sean Walker D -0.91 0.00 +0.07 -0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:05
52 Pyotr Kochetkov G -1.27 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.27 59:06
71 Taylor Hall L -1.31 0.00 +0.19 -1.62 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 15:52
6 Mike Reilly D -1.37 0.00 +0.01 -1.76 +0.30 0.00 +0.09 — 13:45
5 Jalen Chatfield D -1.60 0.00 +0.02 -1.65 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:59
20 Sebastian Aho C -1.91 0.00 +0.07 -1.91 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 21:19

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Ryan McDonagh D +3.24 +1.45 +0.12 +1.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:34
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +2.90 +1.25 0.00 +1.64 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:42
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.54 +1.50 +0.68 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:19
37 Yanni Gourde C +2.27 +0.55 +0.25 +1.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:13
17 Dominic James C +2.25 +1.40 0.00 +0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:44
90 J.J. Moser D +2.17 +0.70 +0.14 +1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:55
21 Brayden Point C +1.89 +0.75 +0.32 +0.78 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 18:25
86 Nikita Kucherov R +1.58 +0.55 +0.09 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:25
62 Jack Finley C +1.57 +0.75 +0.29 +0.85 -0.30 -0.02 0.00 — 8:19
29 Pontus Holmberg R +1.56 +0.70 +0.11 +0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:26
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.49 0.00 +0.18 +1.52 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 23:06
20 Nick Paul L +1.37 +0.55 +0.22 +0.39 +0.05 +0.05 +0.10 — 12:50
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.15 +0.75 +0.15 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 10:18
71 Anthony Cirelli C +1.11 0.00 +0.08 +0.93 0.00 +0.07 +0.03 — 22:30
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.73 0.00 +0.03 +0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:44
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:01
24 Max Crozier D +0.25 +0.55 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:42
67 Declan Carlile D +0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.03 -0.05 0.00 +0.10 — 15:22
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -2.00 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.00 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.