Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference

Current Standings

GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	GF	GA	DIFF	PTS %	Last 10
55	37	14	4	78	199	140	+59	70.9%

Playoff Probabilities

99.9%

Make Playoffs

87.8%

Win Division

64.0%

Win Conference

12.6%

Win Stanley Cup

Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026

Analysis

Summary

The Tampa Bay Lightning are not just playoff-bound, they are positioning themselves for a dominant spring, sitting at a 99.9% playoff probability and projecting to finish with 111.3 points. With an 88.1% chance to win the division and meaningful odds to win the conference and Stanley Cup, the focus has shifted from making the playoffs to securing seeding and home-ice advantage.

Record and Recent Performance

Tampa Bay’s 37-14-4 record through 55 games translates to 78 points and a league-elite 70.9% points percentage, backed by a massive +59 goal differential with 199 goals for and only 140 against. Their overall team strength rating of 71.7% is the best in the conference, and an 85.0% recent form indicator shows they are not coasting but accelerating. Notably, their play has traveled well, with a stronger away strength rating of 73.2% compared to 68.6% at home.

The Competition

At the top of the conference race, Tampa Bay is tied in points with the Carolina Hurricanes, but holds the edge with two games in hand and a higher projected finish of 111.3 points versus Carolina’s 108.3. Below them, the pack thins quickly, with Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Detroit clustered in the low 70s in points but all projecting around the 100-point mark, well behind Tampa’s pace. Given the Lightning’s strength advantage and remaining games in hand on most rivals, it would take a prolonged slump for them to fall out of the top seed conversation.

Remaining Schedule

The Lightning have 27 games left, split almost evenly with 14 at home and 13 on the road, and their schedule is rated as average in difficulty with opponent strength at 55.3%, only slightly above league average. A balanced schedule and an expected 33.3 remaining points suggest Tampa Bay will comfortably clear the projected playoff cutoff of 96.7 points. Even a modest regression from their current pace would still leave them well north of 105 points.

Outlook

Barring something extraordinary, Tampa Bay’s playoff path is about maintaining health, fine-tuning details, and locking down the division rather than worrying about qualification. With elite underlying numbers, strong recent form, and a manageable schedule, the Lightning look like a clear favorite for a top seed and a legitimate Stanley Cup threat once the postseason begins.

Generated Feb 08, 2026 5:11 PM — AI-generated, may contain inaccuracies

Required Win Percentage for Playoffs

24.4%

Coin Flip (50%)

Even odds

29.4%

Likely (75%)

Probable scenario

✓

Near-Certain (95%)

Safe scenario

Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.

Playoff Probability Breakdown

Understanding the factors that drive the 99.9% playoff probability

📊 Schedule Context

Remaining Games: 14 home, 13 away (52% home)

Schedule Balance: Balanced

Opponent Strength: 55.3% (vs 53.2% avg)

Schedule Difficulty: Average

🎯 Key Factors

Conference Position: 1 in Eastern

Projected Points: 111.3 pts

Expected Points (Remaining): 33.3 pts

Based on: 100,000 simulations

🏒 Playoff Picture

8th Place Cutoff: ~96.6 pts (projected)

Points Gap: 14.7 pts above cutoff ✓

Current Points: 78 pts

Analysis

✓ Nearly certain playoff position with comfortable cushion

Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.

Points Distribution vs. Cutline

Projected to finish with 108–115 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 99.9% of simulations.

88 129

Team points Playoff cutline (8th place)

Team Projection

Low (10th pctile): 105 pts

Median (50th): 111 pts

High (90th pctile): 117 pts

Playoff Cutline

Low (10th pctile): 94 pts

Median (50th): 96 pts

High (90th pctile): 98 pts

Playoff Race — Eastern Conference

#	Team	PTS	GP	Left	STR	L10	SOS	Proj PTS	Playoff %
1	TBL	78	55	27	71.7%	85.0%	55.3%	111.3	99.9%
2	CAR	78	57	25	68.2%	90.0%	55.0%	108.3	99.7%
3	DET	72	58	24	55.5%	60.0%	54.5%	99.9	82.8%
4	MTL	72	57	25	58.5%	65.0%	54.7%	101.2	87.5%
5	BUF	70	57	25	59.0%	65.0%	54.5%	99.3	81.8%
6	PIT	70	56	26	62.9%	80.0%	55.4%	101.2	91.3%
7	BOS	69	57	25	59.9%	75.0%	56.0%	97.7	70.1%
8	NYI	69	58	24	55.9%	60.0%	54.0%	96.6	63.9%

9	WSH	65	59	23	54.2%	55.0%	53.5%	91.2	20.4%
10	CBJ	65	56	26	60.7%	90.0%	54.6%	95.9	56.3%
11	OTT	63	57	25	55.5%	65.0%	53.8%	91.8	20.4%
12	TOR	63	57	25	49.8%	45.0%	54.3%	89.8	9.1%

Team Strength Metrics

Overall Strength	Home Strength	Away Strength	Pythagorean Win %	Recent Form
71.7%	68.6%	73.2%	66.9%	85.0%

Player Statistics

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	HIT	BLK	TOI
86	Nikita Kucherov	R	52	29	62	91	+30	24	22	19:54
59	Jake Guentzel	C	55	26	34	60	+13	23	30	20:28
38	Brandon Hagel	L	50	27	27	54	+29	39	28	19:43
43	Darren Raddysh	D	49	17	35	52	+17	50	49	22:32
71	Anthony Cirelli	C	49	15	20	35	+30	32	30	17:27
21	Brayden Point	C	37	11	19	30	+4	4	13	18:02
22	Oliver Bjorkstrand	R	55	10	17	27	-6	45	22	14:03
37	Yanni Gourde	C	55	7	15	22	+6	72	25	16:29
90	J.J. Moser	D	53	5	14	19	+39	40	72	22:10
29	Pontus Holmberg	R	48	9	8	17	+9	43	24	13:39
93	Gage Goncalves	C	51	6	11	17	+18	54	19	12:13
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	D	43	3	14	17	0	53	45	19:23
28	Zemgus Girgensons	C	48	7	7	14	+3	128	28	15:10
17	Dominic James	C	40	5	8	13	+4	55	13	12:07
77	Victor Hedman	D	21	0	13	13	+2	8	30	20:15
20	Nick Paul	L	34	6	6	12	-10	42	16	14:11
27	Ryan McDonagh	D	22	4	6	10	+3	9	37	19:54
24	Max Crozier	D	34	1	9	10	+7	38	31	15:59
81	Erik Cernak	D	36	1	6	7	+2	73	67	18:29
78	Emil Lilleberg	D	32	2	4	6	+9	53	33	17:20
37	Jack Finley	C	22	2	1	3	+2	37	5	8:24
46	Scott Sabourin	R	11	1	2	3	0	24	7	8:06
67	Declan Carlile	D	34	1	2	3	+7	36	25	14:27
42	Curtis Douglas	C	29	0	2	2	+1	32	7	5:58
11	Jakob Pelletier	L	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	11:53
52	Maxim Groshev	D	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:57
7	Simon Lundmark	D	1	0	0	0	+1	2	2	16:45

Recent Games (Last 10)

Date	Opponent	Score	Result
Feb 05	vs FLA	6 - 1	W
Feb 03	vs BUF	4 - 3	W (OT/SO)
Feb 01	vs BOS	6 - 5	W (OT/SO)
Jan 29	vs WPG	4 - 1	W
Jan 26	vs UTA	2 - 0	W
Jan 24	@ CBJ	8 - 5	L
Jan 23	@ CHI	1 - 2	W (OT/SO)
Jan 20	vs SJS	4 - 1	W
Jan 18	@ DAL	1 - 4	W
Jan 16	@ STL	3 - 2	L (OT/SO)

Upcoming Games

Date	Opponent	Location	Opp Strength	Exp Pts	Predicted Winner
Feb 25, 19:30	vs Toronto Maple Leafs	Home	49.8%	1.32	TBL (61%)
Feb 26, 19:00	@ Carolina Hurricanes	Away	68.2%	1.14	TBL (51%)
Feb 28, 19:00	vs Buffalo Sabres	Home	59.0%	1.23	TBL (56%)
Mar 03, 21:30	@ Minnesota Wild	Away	65.9%	1.16	TBL (52%)
Mar 05, 20:00	@ Winnipeg Jets	Away	45.7%	1.28	TBL (59%)
Mar 07, 19:00	@ Toronto Maple Leafs	Away	49.8%	1.26	TBL (58%)
Mar 08, 18:00	@ Buffalo Sabres	Away	59.0%	1.20	TBL (54%)
Mar 10, 19:00	vs Columbus Blue Jackets	Home	60.7%	1.23	TBL (56%)
Mar 12, 19:00	vs Detroit Red Wings	Home	55.5%	1.22	TBL (55%)
Mar 14, 19:00	vs Carolina Hurricanes	Home	68.2%	1.15	TBL (52%)
Total Expected (Next 10 games):				12.2 pts

Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.