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Winnipeg JetsWPG 3–4 Final/OT Utah MammothUTA

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 0120 3 26
Utah MammothUTA 2101 4 22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:20 UTA Lawson Crouse (9) Dylan Guenther (13), Barrett Hayton (4) · slap xG 0.18 0–1 ▶
9:31 UTA JJ Peterka (14) Clayton Keller (20), Nick Schmaltz (20) · tip-in xG 0.24 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
3:01 UTA Alexander Kerfoot (1) Sean Durzi (7), Mikhail Sergachev (20) · slap xG 0.14 0–3 ▶
11:18 WPG Kyle Connor (16)PP Mark Scheifele (25), Gabriel Vilardi (15) · slap xG 0.09 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
15:23 WPG Kyle Connor (17) Josh Morrissey (24), Mark Scheifele (26) · slap xG 0.03 2–3 ▶
15:48 WPG Morgan Barron (7) Tanner Pearson (2) · snap xG 0.21 3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:13 UTA Clayton Keller (12) Dylan Guenther (14), Mikhail Sergachev (21) · snap xG 0.13 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 31%Deserve to win69% UTA
WPGUTA
2.08Expected goals3.14
3Goals (no shootout)4
1.76Expected goals, 5 on 51.83
55Shot attempts52
40Unblocked attempts35
26Shots on goal22

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Dylan Guenther: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:54) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:39) Lawson Crouse: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:46) Josh Morrissey: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:46) Dylan Samberg: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:58) Dylan Guenther: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:17) Kyle Connor: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:41) Logan Stanley: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:55) Nate Schmidt: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:57) Dylan Guenther: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 15:29) Logan Stanley: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:00) Daniil But: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:22) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:56) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 18:59) Sean Durzi: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:35) Kyle Connor: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:44) Neal Pionk: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:47) Neal Pionk: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:52) Daniil But: between-legs, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:40) Jack McBain: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:08) Michael Carcone: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:25) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 185 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:23) Mark Scheifele: deflected, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:42) Nick Schmaltz: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:01) Nick DeSimone: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:26) Colin Miller: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:44) Logan Stanley: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:03) Dylan Samberg: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:31) Gustav Nyquist: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:46) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:51) Adam Lowry: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:33) Alex Iafallo: snap, 149 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:00) Clayton Keller: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:30) Neal Pionk: snap, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:08) Josh Morrissey: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:43) Neal Pionk: wrist, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:11) Jack McBain: slap, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:22) Dylan Guenther: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:08) Dylan Guenther: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:20) Clayton Keller: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:25) Sean Durzi: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:49) Nino Niederreiter: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:22) Nino Niederreiter: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 19:26) Josh Morrissey: slap, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:56) Neal Pionk: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:45) Gustav Nyquist: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:47) Neal Pionk: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:51) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:16) Colin Miller: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:21) Neal Pionk: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:29) Colin Miller: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:34) Colin Miller: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:45) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:32) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:33) Dylan Guenther: slap, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 8:35) Daniil But: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:54) Barrett Hayton: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:55) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:52) Michael Carcone: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:46) Jonathan Toews: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:05) Colin Miller: snap, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:19) Kyle Connor: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:04) Logan Stanley: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:39) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:03) Nick DeSimone: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:00) Lawson Crouse: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 17:06) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:21) Dylan Samberg: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:59) Lawson Crouse: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:20) JJ Peterka: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 9:31) Alexander Kerfoot: GOAL, slap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 3:01) Kyle Connor: GOAL, slap, 41 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:18) Kyle Connor: GOAL, slap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:23) Morgan Barron: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 15:48) Clayton Keller: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 0:13)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 022 0 40.09 1123:48
81 Kyle Connor 202 0 80.43 0023:03
13 Gabriel Vilardi 011 0 10.22 0018:33
9 Alex Iafallo 000 -1 10.00 5114:26
36 Morgan Barron 101 0 10.21 7014:24
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 -2 30.11 0013:23
17 Adam Lowry 000 -1 20.04 1013:09
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 00.00 0012:44
70 Tanner Pearson 011 +1 00.00 1012:34
19 Jonathan Toews 000 -1 10.03 0111:52
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 -1 20.37 0011:12
91 Cole Perfetti 000 0 00.00 1009:44
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 011 0 80.14 1323:55
4 Neal Pionk 000 -1 80.12 4322:37
54 Dylan Samberg 000 0 30.12 1420:50
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 +1 10.00 2119:16
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 50.11 2116:21
6 Colin Miller 000 -2 70.08 1012:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 22418 .818 3.14 -0.86

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Clayton Keller 112 +1 40.30 0018:31
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 0 60.45 0017:30
67 Lawson Crouse 101 0 30.41 5017:10
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 20.06 0116:57
10 JJ Peterka 101 +1 10.24 0016:55
11 Dylan Guenther 022 +2 80.86 0016:19
27 Barrett Hayton 011 +1 30.04 1114:12
14 Alexander Kerfoot 101 0 10.14 0313:49
22 Jack McBain 000 -1 40.30 3113:41
53 Michael Carcone 000 0 20.07 1012:45
50 Daniil But 000 0 30.15 0011:45
38 Liam O'Brien 000 +1 10.00 2011:29
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 022 +1 40.01 1325:19
5 Sean Durzi 011 0 20.06 1321:43
28 Ian Cole 000 0 30.00 2018:30
6 John Marino 000 0 10.00 0018:06
88 Nate Schmidt 000 +1 20.03 0017:38
57 Nick DeSimone 000 +1 20.02 0113:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 26323 .885 2.08 -0.92

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Kyle Connor L +1.82 +1.50 +0.28 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:03
55 Mark Scheifele C +1.69 +1.25 +0.06 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:48
44 Josh Morrissey D +1.17 +0.70 +0.09 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 23:55
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +1.08 +0.55 +0.15 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:33
36 Morgan Barron C +0.97 +0.75 +0.14 -0.01 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 14:24
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.85 +0.70 0.00 +0.45 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 12:34
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:16
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.58 0.00 +0.08 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.22 — 20:50
4 Neal Pionk D +0.52 0.00 +0.08 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:37
62 Nino Niederreiter R +0.34 0.00 +0.24 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:12
17 Adam Lowry C +0.18 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 +0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 13:09
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 9:44
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.23 0.00 +0.02 -0.34 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 11:52
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:26
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:44
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.65 0.00 +0.07 -0.69 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:23
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -0.86 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.86 60:13
64 Logan Stanley D -0.86 0.00 +0.07 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 16:21
6 Colin Miller D -1.05 0.00 +0.05 -1.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:48

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +2.47 +1.40 +0.56 +0.49 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 16:19
9 Clayton Keller R +1.80 +1.45 +0.20 +0.18 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:31
67 Lawson Crouse L +1.60 +0.75 +0.27 +0.45 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:10
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.42 +1.10 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 25:19
27 Barrett Hayton C +1.35 +0.55 +0.03 +0.63 0.00 +0.07 +0.07 — 14:12
77 JJ Peterka R +1.23 +0.75 +0.15 +0.47 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:55
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.21 +0.55 +0.30 +0.28 +0.15 -0.04 -0.02 — 17:30
57 Nick DeSimone D +0.49 0.00 +0.01 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 13:29
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +0.47 +0.75 +0.09 -0.51 0.00 -0.01 +0.15 — 13:49
50 Sean Durzi D +0.38 +0.70 +0.04 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:43
19 Daniil But L +0.11 0.00 +0.10 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:45
28 Ian Cole D +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:30
6 John Marino D +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:06
53 Michael Carcone L +0.05 0.00 +0.05 -0.15 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:45
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.06 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:38
22 Jack McBain C -0.30 0.00 +0.20 -0.50 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 13:41
38 Liam O'Brien C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:29
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.38 0.00 +0.04 -0.44 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:57
70 Karel Vejmelka G -0.92 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.92 60:13

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.