hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 1–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Monday, December 22, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 010 1 24
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 211 4 17

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:21 TBL Pontus Holmberg (4) Darren Raddysh (18), Zemgus Girgensons (2) · tip-in xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
9:12 TBL Darren Raddysh (8)PP Nikita Kucherov (31), Jake Guentzel (20) · slap xG 0.08 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
6:43 STL Justin Faulk (10) Tyler Tucker (5), Otto Stenberg (3) · slap xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
8:01 TBL Anthony Cirelli (10) Darren Raddysh (19) · tip-in xG 0.07 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
5:36 TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (6)PP Jake Guentzel (21), Nikita Kucherov (32) · wrist xG 0.12 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 36%Deserve to win64% TBL
STLTBL
1.93Expected goals2.64
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.67Expected goals, 5 on 51.80
51Shot attempts48
35Unblocked attempts31
24Shots on goal17

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:03) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:30) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:07) Justin Faulk: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:18) Declan Carlile: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:13) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:44) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:46) Brayden Schenn: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:51) Jake Neighbours: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:57) Pius Suter: wrist, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:41) Brayden Point: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 8:10) Darren Raddysh: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:42) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:52) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:15) Pius Suter: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:09) Oskar Sundqvist: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:01) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:41) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:42) Brayden Point: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:11) Oskar Sundqvist: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:57) Justin Faulk: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:07) Justin Faulk: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:09) Jake Guentzel: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 0:41) Pavel Buchnevich: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:02) Pavel Buchnevich: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:07) J.J. Moser: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:40) Max Crozier: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:59) Dominic James: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:00) Max Crozier: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:11) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:46) Darren Raddysh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:05) Anthony Cirelli: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:30) Zemgus Girgensons: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:31) Mathieu Joseph: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:38) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 152 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:10) Tyler Tucker: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:51) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:31) Jake Guentzel: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 12:35) Mathieu Joseph: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:59) Jake Neighbours: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:06) Jake Neighbours: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:07) Cam Fowler: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:40) Brayden Point: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:23) Justin Faulk: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:32) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 0:38) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:32) Tyler Tucker: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:39) Philip Broberg: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:45) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:04) Oskar Sundqvist: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:15) Robby Fabbri: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:53) Declan Carlile: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:31) Cam Fowler: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:41) Philip Broberg: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:36) Philip Broberg: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:37) Jonatan Berggren: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:26) Robby Fabbri: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:27) Philip Broberg: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:33) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 15:13) Max Crozier: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:08) Nick Paul: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:46) Pontus Holmberg: GOAL, tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:21) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 43 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:12) Justin Faulk: GOAL, slap, 60 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:43) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:01) Oliver Bjorkstrand: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:36)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 000 -2 10.00 0117:43
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -2 20.18 0117:19
63 Jake Neighbours 000 +1 30.21 6017:03
10 Brayden Schenn 000 +1 20.05 3016:09
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -2 20.06 3014:57
28 Otto Stenberg 011 +1 10.00 4114:22
21 Robby Fabbri 000 0 30.15 0014:05
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 40.24 0013:34
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 0 20.14 3013:03
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 00.00 3312:55
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 30.27 2112:29
22 Pius Suter 000 0 20.03 0112:23
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 101 +1 90.28 0122:52
6 Philip Broberg 000 0 50.18 0122:38
55 Colton Parayko 000 0 00.00 0321:19
17 Cam Fowler 000 -2 40.08 0020:43
75 Tyler Tucker 011 +1 70.05 2217:30
23 Logan Mailloux 000 -2 10.00 1112:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 17413 .765 2.64 -1.36

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 022 -1 40.56 0020:31
21 Brayden Point 000 0 40.37 0119:10
86 Nikita Kucherov 022 0 50.09 0016:36
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 101 -1 20.12 0016:24
71 Anthony Cirelli 101 +2 50.41 0115:59
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 00.00 2115:42
20 Nick Paul 000 -1 10.11 0014:02
17 Dominic James 000 0 20.03 1213:46
28 Zemgus Girgensons 011 +2 10.10 2113:22
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 20.04 0213:16
29 Pontus Holmberg 101 +2 40.19 0012:32
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 0011:01
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 123 +2 50.24 1022:43
90 J.J. Moser 000 +2 20.01 1121:35
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 -1 20.04 0120:55
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 -1 00.00 0320:16
24 Max Crozier 000 0 40.05 1014:09
72 Declan Carlile 000 0 50.26 2214:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 24123 .958 1.93 +0.93

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Justin Faulk D +0.70 +0.75 +0.18 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:52
22 Pius Suter C +0.69 0.00 +0.02 +0.46 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:23
55 Colton Parayko D +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:19
6 Philip Broberg D +0.59 0.00 +0.12 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:38
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.47 0.00 +0.13 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:03
9 Robby Fabbri C +0.45 0.00 +0.10 +0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
28 Otto Stenberg C +0.22 +0.55 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:22
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.21 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 16:09
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 12:55
70 Oskar Sundqvist C +0.11 0.00 +0.17 -0.10 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 12:29
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.08 +0.70 +0.03 -0.54 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 17:30
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.04 0.00 +0.16 -0.14 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 13:34
71 Mathieu Joseph R -0.04 0.00 +0.09 -0.26 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:03
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.17 0.00 +0.12 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:19
17 Cam Fowler D -0.28 0.00 +0.05 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:43
18 Robert Thomas C -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.32 -0.15 +0.01 +0.07 — 17:43
23 Logan Mailloux D -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.39 -0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 12:27
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.69 0.00 +0.04 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:57
50 Jordan Binnington G -1.36 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.36 60:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
43 Darren Raddysh D +2.81 +2.15 +0.16 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:43
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.25 +1.25 +0.36 +0.56 +0.15 -0.03 -0.04 — 20:31
71 Anthony Cirelli C +1.55 +0.75 +0.27 +0.48 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:59
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +1.41 +0.75 +0.07 +0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:24
29 Pontus Holmberg R +1.37 +0.75 +0.13 +0.35 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:32
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.93 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.93 60:00
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.83 +0.55 +0.07 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:22
20 Nick Paul L +0.80 0.00 +0.07 +0.63 +0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 14:02
90 J.J. Moser D +0.80 0.00 +0.01 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:35
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.76 +1.25 +0.06 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:36
67 Declan Carlile D +0.35 0.00 +0.17 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 14:01
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.24 0.00 +0.03 -0.06 +0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 13:16
17 Dominic James C +0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 13:46
24 Max Crozier D -0.07 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:09
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:55
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:16
21 Brayden Point C -0.28 0.00 +0.24 -0.53 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 19:10
62 Jack Finley C -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.27 -0.15 +0.06 -0.04 — 11:01
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:42

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.