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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 3–6 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 111 3 32
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 213 6 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:07 TOR William Nylander (12) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.34 0–1 ▶
9:51 PIT Bryan Rust (13) Sidney Crosby (18), Kris Letang (16) · wrist xG 0.17 1–1 ▶
13:34 TOR Matias Maccelli (5) William Nylander (26), Philippe Myers (2) · wrist xG 0.01 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
7:38 TOR Steven Lorentz (4) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.15 1–3 ▶
11:43 PIT Rutger McGroarty (2) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.05 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
1:00 PIT Anthony Mantha (11) Parker Wotherspoon (9), Justin Brazeau (7) · slap xG 0.04 3–3 ▶
11:35 TOR Max Domi (4) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17), William Nylander (27) · wrist xG 0.15 3–4 ▶
17:57 TOR Bobby McMann (10)EN Max Domi (10) · wrist xG 0.92 3–5 ▶
18:36 TOR William Nylander (13)EN John Tavares (18), Matthew Knies (23) · wrist xG 0.87 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 30%Deserve to win70% TOR
PITTOR
2.05Expected goals4.96
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.53Expected goals, 5 on 52.40
57Shot attempts55
40Unblocked attempts46
32Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:50 TOR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.15–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:50 to 11:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–1
3rd Period
17:37 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 4–3
With 2:23 left; TOR scored at 17:57 of the 3rd (3–5)

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Max Domi: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 0:40) Jack St. Ivany: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:57) Ryan Shea: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:06) Bryan Rust: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:21) Philippe Myers: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:57) Troy Stecher: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:49) Bobby McMann: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:25) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:39) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 7:24) Noel Acciari: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:48) Bobby McMann: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:32) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:12) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:15) Auston Matthews: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:37) Tommy Novak: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:39) Ryan Shea: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:44) Jake McCabe: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:12) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:25) Troy Stecher: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:54) Kris Letang: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:19) Erik Karlsson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:25) Anthony Mantha: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:44) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:51) Auston Matthews: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:17) Tommy Novak: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 1:50) Connor Dewar: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:40) Philippe Myers: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:01) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:07) John Tavares: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 5:39) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 5:41) Chris Tanev: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:08) John Tavares: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:50) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 7:36) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:37) Max Domi: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:48) Philippe Myers: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:58) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:55) Kevin Hayes: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:49) Nicolas Roy: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:07) Nick Robertson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:08) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:04) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:36) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:26) Anthony Mantha: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:00) Rutger McGroarty: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:27) Rutger McGroarty: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:45) Bobby McMann: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:11) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:34) Jake McCabe: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:50) Kris Letang: wrist, 154 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:27) Rickard Rakell: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 19:52) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:32) Bryan Rust: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:33) Max Domi: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 2:53) Jake McCabe: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:57) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:02) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:13) William Nylander: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:46) Philippe Myers: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:17) Tommy Novak: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:02) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:08) Jack St. Ivany: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:21) Scott Laughton: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:01) John Tavares: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:30) William Nylander: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 9:54) John Tavares: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:16) William Nylander: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:13) Jake McCabe: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:56) Ryan Shea: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:07) William Nylander: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:14) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:51) Erik Karlsson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:28) Auston Matthews: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:28) Jack St. Ivany: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:06) Ben Kindel: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:12) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:42) Rickard Rakell: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:44) William Nylander: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 9:07) Bryan Rust: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 9:51) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:34) Steven Lorentz: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:38) Rutger McGroarty: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:43) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:00) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:35) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 17:57) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.87 (P3 18:36)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 101 -3 50.31 0019:05
87 Sidney Crosby 011 -2 30.12 1018:21
67 Rickard Rakell 000 -3 40.32 0017:18
18 Tommy Novak 000 +1 40.28 0014:53
39 Anthony Mantha 101 -1 50.13 2014:52
19 Connor Dewar 000 -1 20.01 0014:41
52 Noel Acciari 000 -1 10.09 1013:28
16 Justin Brazeau 011 +1 50.21 2013:09
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 10.03 2112:49
41 Ville Koivunen 000 0 00.00 0012:18
2 Rutger McGroarty 101 0 30.14 1012:16
13 Kevin Hayes 000 -1 10.03 2011:54
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 -4 80.15 1022:42
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 -2 10.00 1222:04
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 10.00 0120:24
58 Kris Letang 011 -2 30.01 2220:11
6 Ryan Shea 000 +1 50.04 0117:27
6 Jack St. Ivany 000 +1 50.18 1017:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 29425 .862 3.17 -0.83

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 0 40.10 0019:17
91 John Tavares 011 +2 40.45 0118:26
88 William Nylander 224 +2 71.57 0018:21
74 Bobby McMann 101 +1 61.18 1016:56
11 Max Domi 112 +1 40.44 2016:56
63 Matias Maccelli 101 +1 30.19 0016:10
18 Steven Lorentz 101 +1 30.50 1112:53
21 Scott Laughton 000 +1 20.03 2112:42
81 Dakota Joshua 000 +1 00.00 4212:33
89 Matthew Knies 011 0 00.00 2112:07
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 10.05 1110:41
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 10.12 1009:50
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 +5 50.13 0224:26
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 20.02 0122:36
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +1 30.06 3021:10
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 40.03 0017:37
8 Chris Tanev 000 +1 10.03 0217:23
51 Philippe Myers 011 0 50.06 2215:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 32329 .906 2.05 -0.95

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
2 Rutger McGroarty R +1.04 +0.75 +0.09 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:16
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.97 +0.75 +0.08 +0.16 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:52
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.96 +0.55 +0.13 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 13:09
5 Ryan Shea D +0.60 0.00 +0.03 +0.37 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:27
3 Jack St. Ivany D +0.35 0.00 +0.12 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:01
58 Kris Letang D +0.26 +0.55 +0.01 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:11
18 Tommy Novak C +0.26 0.00 +0.18 +0.12 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 14:53
17 Bryan Rust R +0.16 +0.75 +0.20 -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:05
87 Sidney Crosby C +0.12 +0.70 +0.08 -0.64 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 — 18:21
41 Ville Koivunen R -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:18
28 Parker Wotherspoon D -0.12 +0.70 0.00 -0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:04
81 Ben Kindel C -0.19 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 -0.15 -0.06 +0.07 — 12:49
13 Kevin Hayes R -0.36 0.00 +0.02 -0.37 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:54
55 Noel Acciari C -0.38 0.00 +0.06 -0.42 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:28
77 Brett Kulak D -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:24
67 Rickard Rakell R -0.44 0.00 +0.21 -0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:18
19 Connor Dewar C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:41
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.83 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.83 59:07
65 Erik Karlsson D -0.88 0.00 +0.10 -0.83 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:42

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 William Nylander R +4.02 +2.75 +1.02 +0.07 +0.15 -0.01 +0.04 — 18:21
11 Max Domi C +2.33 +1.45 +0.29 +0.60 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:56
22 Jake McCabe D +1.92 0.00 +0.09 +1.75 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:26
74 Bobby McMann C +1.74 +0.75 +0.77 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:56
18 Steven Lorentz C +1.66 +0.75 +0.32 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 12:53
91 John Tavares C +1.58 +0.70 +0.29 +0.30 +0.15 +0.08 +0.05 — 18:26
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.08 +0.75 +0.12 +0.40 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 16:10
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.82 +0.70 +0.04 +0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 21:10
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:33
24 Scott Laughton C +0.52 0.00 +0.02 +0.49 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 12:42
8 Chris Tanev D +0.49 0.00 +0.02 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:23
23 Matthew Knies L +0.46 +0.55 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 12:07
51 Philippe Myers D +0.35 +0.55 +0.04 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 15:11
34 Auston Matthews C +0.30 0.00 +0.06 +0.22 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:17
28 Troy Stecher D +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:37
55 Nicolas Roy C 0.00 0.00 +0.08 -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 9:50
89 Nick Robertson L -0.15 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:41
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:36
60 Joseph Woll G -0.95 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.95 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.