| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 25 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:23 | James van Riemsdyk (9) Michael Rasmussen (6), Simon Edvinsson (9) · wrist xG 0.18 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 10:47 | Roope Hintz (12)PP Mikko Rantanen (36), Jason Robertson (22) · snap xG 0.18 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 19:16 | Jamie Benn (7) Matt Duchene (3), Justin Hryckowian (7) · snap xG 0.20 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 3:02 | Emmitt Finnie (9)PP Lucas Raymond (28), Moritz Seider (22) · wrist xG 0.06 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 11:18 | Wyatt Johnston (20)PP Miro Heiskanen (27), Mikko Rantanen (37) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 15:57 | Dylan Larkin (19)PP James van Riemsdyk (2), Lucas Raymond (29) · wrist xG 0.14 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 0:34 | Dylan Larkin (20) Moritz Seider (23), Lucas Raymond (30) · snap xG 0.17 | 3–4 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| DAL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.86 | Expected goals | 2.53 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 2.81 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.14 |
| 60 | Shot attempts | 50 |
| 43 | Unblocked attempts | 38 |
| 22 | Shots on goal | 25 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00 | DAL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.36–0.30
In xG over 10 minutes, 11:00 of the 1st to 1:00 of the 2nd; neither team scored |
| 10:17 | DET | Goalie | Goalie · Gibson +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.04 xG, 11 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 21 | Jason Robertson | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 12 | 0.81 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 |
| 53 | Wyatt Johnston | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.51 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 |
| 96 | Mikko Rantanen | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 |
| 24 | Roope Hintz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 |
| 22 | Mavrik Bourque | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.93 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 |
| 95 | Matt Duchene | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 |
| 18 | Sam Steel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:57 |
| 12 | Radek Faksa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 4 | 0 | 12:56 |
| 10 | Oskar Bäck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 12:45 |
| 49 | Justin Hryckowian | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 0 | 11:26 |
| 14 | Jamie Benn | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.20 | 2 | 0 | 10:45 |
| 73 | Adam Erne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 6 | 1 | 10:15 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 4 | Miro Heiskanen | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 0.12 | 1 | 1 | 27:44 |
| 55 | Thomas Harley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.32 | 1 | 0 | 22:10 |
| 23 | Esa Lindell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 21:30 |
| 5 | Nils Lundkvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 16:41 |
| 46 | Ilya Lyubushkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 14:30 |
| 36 | Alexander Petrovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 12:17 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | 25 | 4 | 21 | .840 | 2.53 | -1.47 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 71 | Dylan Larkin | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 8 | 0.62 | 2 | 2 | 20:47 |
| 93 | Alex DeBrincat | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 9 | 0.58 | 1 | 0 | 18:31 |
| 23 | Lucas Raymond | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 17:42 |
| 18 | Andrew Copp | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 |
| 58 | Emmitt Finnie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.61 | 0 | 1 | 16:13 |
| 37 | J.T. Compher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 14:20 |
| 43 | John Leonard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 13:33 |
| 22 | Mason Appleton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 13:26 |
| 27 | Michael Rasmussen | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:19 |
| 92 | Marco Kasper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 |
| 21 | James van Riemsdyk | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3 | 10:12 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 53 | Moritz Seider | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.11 | 2 | 0 | 22:36 |
| 8 | Ben Chiarot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 3 | 22:31 |
| 77 | Simon Edvinsson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 1 | 21:50 |
| 25 | Jacob Bernard-Docker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 4 | 21:00 |
| 20 | Albert Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 16:58 |
| 44 | Axel Sandin-Pellikka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | 22 | 3 | 19 | .864 | 3.86 | +0.86 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 Wyatt Johnston C | +2.19 | +0.75 | +0.33 | +1.03 | +0.15 | -0.04 | -0.04 | — | 20:07 |
| 22 Mavrik Bourque C | +2.18 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +1.60 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:32 |
| 4 Miro Heiskanen D | +1.87 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 27:44 |
| 95 Matt Duchene C | +1.80 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +1.14 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 15:18 |
| 21 Jason Robertson L | +1.68 | +0.55 | +0.53 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 21:56 |
| 24 Roope Hintz C | +1.65 | +0.75 | +0.31 | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | — | 18:46 |
| 55 Thomas Harley D | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 22:10 |
| 96 Mikko Rantanen R | +1.25 | +1.25 | +0.16 | -0.01 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 20:01 |
| 14 Jamie Benn L | +1.22 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.35 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 10:45 |
| 49 Justin Hryckowian C | +0.99 | +0.55 | +0.07 | +0.53 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:26 |
| 5 Nils Lundkvist D | +0.79 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.61 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 16:41 |
| 28 Alexander Petrovic D | +0.62 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:17 |
| 23 Esa Lindell D | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 21:30 |
| 46 Ilya Lyubushkin D | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:30 |
| 18 Sam Steel C | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.15 | +0.06 | 0.00 | — | 12:57 |
| 10 Oskar Bäck C | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | +0.15 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 12:45 |
| 73 Adam Erne L | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:15 |
| 12 Radek Faksa C | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | — | 12:56 |
| 1 Casey DeSmith G | -1.62 | 0.00 | — | — | -0.15 | — | — | -1.47 | 59:50 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Lucas Raymond L | +1.69 | +1.80 | +0.10 | -0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:42 |
| 21 James van Riemsdyk L | +1.38 | +1.45 | +0.12 | -0.19 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 10:12 |
| 77 Simon Edvinsson D | +1.02 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.26 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 21:50 |
| 71 Dylan Larkin C | +0.89 | +1.50 | +0.40 | -0.94 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 20:47 |
| 36 John Gibson G | +0.86 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.86 | 60:34 |
| 53 Moritz Seider D | +0.74 | +1.25 | +0.07 | -0.43 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 22:36 |
| 58 Emmitt Finnie C | +0.32 | +0.75 | +0.40 | -1.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:13 |
| 29 Nate Danielson C | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 10:50 |
| 27 Michael Rasmussen C | +0.18 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:19 |
| 93 Alex DeBrincat R | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.37 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:31 |
| 92 Marco Kasper C | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | — | 11:10 |
| 43 John Leonard L | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:33 |
| 18 Andrew Copp C | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 17:11 |
| 22 Mason Appleton C | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:26 |
| 44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | -0.54 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.40 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:34 |
| 20 Albert Johansson D | -0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:58 |
| 37 J.T. Compher L | -0.77 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.84 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 14:20 |
| 8 Ben Chiarot D | -1.22 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 22:31 |
| 25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D | -1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.70 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.16 | — | 21:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.