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Buffalo SabresBUF 3–2 Final/OT Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 1101 3 25
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 1100 2 26

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
15:22 BUF Bowen Byram (7) Jordan Greenway (3), Josh Dunne (3) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–0 ▶
17:13 OTT Ridly Greig (3) Claude Giroux (18) · backhand xG 0.11 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:11 BUF Noah Ostlund (6) Bowen Byram (9), Alex Tuch (19) · tip-in xG 0.08 2–1 ▶
9:27 OTT Tim Stützle (18)PP Drake Batherson (22), Dylan Cozens (17) · wrist xG 0.14 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
0:31 BUF Bowen Byram (8) Ryan McLeod (14), Mattias Samuelsson (10) · snap xG 0.08 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 22%Deserve to win78% OTT
BUFOTT
1.54Expected goals3.12
3Goals (no shootout)2
0.89Expected goals, 5 on 52.32
41Shot attempts63
32Unblocked attempts45
25Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:10 OTT No shift No shift · MacDermid, 30:50 on the bench
No shift after 2:36 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (2:40) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Ridly Greig: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:50) Zach Benson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:28) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:37) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:43) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:28) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:29) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:47) Tage Thompson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:04) Drake Batherson: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:44) Michael Kesselring: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:51) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:59) David Perron: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:18) Nikolas Matinpalo: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:21) Josh Dunne: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:42) Claude Giroux: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:37) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:41) Nikolas Matinpalo: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:51) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:27) Tage Thompson: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:54) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:33) Zach Benson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:46) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:55) David Perron: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:08) Alex Tuch: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:19) Mattias Samuelsson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:41) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:47) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:44) Owen Power: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:02) Tage Thompson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:12) Josh Norris: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:16) Josh Norris: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:55) Jack Quinn: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:01) Tim Stützle: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:12) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:27) Alex Tuch: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:15) Jack Quinn: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:25) Alex Tuch: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:34) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:28) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:31) Drake Batherson: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:27) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:26) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:24) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:36) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:01) Michael Amadio: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:06) Michael Amadio: wrist, 108 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:26) Josh Dunne: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:51) Nikolas Matinpalo: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:00) Jordan Spence: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:06) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:28) Jordan Spence: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:35) Drake Batherson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:16) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:15) Dylan Cozens: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:34) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:32) Claude Giroux: wrist, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:39) Tim Stützle: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:10) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:29) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:03) Jordan Spence: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:22) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:13) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:48) Drake Batherson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:57) Josh Doan: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:04) Tim Stützle: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:52) Drake Batherson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:41) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:06) Drake Batherson: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:53) Drake Batherson: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 17:55) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 18:47) Jake Sanderson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:27) Drake Batherson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:29) Bowen Byram: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:22) Ridly Greig: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:13) Noah Ostlund: GOAL, tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:11) Tim Stützle: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:27) Bowen Byram: GOAL, snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 011 +2 30.22 1218:01
72 Tage Thompson 000 -1 40.08 0216:47
71 Ryan McLeod 011 +1 10.01 0016:36
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 +1 10.09 3216:11
86 Noah Ostlund 101 +1 20.12 0015:01
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -1 10.00 3114:00
9 Josh Norris 000 +1 20.10 0014:00
12 Jordan Greenway 011 +1 40.13 1013:36
91 Josh Doan 000 -1 10.05 0213:28
44 Josh Dunne 011 +1 20.05 2013:13
6 Zach Benson 000 0 20.13 0012:24
22 Jack Quinn 000 0 30.17 1112:21
Defense
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 0 30.08 1126:39
25 Owen Power 000 0 20.13 2125:10
24 Bowen Byram 213 +3 20.14 0124:18
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 -1 20.03 0122:48
7 Michael Kesselring 000 0 40.03 0212:39
73 Zach Metsa 000 +2 20.00 1008:38
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 26224 .923 3.12 +1.12

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 101 -2 40.25 2121:41
19 Drake Batherson 011 0 80.88 0020:42
24 Dylan Cozens 011 0 30.23 1119:32
8 Brady Tkachuk 000 -2 70.73 2018:42
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 -1 70.27 2118:03
22 Michael Amadio 000 +1 20.03 0016:20
28 Claude Giroux 011 +1 20.04 1016:10
16 David Perron 000 0 20.24 1015:21
71 Ridly Greig 101 +1 40.12 1115:11
21 Nick Cousins 000 -1 00.00 2008:27
34 Stephen Halliday 000 -1 00.00 3007:46
23 Kurtis MacDermid 000 -1 00.00 0002:40
Defense
72 Thomas Chabot 000 -2 70.19 1323:23
85 Jake Sanderson 000 0 60.06 0122:25
10 Jordan Spence 000 -2 50.03 1019:33
2 Artem Zub 000 0 10.00 2119:04
4 Nick Jensen 000 0 10.00 0017:47
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 40.04 0015:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 25322 .880 1.54 -1.46

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
4 Bowen Byram D +2.27 +2.20 +0.09 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 24:18
12 Jordan Greenway L +1.28 +0.70 +0.08 +0.50 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 13:36
44 Josh Dunne C +1.24 +0.55 +0.03 +0.51 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:13
34 Alex Lyon G +1.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.12 60:31
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.71 0.00 +0.06 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:11
73 Zach Metsa D +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 8:38
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.21 +0.75 +0.08 -0.57 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:01
89 Alex Tuch R +0.10 +0.55 +0.14 -0.52 -0.15 -0.02 +0.10 — 18:01
71 Ryan McLeod C -0.21 +0.70 0.00 -0.90 0.00 -0.04 +0.02 — 16:36
9 Josh Norris C -0.25 0.00 +0.06 -0.33 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:00
26 Rasmus Dahlin D -0.52 0.00 +0.02 -0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:48
22 Jack Quinn R -0.52 0.00 +0.11 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:21
72 Tage Thompson C -0.56 0.00 +0.05 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:47
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.56 0.00 +0.02 -0.51 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 12:39
23 Mattias Samuelsson D -0.62 +0.55 +0.05 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:39
25 Owen Power D -0.63 0.00 +0.09 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:10
6 Zach Benson L -0.65 0.00 +0.08 -0.58 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:24
91 Josh Doan R -0.66 0.00 +0.03 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:28
19 Peyton Krebs C -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:00

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Drake Batherson R +2.71 +0.70 +0.57 +1.25 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 20:42
24 Dylan Cozens C +1.90 +0.55 +0.15 +1.10 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 19:32
57 David Perron L +1.62 0.00 +0.16 +1.31 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:21
18 Tim Stützle C +1.36 +0.75 +0.16 +0.41 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 — 21:41
71 Ridly Greig C +1.17 +0.75 +0.08 +0.32 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 15:11
28 Claude Giroux R +1.06 +0.70 +0.03 +0.32 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 16:10
2 Artem Zub D +0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:04
85 Jake Sanderson D +0.75 0.00 +0.04 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 22:25
7 Brady Tkachuk L +0.73 0.00 +0.47 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:42
3 Nick Jensen D +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:47
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.51 0.00 +0.18 +0.13 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:03
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.44 0.00 +0.03 +0.57 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:17
72 Thomas Chabot D +0.40 0.00 +0.13 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 23:23
22 Michael Amadio R +0.32 0.00 +0.02 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:20
10 Jordan Spence D +0.02 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:33
21 Nick Cousins C -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 8:27
23 Kurtis MacDermid L -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 2:40
83 Stephen Halliday C -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:46
35 Linus Ullmark G -1.46 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.46 60:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.