Ottawa SenatorsOTT 5–7 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	1	1	3	5	31
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	2	3	2	7	33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:40	TOR	William Nylander (14)PP Auston Matthews (10), Matias Maccelli (7) · backhand xG 0.25	0–1 ▶
14:42	TOR	Matthew Knies (8)PP Max Domi (11), Nick Robertson (9) · snap xG 0.17	0–2 ▶
17:50	OTT	Nick Cousins (6) Jordan Spence (11), Stephen Halliday (4) · wrist xG 0.46	1–2 ▶
2nd Period
0:18	OTT	Ridly Greig (4) Claude Giroux (19) · wrist xG 0.87	2–2 ▶
3:28	TOR	Bobby McMann (11) Auston Matthews (11), Max Domi (12) · wrist xG 0.31	2–3 ▶
7:28	TOR	Auston Matthews (15) Max Domi (13), Jake McCabe (13) · wrist xG 0.24	2–4 ▶
8:32	TOR	Nick Robertson (7) Matthew Knies (24), Nicolas Roy (9) · wrist xG 0.22	2–5 ▶
3rd Period
0:14	OTT	Drake Batherson (15) Dylan Cozens (18), Brady Tkachuk (11) · wrist xG 0.08	3–5 ▶
5:07	OTT	Tim Stützle (19) Fabian Zetterlund (8) · wrist xG 0.12	4–5 ▶
5:53	TOR	Matthew Knies (9) Matias Maccelli (8), Morgan Rielly (20) · backhand xG 0.16	4–6 ▶
9:18	OTT	Jordan Spence (2) Claude Giroux (20), Stephen Halliday (5) · wrist xG 0.30	5–6 ▶
18:44	TOR	John Tavares (15)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.45	5–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 55%Deserve to win45% TOR

OTT		TOR
4.19	Expected goals	5.40
5	Goals (no shootout)	7
3.33	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.23
63	Shot attempts	49
54	Unblocked attempts	42
31	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:31	OTT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 61–39% TOR had led since 0:40 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
2nd Period
0:20	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.68–0.33 In xG over 10 minutes, 12:50 of the 1st to 2:50 of the 2nd; goals 2–1
7:28	OTT	Goalie change	Goalie change · Meriläinen in for Ullmark 7:28 of the 2nd; Ullmark had allowed 4 goals on 14 shots (2.43 xG)
9:58	TOR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 62–38% OTT had led since 19:31 of the 1st, by as much as 85%
10:20	TOR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 2.45–0.26 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 2nd; goals 3–0
16:30	TOR	No shift	No shift · Nylander, 27:26 on the bench No shift after 6:22 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:25) before that
3rd Period
9:20	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.17–0.16 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:20 of the 2nd to 9:20 of the 3rd; goals 3–1
18:18	OTT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Meriläinen, down 6–5 With 1:42 left; TOR scored at 18:44 of the 3rd (5–7)

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	1	0	1	-1	7	0.38	4	0	22:12
19	Drake Batherson	1	0	1	-1	8	0.32	3	0	18:37
24	Dylan Cozens	0	1	1	0	4	0.35	6	0	18:20
28	Claude Giroux	0	2	2	-1	4	0.18	1	0	18:09
22	Michael Amadio	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	17:03
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	1	1	0	6	0.38	5	0	17:00
20	Fabian Zetterlund	0	1	1	0	2	0.17	1	0	15:26
71	Ridly Greig	1	0	1	0	2	0.88	0	1	14:34
16	David Perron	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	1	1	13:17
34	Stephen Halliday	0	2	2	+1	0	0.00	3	0	08:43
21	Nick Cousins	1	0	1	0	3	0.58	4	0	08:31
Defense
72	Thomas Chabot	0	0	0	+2	4	0.04	0	1	23:42
85	Jake Sanderson	0	0	0	0	6	0.07	1	1	23:20
10	Jordan Spence	1	1	2	+1	5	0.43	0	1	20:55
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	+1	3	0.06	0	1	20:01
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	14:31
4	Nick Jensen	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	14:30

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	14	4	10	.714	2.43	-1.57
Leevi Meriläinen	18	2	16	.889	1.45	-0.55

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	1	2	3	+2	13	2.56	0	0	19:08
74	Bobby McMann	1	0	1	+2	6	0.43	1	1	17:25
11	Max Domi	0	3	3	0	3	0.03	1	0	17:21
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	16:44
89	Matthew Knies	2	1	3	0	6	0.54	3	0	16:38
91	John Tavares	1	0	1	-1	2	0.49	1	0	16:38
63	Matias Maccelli	0	2	2	-2	0	0.00	1	1	15:54
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	0	15:40
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	0	1	0.50	7	0	13:09
10	Nicolas Roy	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	2	0	12:54
14	Nick Robertson	1	1	2	+1	5	0.49	0	0	09:52
88	William Nylander	1	0	1	-1	1	0.25	0	0	08:25
Defense
44	Morgan Rielly	0	1	1	0	3	0.05	1	1	22:27
22	Jake McCabe	0	1	1	+3	1	0.01	1	1	22:14
8	Chris Tanev	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	1	21:27
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	2	1	19:47
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	2	1	16:45
51	Philippe Myers	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	3	0	13:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	31	5	26	.839	4.19	-0.81

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 Jordan Spence D	+2.75	+1.45	+0.28	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:55
83 Stephen Halliday C	+1.92	+1.10	0.00	+0.83	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	8:43
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+1.68	+0.55	+0.24	+1.05	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	17:00
21 Nick Cousins C	+1.67	+0.75	+0.38	+0.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:31
24 Dylan Cozens C	+1.48	+0.70	+0.23	+0.58	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	18:20
72 Thomas Chabot D	+1.37	0.00	+0.03	+1.34	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	23:42
19 Drake Batherson R	+1.28	+0.75	+0.21	+0.33	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:37
18 Tim Stützle C	+1.25	+0.75	+0.25	+0.21	0.00	+0.06	-0.02	—	22:12
53 Xavier Bourgault R	+0.78	0.00	+0.17	+0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:43
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+0.70	+0.70	+0.11	+0.02	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	15:26
28 Claude Giroux R	+0.68	+1.40	+0.11	-0.82	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:09
57 David Perron L	+0.46	0.00	+0.05	+0.20	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:17
71 Ridly Greig C	+0.25	+0.75	+0.57	-1.12	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	14:34
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D	-0.32	0.00	+0.01	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:31
2 Artem Zub D	-0.36	0.00	+0.04	-0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:01
85 Jake Sanderson D	-0.41	0.00	+0.05	-0.32	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	23:20
1 Leevi Meriläinen G	-0.55	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.55	30:55
3 Nick Jensen D	-0.79	0.00	0.00	-0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	14:30
35 Linus Ullmark G	-1.57	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.57	27:28
22 Michael Amadio R	-1.67	0.00	0.00	-1.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:03

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
34 Auston Matthews C	+6.45	+2.15	+1.66	+2.48	+0.15	-0.02	+0.02	—	19:08
11 Max Domi C	+3.86	+1.95	+0.02	+1.91	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	17:21
74 Bobby McMann C	+3.47	+0.75	+0.28	+2.43	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:25
23 Matthew Knies L	+2.03	+2.20	+0.35	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:38
89 Nick Robertson L	+1.76	+1.30	+0.32	+0.19	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	9:52
22 Jake McCabe D	+1.05	+0.55	0.00	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:14
28 Troy Stecher D	+0.86	0.00	+0.03	+0.82	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:47
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:45
8 Chris Tanev D	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	21:27
44 Morgan Rielly D	-0.04	+0.55	+0.03	-0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:27
55 Nicolas Roy C	-0.10	+0.55	0.00	-0.63	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	12:54
88 William Nylander R	-0.10	+0.75	+0.16	-1.18	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	8:25
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.12	0.00	+0.33	-0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:09
63 Matias Maccelli L	-0.35	+1.25	0.00	-1.63	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:54
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.42	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	15:40
91 John Tavares C	-0.76	+0.75	+0.32	-1.78	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	16:38
60 Joseph Woll G	-0.81	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.81	60:00
24 Scott Laughton C	-1.04	0.00	0.00	-1.18	+0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	16:44
51 Philippe Myers D	-1.40	0.00	0.00	-1.25	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.