hockeystats.io

Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–3 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 101 2 32
St. Louis BluesSTL 201 3 20

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:45 STL Brayden Schenn (7)PP Cam Fowler (13), Dalibor Dvorsky (3) · tip-in xG 0.22 0–1 ▶
11:41 NSH Tyson Jost (3) Nicolas Hague (7) · tip-in xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
18:14 STL Pavel Buchnevich (6) Robert Thomas (19) · backhand xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
4:40 STL Pavel Buchnevich (7) Robert Thomas (20), Philip Broberg (11) · wrist xG 0.17 1–3 ▶
12:03 NSH Fedor Svechkov (2)SH Erik Haula (15), Nicolas Hague (8) · wrist xG 0.10 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 51%Deserve to win49% STL
NSHSTL
3.40Expected goals3.74
2Goals (no shootout)3
2.39Expected goals, 5 on 53.12
72Shot attempts37
52Unblocked attempts34
32Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:10 STL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.37–0.27
In xG over 10 minutes, 18:10 of the 1st to 8:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
17:50 NSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Saros, down 3–2
With 2:10 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Robert Thomas: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:20) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:28) Roman Josi: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:48) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:19) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:25) Erik Haula: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:48) Nick Perbix: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:11) Cole Smith: wrist, 133 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:47) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:35) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:16) Cole Smith: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:04) Filip Forsberg: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:49) Philip Broberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:07) Brady Skjei: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:21) Jimmy Snuggerud: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:40) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:12) Cole Smith: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 17:15) Filip Forsberg: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:58) Pius Suter: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 18:51) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:36) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 19:38) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:24) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:06) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:14) Roman Josi: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:36) Roman Josi: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:44) Roman Josi: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:14) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 108 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:19) Erik Haula: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:22) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:12) Fedor Svechkov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:20) Colton Parayko: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:45) Pius Suter: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:01) Alexey Toropchenko: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 8:07) Jake Neighbours: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:14) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:58) Erik Haula: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:05) Roman Josi: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:47) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:31) Matthew Wood: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:49) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:55) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 13:50) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:57) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:00) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:06) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:36) Roman Josi: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:47) Filip Forsberg: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:52) Oskar Sundqvist: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:02) Michael Bunting: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:18) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:44) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:40) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:09) Brady Skjei: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:27) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:42) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:52) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:15) Tyson Jost: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 3:06) Matthew Wood: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:08) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:36) Brady Skjei: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:25) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:32) Erik Haula: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:10) Matthew Wood: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:49) Alexey Toropchenko: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:05) Alexey Toropchenko: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:06) Erik Haula: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:38) Cam Fowler: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:09) Otto Stenberg: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:19) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:20) Fedor Svechkov: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 14:21) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:28) Michael Bunting: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:44) Erik Haula: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:47) Brady Skjei: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:56) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:05) Roman Josi: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:07) Philip Broberg: wrist, 132 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 19:00) Steven Stamkos: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:34) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:39) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 19:58) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 8:45) Tyson Jost: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:41) Pavel Buchnevich: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:14) Pavel Buchnevich: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 4:40) Fedor Svechkov: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
77 Luke Evangelista 000 -1 50.25 0118:39
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -1 50.11 2018:30
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -2 30.18 0018:05
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 60.21 1016:40
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -1 40.15 2016:00
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 00.00 3115:44
56 Erik Haula 011 +1 60.41 1015:15
71 Matthew Wood 000 +1 30.30 0014:55
9 Fedor Svechkov 101 +2 40.35 0013:07
22 Cole Smith 000 0 40.36 1012:13
49 Reid Schaefer 000 0 40.09 3110:39
17 Tyson Jost 101 +1 20.29 2010:35
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 -1 120.22 0023:38
76 Brady Skjei 000 0 60.32 2023:16
48 Nick Perbix 000 -1 20.02 0020:00
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 +1 10.03 0018:38
41 Nicolas Hague 022 +1 30.00 0017:05
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 20.12 0015:42
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 20317 .850 3.35 +0.35

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 202 +2 40.56 0020:48
18 Robert Thomas 022 +2 10.12 0020:43
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 0 60.51 0117:11
10 Brayden Schenn 101 -1 20.52 2016:57
63 Jake Neighbours 000 +1 30.24 1115:19
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -2 10.01 0314:33
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 0 10.01 2114:09
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 -1 30.37 2112:43
28 Otto Stenberg 000 -1 40.51 2012:17
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 0 10.00 0011:45
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 011 -1 00.00 3011:14
22 Pius Suter 000 0 20.25 3010:55
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 000 -1 00.00 2223:15
6 Philip Broberg 011 +2 30.42 0422:58
55 Colton Parayko 000 +2 10.02 2222:21
17 Cam Fowler 011 -1 20.01 1219:53
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 10.00 3016:09
23 Logan Mailloux 000 0 20.20 2213:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 32230 .938 3.40 +1.40

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
40 Fedor Svechkov C +1.04 +0.75 +0.23 +0.15 0.00 -0.07 -0.02 — 13:07
17 Tyson Jost C +0.99 +0.75 +0.19 +0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:35
56 Erik Haula L +0.93 +0.70 +0.27 -0.06 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:15
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.72 +1.25 0.00 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:05
76 Brady Skjei D +0.60 0.00 +0.21 +0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:16
71 Matthew Wood R +0.43 0.00 +0.20 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 14:55
74 Juuse Saros G +0.35 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.35 57:52
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.33 0.00 +0.08 +0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:42
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.31 0.00 +0.06 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:39
36 Cole Smith R +0.30 0.00 +0.23 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:13
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.03 0.00 +0.07 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:30
47 Michael McCarron C -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.05 +0.07 — 15:44
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.30 0.00 +0.10 -0.38 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:00
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.50 0.00 +0.02 -0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:38
59 Roman Josi D -0.70 0.00 +0.14 -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:38
48 Nick Perbix D -0.72 0.00 +0.01 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:00
58 Michael Bunting L -0.72 0.00 +0.14 -0.85 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:40
77 Luke Evangelista R -0.82 0.00 +0.16 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:39
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -0.83 0.00 +0.12 -0.79 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 18:05

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +2.63 +1.50 +0.36 +0.80 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 20:48
18 Robert Thomas C +2.33 +1.40 +0.07 +0.80 0.00 +0.04 +0.02 — 20:43
6 Philip Broberg D +1.90 +0.55 +0.28 +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 22:58
17 Cam Fowler D +1.57 +0.70 0.00 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 19:53
10 Brayden Schenn C +1.53 +0.75 +0.34 +0.60 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:57
55 Colton Parayko D +1.43 0.00 +0.01 +1.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 22:21
30 Joel Hofer G +1.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.40 59:47
28 Otto Stenberg C +1.22 0.00 +0.33 +0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:17
25 Jordan Kyrou R +1.07 0.00 +0.33 +0.72 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:11
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.99 0.00 +0.16 +0.80 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:19
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.71 +0.55 0.00 -0.01 +0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 11:14
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.53 0.00 +0.13 +0.48 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 13:03
22 Pius Suter C +0.35 0.00 +0.16 +0.19 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:55
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.44 0.00 +0.07 +0.15 — 14:33
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.24 0.00 +0.24 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:43
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:45
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R -0.60 0.00 +0.01 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:09
72 Justin Faulk D -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:15
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:09

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.