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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–3 Final/OT Detroit Red WingsDET

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 0110 2 27
Detroit Red WingsDET 0111 3 36

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
4:25 TOR Matthew Knies (10)PP Auston Matthews (12), John Tavares (19) · snap xG 0.24 1–0 ▶
19:01 DET Moritz Seider (7) Lucas Raymond (31) · wrist xG 0.05 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:53 TOR Nick Robertson (8) John Tavares (20) · snap xG 0.09 2–1 ▶
5:16 DET Mason Appleton (4) Michael Rasmussen (7), Albert Johansson (5) · wrist xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
Overtime
1:46 DET Simon Edvinsson (5) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.30 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 48%Deserve to win52% DET
TORDET
2.91Expected goals3.02
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.65Expected goals, 5 on 52.26
58Shot attempts69
41Unblocked attempts55
27Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
10:30 TOR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.29–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 2nd; goals 1–0

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots
Lucas Raymond: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:27) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:02) Scott Laughton: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:18) Max Domi: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:35) Auston Matthews: wrap-around, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:39) Andrew Copp: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:14) Scott Laughton: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 5:36) Lucas Raymond: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:38) John Tavares: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:48) Bobby McMann: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:07) Lucas Raymond: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:48) Marco Kasper: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:03) Marco Kasper: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:05) John Leonard: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:16) John Leonard: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:22) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:35) Moritz Seider: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:01) Matthew Knies: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:15) Max Domi: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:47) Chris Tanev: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:54) Emmitt Finnie: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:40) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:11) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:18) Nicolas Roy: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:07) Morgan Rielly: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:09) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:38) Patrick Kane: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:36) Mason Appleton: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:51) Auston Matthews: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:21) Nick Robertson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:14) Easton Cowan: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:48) John Leonard: tip-in, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:56) Ben Chiarot: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:01) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 182 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:33) Auston Matthews: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:02) John Tavares: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:20) Moritz Seider: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:24) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:01) Nate Danielson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:35) Ben Chiarot: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:56) Auston Matthews: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:49) John Tavares: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:19) Auston Matthews: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.43 (P2 10:22) Auston Matthews: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:40) Albert Johansson: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:26) Andrew Copp: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:36) Albert Johansson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:43) Jacob Bernard-Docker: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:51) Lucas Raymond: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:50) Simon Edvinsson: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:14) Mason Appleton: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:32) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:12) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:26) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:59) Moritz Seider: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:19) Lucas Raymond: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:50) Nick Robertson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:56) Andrew Copp: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:13) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 1:39) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:53) Bobby McMann: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:02) Bobby McMann: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:23) Patrick Kane: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:15) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:17) Patrick Kane: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:24) Dakota Joshua: slap, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:06) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:28) Marco Kasper: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:45) Troy Stecher: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:34) John Tavares: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:35) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:54) Dylan Larkin: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:45) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:12) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:39) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:54) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:11) Nate Danielson: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:10) Andrew Copp: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:15) Emmitt Finnie: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 12:17) Easton Cowan: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:24) Jake McCabe: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 13:06) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:41) Philippe Myers: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:05) Andrew Copp: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:30) Andrew Copp: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:31) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:32) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:46) Moritz Seider: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:37) Matthew Knies: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:59) Auston Matthews: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:27) Patrick Kane: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:37) Matthew Knies: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 4:25) Moritz Seider: GOAL, wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:01) Nick Robertson: GOAL, snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:53) Mason Appleton: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:16) Simon Edvinsson: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.30 (OT 1:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 011 -2 90.79 0122:01
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 70.09 4019:12
11 Max Domi 000 -1 20.02 0018:59
91 John Tavares 022 +1 40.39 1017:47
89 Matthew Knies 101 0 50.58 1017:28
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 20.03 2015:52
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 20.01 0015:43
14 Nick Robertson 101 0 30.18 0112:54
81 Dakota Joshua 000 0 20.17 2112:23
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 10.00 4011:24
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 20.21 1110:44
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 20.06 1009:53
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 -1 20.25 1022:48
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 60.04 3021:49
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -2 30.03 0120:35
8 Chris Tanev 000 0 10.05 0420:10
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 20.01 0219:37
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 30.01 4013:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dennis Hildeby 36333 .917 3.02 +0.02

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Dylan Larkin 000 +2 40.09 0021:21
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 +1 30.37 3019:58
23 Lucas Raymond 011 +1 60.32 0019:50
88 Patrick Kane 000 +1 40.34 1017:51
18 Andrew Copp 000 0 60.33 1017:29
93 Alex DeBrincat 000 -1 70.39 0117:06
37 J.T. Compher 000 0 10.00 0015:47
22 Mason Appleton 101 0 40.18 2115:08
27 Michael Rasmussen 011 +1 00.00 1013:28
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 40.06 1008:25
43 John Leonard 000 0 50.07 0107:31
Defense
77 Simon Edvinsson 101 +2 50.36 0225:57
53 Moritz Seider 101 +1 50.20 1324:24
8 Ben Chiarot 000 -1 40.08 1222:36
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 +1 10.00 0117:07
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 -1 30.06 0015:47
20 Albert Johansson 011 +1 40.06 0313:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Cam Talbot 27225 .926 2.91 +0.91

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +1.55 +1.25 +0.25 +0.07 0.00 -0.04 +0.02 — 17:47
89 Nick Robertson L +1.29 +0.75 +0.12 +0.35 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 12:54
23 Matthew Knies L +0.95 +0.75 +0.38 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:28
34 Auston Matthews C +0.85 +0.70 +0.51 -0.36 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 22:01
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.67 0.00 +0.11 +0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:23
8 Chris Tanev D +0.51 0.00 +0.03 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 20:10
51 Philippe Myers D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:59
35 Dennis Hildeby G +0.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.02 61:46
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.02 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:52
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:43
22 Jake McCabe D -0.32 0.00 +0.16 -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:48
28 Troy Stecher D -0.32 0.00 +0.01 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:37
53 Easton Cowan R -0.35 0.00 +0.04 -0.54 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:53
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.37 0.00 +0.03 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:49
24 Scott Laughton C -0.38 0.00 +0.13 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:44
11 Max Domi C -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 18:59
74 Bobby McMann C -0.54 0.00 +0.06 -0.45 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:12
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.59 0.00 +0.02 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:35
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:24

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Simon Edvinsson D +1.97 +0.75 +0.24 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 25:57
53 Moritz Seider D +1.58 +0.75 +0.13 +0.42 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 24:24
23 Lucas Raymond L +1.32 +0.70 +0.21 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:50
18 Andrew Copp C +1.25 0.00 +0.22 +1.04 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 17:29
88 Patrick Kane R +1.10 0.00 +0.22 +0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:51
58 Emmitt Finnie C +1.03 0.00 +0.24 +0.80 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:58
93 Alex DeBrincat R +0.98 0.00 +0.25 +0.64 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 17:06
39 Cam Talbot G +0.91 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.91 61:46
20 Albert Johansson D +0.77 +0.55 +0.04 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 13:55
71 Dylan Larkin C +0.66 0.00 +0.06 +0.56 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 21:21
27 Michael Rasmussen C +0.34 +0.70 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:28
29 Nate Danielson C +0.20 0.00 +0.07 +0.16 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 8:42
22 Mason Appleton C +0.19 +0.75 +0.12 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:08
43 John Leonard L +0.16 0.00 +0.05 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:31
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D +0.16 0.00 +0.04 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:47
8 Ben Chiarot D +0.08 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 -0.15 0.00 +0.14 — 22:36
92 Marco Kasper C -0.08 0.00 +0.04 -0.16 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 8:25
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:07
37 J.T. Compher L -0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.73 -0.15 -0.04 -0.04 — 15:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.