Edmonton OilersEDM 3–1 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Monday, December 29, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 021 3 21
Winnipeg JetsWPG 001 1 42

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
8:00 EDM Max Jones (1) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.28 1–0 ▶
12:49 EDM Jack Roslovic (11)PP Adam Henrique (8), Matt Savoie (6) · wrist xG 0.22 2–0 ▶
3rd Period
5:46 WPG Adam Lowry (2) Morgan Barron (6) · backhand xG 0.15 2–1 ▶
18:37 EDM Zach Hyman (11)EN Connor McDavid (45) · wrist xG 0.53 3–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 29%Deserve to win71% WPG
EDMWPG
3.60Expected goals3.94
3Goals (no shootout)1
2.11Expected goals, 5 on 52.57
45Shot attempts80
36Unblocked attempts63
21Shots on goal42

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
10:26 EDM Goalie Goalie · Pickard +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 23 shots on goal
3rd Period
18:18 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 2–1
With 1:42 left; EDM scored at 18:37 of the 3rd (3–1)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Kyle Connor: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:50) Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:21) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:32) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:21) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 5:50) Jonathan Toews: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:51) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:22) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:37) Logan Stanley: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:55) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:15) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:12) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:21) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:38) Adam Lowry: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:40) Zach Hyman: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:15) Connor McDavid: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:16) Kyle Connor: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:34) Gustav Nyquist: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:35) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:48) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:54) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:42) Max Jones: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:42) Curtis Lazar: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:46) Josh Morrissey: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:34) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 17:58) Kyle Connor: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:09) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:18) Mark Scheifele: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 18:23) Vasily Podkolzin: backhand, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:51) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:26) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:58) Morgan Barron: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 2:25) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:29) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:30) Logan Stanley: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:36) Logan Stanley: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:56) Connor McDavid: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 3:56) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:56) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:55) Kyle Connor: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:25) Mark Scheifele: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:06) Gabriel Vilardi: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:19) Kyle Connor: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:26) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:44) Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:02) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:37) Adam Henrique: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 12:46) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:17) Kyle Connor: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:36) Adam Lowry: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:13) Neal Pionk: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:39) Morgan Barron: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:58) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:14) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 19:27) Mattias Janmark: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 19:38) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:27) Adam Lowry: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:07) Morgan Barron: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:12) Morgan Barron: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:13) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:33) Evan Bouchard: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:35) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:16) Evan Bouchard: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:23) Neal Pionk: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:01) Trent Frederic: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:18) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:23) Mattias Janmark: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:52) Evan Bouchard: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:31) Connor McDavid: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:37) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:52) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:38) Kyle Connor: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:17) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:37) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:52) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:18) Logan Stanley: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:31) Connor McDavid: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:53) Kyle Connor: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:55) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:10) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:22) Morgan Barron: wrist, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:44) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:15) Logan Stanley: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:25) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:58) Mattias Ekholm: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:21) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:53) Dylan Samberg: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:50) Kyle Connor: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:53) Kyle Connor: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:08) Zach Hyman: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:49) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:57) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:00) Josh Morrissey: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:06) Adam Henrique: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 19:11) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:44) Max Jones: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 8:00) Jack Roslovic: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 12:49) Adam Lowry: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 5:46) Zach Hyman: GOAL, wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.53 (P3 18:37)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Leon Draisaitl 000 0 70.39 1121:18
97 Connor McDavid 011 +1 50.29 1019:43
13 Mattias Janmark 000 0 30.29 0018:06
18 Zach Hyman 101 +1 30.59 1118:02
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 0 20.03 4117:23
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 +1 10.14 0114:49
22 Matt Savoie 011 0 00.00 0014:18
96 Jack Roslovic 101 0 40.30 0013:12
19 Adam Henrique 011 0 20.59 0012:43
10 Trent Frederic 000 0 10.01 2008:55
20 Curtis Lazar 000 0 10.06 5108:20
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 000 0 50.27 0226:35
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 0 40.20 1123:17
25 Darnell Nurse 000 0 30.02 0321:38
24 Spencer Stastney 000 0 20.02 1221:07
49 Ty Emberson 000 +1 00.00 1214:47
61 Riley Stillman 000 +1 00.00 3211:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Calvin Pickard 42141 .976 3.94 +2.94

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 000 -2 70.65 2126:44
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -2 70.65 0025:09
81 Kyle Connor 000 -1 120.75 0024:15
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 0 20.12 1014:38
36 Morgan Barron 011 +1 50.36 4013:37
19 Jonathan Toews 000 -1 60.38 0012:35
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -1 40.18 1112:32
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 0 30.01 0012:30
17 Adam Lowry 101 +1 50.23 3012:24
70 Tanner Pearson 000 +1 50.14 2111:36
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 20.06 0010:28
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 00.00 2009:22
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 -2 40.17 0127:58
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 0 30.06 3122:20
4 Neal Pionk 000 -1 20.07 4119:33
54 Dylan Samberg 000 +1 40.05 0118:04
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 60.06 3114:42
2 Luke Schenn 000 0 30.00 7011:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 20218 .900 2.59 +0.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Calvin Pickard G +2.94 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.94 59:56
18 Zach Hyman L +1.61 +0.75 +0.39 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:02
97 Connor McDavid C +1.50 +0.70 +0.19 +0.64 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 19:43
46 Max Jones L +1.21 +0.75 +0.25 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:01
19 Adam Henrique C +0.76 +0.70 +0.38 -0.36 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 12:43
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.53 0.00 +0.13 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:17
20 Curtis Lazar C +0.36 0.00 +0.04 +0.30 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 8:20
49 Ty Emberson D +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 14:47
2 Evan Bouchard D +0.32 0.00 +0.18 +0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 26:35
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.22 +0.75 +0.20 -0.70 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 13:12
61 Riley Stillman D +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 11:50
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C +0.12 0.00 +0.09 +0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 14:49
22 Matt Savoie C +0.04 +0.55 0.00 -0.46 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:18
10 Trent Frederic C -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 8:55
29 Leon Draisaitl C -0.23 0.00 +0.25 -0.56 0.00 +0.07 +0.01 — 21:18
25 Darnell Nurse D -0.56 0.00 +0.01 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.19 — 21:38
92 Vasily Podkolzin R -0.56 0.00 +0.02 -0.62 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 17:23
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.61 0.00 +0.01 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:07
13 Mattias Janmark C -0.66 0.00 +0.19 -0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:06

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
36 Morgan Barron C +1.49 +0.70 +0.23 +0.59 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:37
17 Adam Lowry C +1.26 +0.75 +0.15 +0.41 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 12:24
81 Kyle Connor L +0.98 0.00 +0.49 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:15
4 Neal Pionk D +0.77 0.00 +0.05 +0.50 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:33
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.68 0.00 +0.09 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:36
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.66 0.00 +0.42 +0.07 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 25:09
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.72 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:04
19 Jonathan Toews C +0.61 0.00 +0.25 +0.34 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 12:35
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +0.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.59 58:24
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.54 0.00 +0.42 +0.03 +0.15 -0.09 +0.03 — 26:44
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.20 0.00 +0.04 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:28
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.17 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:20
44 Josh Morrissey D +0.14 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 27:58
5 Luke Schenn D +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:33
62 Nino Niederreiter R -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:30
91 Cole Perfetti C -0.28 0.00 +0.12 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:32
64 Logan Stanley D -0.29 0.00 +0.04 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:42
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.30 0.00 +0.08 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:38
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.