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Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–3 Final Utah MammothUTA

Monday, December 29, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 112 4 26
Utah MammothUTA 111 3 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:48 UTA JJ Peterka (15)PP Dylan Guenther (15), Clayton Keller (21) · snap xG 0.16 0–1 ▶
9:51 NSH Roman Josi (4) Filip Forsberg (14), Steven Stamkos (8) · snap xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:41 UTA Mikhail Sergachev (5) Nick Schmaltz (21), Sean Durzi (8) · slap xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
7:51 NSH Luke Evangelista (6) Tyson Jost (4), Nick Blankenburg (12) · wrist xG 0.38 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:02 UTA Dylan Guenther (17) Lawson Crouse (7), Barrett Hayton (5) · backhand xG 0.11 2–3 ▶
11:39 NSH Steven Stamkos (16)PP Ryan O'Reilly (22), Luke Evangelista (21) · snap xG 0.21 3–3 ▶
13:17 NSH Steven Stamkos (17) Ryan O'Reilly (23), Nick Perbix (5) · wrist xG 0.16 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 30%Deserve to win70% UTA
NSHUTA
2.56Expected goals3.56
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.50Expected goals, 5 on 52.29
54Shot attempts73
37Unblocked attempts52
26Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:15 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vanecek, down 4–3
With 1:45 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Michael Bunting: backhand, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:16) Sean Durzi: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:50) Michael Carcone: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:15) Dylan Guenther: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:49) Brady Skjei: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:02) Alexander Kerfoot: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:17) Barrett Hayton: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:39) Daniil But: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:28) Matthew Wood: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:28) Nicolas Hague: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:24) Daniil But: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:15) Sean Durzi: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:25) Brady Skjei: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:39) Erik Haula: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:41) Adam Wilsby: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:45) Dylan Guenther: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:30) Daniil But: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:15) Clayton Keller: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:47) Dylan Guenther: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:03) Erik Haula: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:19) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 17:46) Nick Schmaltz: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:58) JJ Peterka: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 18:23) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:28) Sean Durzi: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:58) Lawson Crouse: snap, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:22) Cole Smith: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 1:27) Erik Haula: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:53) Michael Carcone: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:45) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:00) Ian Cole: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:52) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:41) Adam Wilsby: backhand, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:58) John Marino: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:03) Tyson Jost: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:48) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:51) Filip Forsberg: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:15) Ian Cole: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:28) Ian Cole: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:28) Michael McCarron: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:56) Alexander Kerfoot: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:20) Roman Josi: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:33) Barrett Hayton: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:42) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 13:25) Michael McCarron: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:34) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:04) Roman Josi: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:01) Erik Haula: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:24) Nick DeSimone: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 17:12) Roman Josi: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:31) Lawson Crouse: tip-in, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:40) Nate Schmidt: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:09) Nate Schmidt: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:18) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:52) Daniil But: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:01) Michael Carcone: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:08) Alexander Kerfoot: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:33) Lawson Crouse: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:58) Dylan Guenther: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:10) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:12) Michael McCarron: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:29) Erik Haula: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:14) Dylan Guenther: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:57) Michael Bunting: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:47) Michael McCarron: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:31) Michael McCarron: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:32) Matthew Wood: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:42) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:13) Luke Evangelista: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:21) Steven Stamkos: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:22) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:31) Nate Schmidt: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:04) Michael Bunting: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:48) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:01) JJ Peterka: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:04) Nick Schmaltz: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:37) Dylan Guenther: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:07) Cole Smith: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:50) JJ Peterka: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:59) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:57) Erik Haula: snap, 92 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 19:31) Dylan Guenther: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:51) JJ Peterka: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:48) Roman Josi: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 9:51) Mikhail Sergachev: GOAL, slap, 60 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:41) Luke Evangelista: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.38 (P2 7:51) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:02) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 11:39) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:17)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 022 +1 10.11 0220:33
9 Filip Forsberg 011 0 10.04 3019:03
91 Steven Stamkos 213 +1 40.40 0217:12
56 Erik Haula 000 0 60.52 2117:02
77 Luke Evangelista 112 +2 60.62 0016:37
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 +1 20.00 2214:17
47 Michael McCarron 000 -1 70.12 2314:05
22 Cole Smith 000 -1 20.22 1113:18
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 50.03 0013:12
17 Tyson Jost 011 +1 10.05 1010:33
49 Reid Schaefer 000 -1 10.00 1110:24
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 20.06 1109:24
Defense
59 Roman Josi 101 +2 60.26 0222:43
76 Brady Skjei 000 -2 30.03 0121:55
48 Nick Perbix 011 +2 00.00 1019:34
41 Nicolas Hague 000 +1 20.04 1219:21
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -2 20.01 0118:31
3 Nick Blankenburg 011 +1 30.04 1015:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 31328 .903 3.56 +0.56

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 JJ Peterka 101 +1 40.53 1023:05
9 Clayton Keller 011 +1 10.04 0022:46
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 +1 70.71 0022:10
11 Dylan Guenther 112 0 100.51 0019:20
67 Lawson Crouse 011 0 50.03 2017:33
27 Barrett Hayton 011 0 70.39 1015:32
53 Michael Carcone 000 -2 50.20 1113:59
22 Jack McBain 000 -2 00.00 4113:11
50 Daniil But 000 -1 50.39 0112:29
14 Alexander Kerfoot 000 -1 30.09 1009:34
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 10.11 1008:38
38 Liam O'Brien 000 0 10.00 0106:59
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 101 0 50.14 1125:19
6 John Marino 000 +1 20.01 0121:09
5 Sean Durzi 011 0 70.05 2320:23
88 Nate Schmidt 000 +1 40.06 0518:25
28 Ian Cole 000 -2 40.09 1115:57
57 Nick DeSimone 000 -2 20.21 1111:42
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Vitek Vanecek 26422 .846 2.37 -1.63

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C +2.43 +2.05 +0.26 -0.01 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 — 17:12
77 Luke Evangelista R +2.36 +1.30 +0.40 +0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:37
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.48 +1.40 +0.07 -0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 — 20:33
17 Tyson Jost C +1.03 +0.70 +0.03 +0.32 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:33
59 Roman Josi D +0.99 +0.75 +0.17 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:43
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.75 +0.55 +0.02 +0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:24
74 Juuse Saros G +0.56 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.56 60:00
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.53 +0.70 +0.03 -0.33 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:03
56 Erik Haula L +0.35 0.00 +0.34 -0.14 +0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 17:02
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 -0.02 +0.12 — 14:17
48 Nick Perbix D +0.31 +0.55 0.00 -0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 19:34
71 Matthew Wood R -0.12 0.00 +0.04 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 9:24
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 19:21
58 Michael Bunting L -0.30 0.00 +0.02 -0.31 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:12
47 Michael McCarron C -0.53 0.00 +0.08 -0.75 0.00 -0.03 +0.17 — 14:05
76 Brady Skjei D -0.67 0.00 +0.02 -0.57 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:55
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.74 0.00 +0.01 -0.80 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:31
49 Reid Schaefer L -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:24
36 Cole Smith R -0.75 0.00 +0.14 -0.80 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:18

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +2.17 +1.45 +0.33 +0.40 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:20
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.85 +0.75 +0.09 +1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 25:19
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.77 +0.70 +0.46 +0.39 +0.30 -0.04 -0.04 — 22:10
27 Barrett Hayton C +1.70 +0.55 +0.26 +0.54 +0.30 +0.07 -0.02 — 15:32
77 JJ Peterka R +1.42 +0.75 +0.35 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 23:05
50 Sean Durzi D +1.27 +0.55 +0.03 +0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:23
67 Lawson Crouse L +1.21 +0.70 +0.02 +0.51 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 17:33
9 Clayton Keller R +1.06 +0.55 +0.03 +0.45 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 22:46
6 John Marino D +0.69 0.00 +0.01 +0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 21:09
19 Daniil But L +0.66 0.00 +0.25 +0.36 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 12:29
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.65 0.00 +0.04 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 18:25
38 Liam O'Brien C +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 6:59
82 Kevin Stenlund C +0.10 0.00 +0.07 +0.17 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 8:38
53 Michael Carcone L -0.16 0.00 +0.13 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:59
22 Jack McBain C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 +0.04 +0.07 — 13:11
57 Nick DeSimone D -0.28 0.00 +0.14 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:42
15 Alexander Kerfoot C -0.40 0.00 +0.06 -0.41 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 9:34
28 Ian Cole D -0.76 0.00 +0.06 -0.74 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 15:57
41 Vitek Vanecek G -1.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.63 58:15

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.