Monday, December 29, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
BOS 50%Deserve to win 50% CGY
BOS CGY
2.27 Expected goals 2.23
1 Goals (no shootout) 2
1.41 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.19
50 Shot attempts 49
36 Unblocked attempts 31
26 Shots on goal 20
Shot map
BOS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → CGY shoots
Joel Farabee: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:23)
Blake Coleman: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:20)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:05)
Rasmus Andersson: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:51)
Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:46)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:55)
Charlie McAvoy: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:02)
Viktor Arvidsson: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 8:05)
Morgan Geekie: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:49)
Pavel Zacha: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 8:51)
Casey Mittelstadt: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:48)
Mikael Backlund: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:58)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:06)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:30)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:48)
Casey Mittelstadt: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:12)
Joel Farabee: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:29)
Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:31)
Nazem Kadri: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:36)
Mikael Backlund: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:45)
MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:53)
Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:39)
Morgan Frost: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:45)
Mark Kastelic: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:55)
MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:34)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:59)
Joel Hanley: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:28)
Hunter Brzustewicz: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:37)
Connor Zary: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:25)
Morgan Frost: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:45)
MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:50)
Rasmus Andersson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:29)
Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:54)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:06)
Andrew Peeke: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:36)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:40)
Jonathan Aspirot: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:47)
Blake Coleman: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:39)
Blake Coleman: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:09)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:19)
Fraser Minten: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:24)
David Pastrnak: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:38)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:01)
MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:08)
Morgan Frost: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:11)
David Pastrnak: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:51)
Nazem Kadri: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:48)
Charlie McAvoy: backhand, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:48)
Viktor Arvidsson: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:36)
David Pastrnak: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:44)
Charlie McAvoy: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:42)
Hampus Lindholm: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:53)
Casey Mittelstadt: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 9:57)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:13)
Morgan Frost: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 12:45)
Joel Farabee: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:24)
Nikita Zadorov: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:49)
Hampus Lindholm: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:40)
Elias Lindholm: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:03)
Nikita Zadorov: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (OT 0:09)
Pavel Zacha: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 0:57)
Nikita Zadorov: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:58)
Nazem Kadri: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:27)
Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:51)
Andrew Peeke: GOAL, deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:06)
Blake Coleman: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:32)
Connor Zary: GOAL, shot, 6 ft, xG 0.60 (OT 1:53)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Dustin Wolf
26 1 25
.962
2.27
+1.27
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
47 Connor Zary C
+1.74
+0.75
+0.45
+0.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:32
20 Blake Coleman L
+1.51
+0.75
+0.16
+0.41
+0.15
+0.02
+0.02
—
18:22
32 Dustin Wolf G
+1.27
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.27
61:53
11 Mikael Backlund C
+1.12
+0.70
+0.09
+0.35
0.00
+0.01
-0.02
—
16:38
16 Morgan Frost C
+0.91
0.00
+0.31
+0.59
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
15:14
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L
+0.70
0.00
+0.07
+0.53
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
19:48
27 Matt Coronato R
+0.60
0.00
0.00
+0.41
+0.15
+0.02
+0.02
—
16:06
44 Joel Hanley D
+0.58
+0.55
+0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
9:25
52 MacKenzie Weegar D
+0.25
0.00
+0.11
-0.04
0.00
0.00
+0.18
—
27:38
37 Yan Kuznetsov D
+0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.15
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
22:59
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D
+0.18
0.00
+0.02
+0.04
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
10:35
70 Ryan Lomberg L
+0.08
0.00
+0.04
-0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
8:49
43 Adam Klapka R
-0.01
0.00
0.00
+0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
—
8:53
18 John Beecher C
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.05
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
9:06
4 Rasmus Andersson D
-0.28
0.00
+0.03
-0.17
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
24:43
7 Kevin Bahl D
-0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
21:54
17 Yegor Sharangovich C
-0.90
0.00
+0.05
-1.15
+0.15
-0.02
+0.06
—
19:08
91 Nazem Kadri C
-1.12
0.00
+0.07
-1.13
0.00
-0.05
0.00
—
20:06
86 Joel Farabee L
-1.18
0.00
+0.03
-1.19
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
17:36
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.