hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 1–5 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 010 1 28
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 320 5 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:46 PIT Sidney Crosby (21) Rickard Rakell (9), Bryan Rust (18) · snap xG 0.16 0–1 ▶
16:07 PIT Justin Brazeau (12) Brett Kulak (3) · backhand xG 0.16 0–2 ▶
17:12 PIT Anthony Mantha (13)PP Bryan Rust (19), Erik Karlsson (24) · wrist xG 0.28 0–3 ▶
2nd Period
15:08 PIT Tommy Novak (7) Parker Wotherspoon (10), Erik Karlsson (25) · wrist xG 0.02 0–4 ▶
18:08 PIT Anthony Mantha (14) Justin Brazeau (8), Tommy Novak (13) · tip-in xG 0.12 0–5 ▶
18:25 CAR Mark Jankowski (2) Joel Nystrom (7), Mike Reilly (5) · wrist xG 0.10 1–5 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 35%Deserve to win65% PIT
CARPIT
2.07Expected goals2.93
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.84Expected goals, 5 on 52.43
64Shot attempts61
42Unblocked attempts45
28Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:08 CAR Goalie Goalie · Andersen −2.5 goals saved
5 goals on 2.49 xG, 20 shots on goal
3rd Period
19:00 CAR Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Martinook and Staal: no shift after 8:54 of the 3rd

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Bryan Rust: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:18) Eric Robinson: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:31) Kris Letang: wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:37) William Carrier: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:02) Sean Walker: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:18) Rutger McGroarty: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:35) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:59) Blake Lizotte: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:30) Erik Karlsson: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:40) Jackson Blake: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 5:09) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:10) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:09) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:22) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:51) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:20) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 9:37) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:37) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:42) Eric Robinson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:11) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:12) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:18) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:52) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:47) Kris Letang: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:10) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:14) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:18) Sean Walker: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:43) Sean Walker: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:51) Jack St. Ivany: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:17) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:22) Bryan Rust: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:10) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:15) Kris Letang: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:56) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:18) Mike Reilly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:23) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:32) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:36) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:38) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:56) Connor Dewar: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:21) Noel Acciari: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:23) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:41) Tommy Novak: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:45) Connor Dewar: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:42) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:35) Tommy Novak: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:43) Ryan Shea: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:46) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:40) Erik Karlsson: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:45) Connor Dewar: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:04) K'Andre Miller: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:49) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:47) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 13:49) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:01) Ville Koivunen: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:20) Noel Acciari: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:59) Sean Walker: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:27) Sean Walker: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:29) Taylor Hall: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:58) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:15) Eric Robinson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:50) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:07) Mike Reilly: wrist, 182 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:00) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:07) Rutger McGroarty: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:13) Jordan Staal: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:10) William Carrier: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:36) Joel Nystrom: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:47) Ville Koivunen: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:34) Ryan Shea: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:39) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:58) Joel Nystrom: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:04) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:57) Taylor Hall: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:31) Jack St. Ivany: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:25) William Carrier: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:43) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:02) Joel Nystrom: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:49) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:50) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:15) Ville Koivunen: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:16) Sidney Crosby: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 3:46) Justin Brazeau: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:07) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 17:12) Tommy Novak: GOAL, wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:08) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:08) Mark Jankowski: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:25)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
50 Eric Robinson 000 -1 80.42 3118:06
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 000 -1 30.20 2117:13
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 0 40.12 0016:28
53 Jackson Blake 000 -1 10.10 0115:28
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 20.05 0114:53
28 William Carrier 000 -1 30.04 6014:45
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 30.15 0014:22
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -1 20.17 0013:52
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -2 40.08 1013:50
77 Mark Jankowski 101 0 40.30 0113:29
11 Jordan Staal 000 -1 10.04 1112:33
48 Jordan Martinook 000 -1 10.00 1012:31
Defense
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 -2 30.00 2222:39
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -3 50.01 1221:28
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 70.18 0120:53
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 -1 30.00 2119:17
64 Joel Nystrom 011 0 70.03 0217:54
6 Mike Reilly 011 +1 30.16 2117:47
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 28523 .821 2.93 -2.07

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
87 Sidney Crosby 101 +2 50.47 0218:22
67 Rickard Rakell 011 +1 30.07 2017:07
17 Bryan Rust 022 +1 30.21 0117:04
52 Noel Acciari 000 +1 40.24 0316:28
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 60.25 1215:44
18 Tommy Novak 112 +1 40.06 0114:39
39 Anthony Mantha 202 +2 40.46 0014:23
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 10.09 1014:21
41 Ville Koivunen 000 0 30.23 0114:18
16 Justin Brazeau 112 +1 40.41 1113:48
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 10.00 0013:38
2 Rutger McGroarty 000 0 20.19 0212:16
Defense
58 Kris Letang 000 0 40.06 2122:32
27 Brett Kulak 011 +1 20.00 0121:58
65 Erik Karlsson 022 +3 70.08 0119:40
6 Jack St. Ivany 000 0 20.02 4318:06
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 +2 20.02 2018:03
6 Ryan Shea 000 0 40.06 2017:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 28127 .964 2.07 +1.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Mark Jankowski L +1.22 +0.75 +0.20 +0.23 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 — 13:29
64 Joel Nystrom D +1.09 +0.70 +0.02 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:54
6 Mike Reilly D +1.02 +0.55 +0.10 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:47
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.19 0.00 +0.08 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 16:28
71 Taylor Hall L +0.19 0.00 +0.03 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:53
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C +0.02 0.00 +0.13 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:13
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.09 0.00 +0.10 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:22
53 Jackson Blake R -0.11 0.00 +0.06 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 15:28
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:17
26 Sean Walker D -0.32 0.00 +0.12 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:53
28 William Carrier L -0.36 0.00 +0.03 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:45
11 Jordan Staal C -0.38 0.00 +0.03 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:33
48 Jordan Martinook L -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:31
50 Eric Robinson L -0.39 0.00 +0.27 -0.70 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:06
20 Sebastian Aho C -0.66 0.00 +0.11 -0.69 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 13:52
37 Andrei Svechnikov R -0.86 0.00 +0.05 -0.86 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:50
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.95 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:39
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.98 0.00 +0.01 -0.94 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:28
31 Frederik Andersen G -2.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.07 60:00

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Anthony Mantha R +2.41 +1.50 +0.30 +0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:23
16 Justin Brazeau R +2.22 +1.45 +0.27 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 13:48
65 Erik Karlsson D +2.06 +1.10 +0.05 +0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:40
18 Tommy Novak C +1.68 +1.30 +0.04 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 14:39
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.62 +0.75 +0.31 +0.34 0.00 +0.08 +0.14 — 18:22
17 Bryan Rust R +1.46 +1.25 +0.14 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:04
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.33 +0.70 +0.01 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:03
74 Stuart Skinner G +1.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.07 60:00
77 Brett Kulak D +0.99 +0.70 0.00 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 21:58
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.91 +0.70 +0.05 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:07
55 Noel Acciari C +0.79 0.00 +0.16 +0.53 0.00 -0.04 +0.15 — 16:28
19 Connor Dewar C +0.66 0.00 +0.16 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:44
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.58 0.00 +0.06 +0.36 +0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 14:21
3 Jack St. Ivany D +0.41 0.00 +0.02 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 18:06
41 Ville Koivunen R +0.30 0.00 +0.15 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:18
2 Rutger McGroarty R +0.24 0.00 +0.12 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 12:16
5 Ryan Shea D +0.19 0.00 +0.04 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:33
81 Ben Kindel C +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.11 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:38
58 Kris Letang D +0.01 0.00 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 22:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.