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Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–2 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 310 4 19
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 200 2 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:35 VGK Mark Stone (10)PP Pavel Dorofeyev (12), Noah Hanifin (12) · tip-in xG 0.26 0–1 ▶
9:06 VGK Ben Hutton (6) Tomas Hertl (15), Pavel Dorofeyev (13) · tip-in xG 0.10 0–2 ▶
11:20 NSH Nick Perbix (3) Luke Evangelista (22) · wrist xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
15:37 NSH Steven Stamkos (18)PP Filip Forsberg (15), Luke Evangelista (23) · wrist xG 0.07 2–2 ▶
16:21 NSH Reid Schaefer (4) Brady Skjei (12), Michael McCarron (6) · snap xG 0.02 3–2 ▶
2nd Period
11:52 NSH Michael Bunting (10)PP Nick Blankenburg (13), Erik Haula (16) · tip-in xG 0.11 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 34%Deserve to win66% VGK
NSHVGK
2.34Expected goals2.93
4Goals (no shootout)2
0.98Expected goals, 5 on 51.67
48Shot attempts69
35Unblocked attempts48
19Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:21 VGK Goalie Goalie · Schmid −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.75 xG, 9 shots on goal
3rd Period
1:30 VGK No shift No shift · McNabb, 22:10 on the bench
No shift after 7:49 of the 2nd; 14 shifts (10:24) before that
2:29 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 61–39%
VGK had led since 3:28 of the 1st, by as much as 72%
15:25 VGK Deserve to win Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 61–39%
NSH had led since 2:29 of the 3rd, by as much as 61%
15:27 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 4–2
With 4:33 left
15:30 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.34–0.29
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:30 to 15:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Brandon Saad: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:31) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:36) Keegan Kolesar: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:28) Adam Wilsby: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:51) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:27) Tyson Jost: between-legs, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:59) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:57) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:14) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:47) Colton Sissons: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:28) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:53) Cole Smith: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:54) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:16) Nick Perbix: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:49) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:52) Filip Forsberg: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:03) Fedor Svechkov: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:42) Filip Forsberg: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:02) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:50) Tomas Hertl: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:16) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:20) Ivan Barbashev: tip-in, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:02) Mark Stone: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:28) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:35) Brandon Saad: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:44) Erik Haula: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 5:28) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:25) Roman Josi: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:01) Steven Stamkos: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 9:03) Michael Bunting: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:19) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:32) Michael McCarron: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:12) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:29) Brandon Saad: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:19) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:10) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:24) Michael McCarron: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:52) Michael McCarron: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:00) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:30) Mark Stone: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:08) Brady Skjei: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:29) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:57) Fedor Svechkov: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:29) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:28) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:43) Brandon Saad: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 5:54) Brandon Saad: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:54) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:30) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 6:35) Mitch Marner: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:18) Ben Hutton: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:20) Cole Smith: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 7:31) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:06) Reilly Smith: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:24) Mitch Marner: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:32) Reilly Smith: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:43) Mitch Marner: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:52) Roman Josi: wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:56) Ben Hutton: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:28) Erik Haula: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:38) Erik Haula: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:43) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:23) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:25) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:48) Noah Hanifin: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:48) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:02) Noah Hanifin: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:08) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:14) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:25) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:27) Michael McCarron: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 17:46) Colton Sissons: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:25) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:31) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:34) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:59) Reilly Smith: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:07) Mitch Marner: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:52) Mark Stone: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 5:35) Ben Hutton: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:06) Nick Perbix: GOAL, wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:20) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:37) Reid Schaefer: GOAL, snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:21) Michael Bunting: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 11:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 0 20.16 0223:13
9 Filip Forsberg 011 0 70.28 2019:56
91 Steven Stamkos 101 0 20.26 0019:32
56 Erik Haula 011 +1 30.23 2018:16
77 Luke Evangelista 022 +1 30.12 0017:19
22 Cole Smith 000 +1 20.23 8115:51
58 Michael Bunting 101 +1 40.15 1014:21
47 Michael McCarron 011 +1 40.40 6012:44
49 Reid Schaefer 101 +1 20.07 3110:33
71 Matthew Wood 000 -1 10.00 0009:22
17 Tyson Jost 000 -1 20.06 1009:03
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 -1 20.15 1008:24
Defense
76 Brady Skjei 011 +1 10.01 0224:08
59 Roman Josi 000 0 60.05 0420:31
48 Nick Perbix 101 0 40.11 1519:45
3 Nick Blankenburg 011 0 00.00 0118:17
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 20.00 1117:34
2 Adam Wilsby 000 +1 10.04 0117:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 31229 .935 2.93 +0.93

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 000 -1 50.10 0023:39
61 Mark Stone 101 -1 40.44 2021:33
48 Tomas Hertl 011 +1 50.21 4019:03
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 022 +1 90.50 0018:36
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 0 40.13 5016:05
20 Brandon Saad 000 0 50.59 1014:46
19 Reilly Smith 000 -2 40.16 0014:34
21 Brett Howden 000 -1 00.00 1114:16
42 Braeden Bowman 000 -1 40.25 0012:36
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 40.06 0112:21
10 Alexander Holtz 000 +1 20.00 0009:45
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 20.13 4107:30
Defense
15 Noah Hanifin 011 0 80.20 1029:59
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 50.05 2020:13
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 -1 10.00 0219:32
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -1 30.01 5317:02
17 Ben Hutton 101 0 40.10 1216:19
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 00.00 0110:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 19415 .789 2.02 -1.98

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
58 Michael Bunting L +1.59 +0.75 +0.10 +0.43 +0.30 -0.01 +0.02 — 14:21
77 Luke Evangelista R +1.40 +1.25 +0.08 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:19
56 Erik Haula L +0.98 +0.55 +0.15 +0.44 -0.15 +0.02 -0.04 — 18:16
29 Justus Annunen G +0.93 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.93 60:00
48 Nick Perbix D +0.89 +0.75 +0.07 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 19:45
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.81 +0.70 +0.18 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:56
91 Steven Stamkos C +0.80 +0.75 +0.17 -0.14 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 19:32
76 Brady Skjei D +0.70 +0.70 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:08
47 Michael McCarron C +0.67 +0.55 +0.26 -0.02 -0.15 +0.01 +0.02 — 12:44
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.58 +0.75 +0.05 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:33
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.38 +0.70 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:17
59 Roman Josi D +0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 20:31
36 Cole Smith R +0.07 0.00 +0.15 -0.25 +0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 15:51
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:00
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -0.16 0.00 +0.10 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:13
71 Matthew Wood R -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 9:22
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:34
40 Fedor Svechkov C -0.42 0.00 +0.10 -0.66 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 8:24
17 Tyson Jost C -0.62 0.00 +0.04 -0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:03

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +2.04 +1.25 +0.33 +0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:36
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.48 +0.55 +0.13 +0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 29:59
17 Ben Hutton D +1.38 +0.75 +0.07 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:19
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.29 +0.70 +0.14 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:03
61 Mark Stone R +0.93 +0.75 +0.29 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:33
20 Brandon Saad L +0.75 0.00 +0.39 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:46
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.47 0.00 +0.03 +0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:13
10 Colton Sissons C +0.46 0.00 +0.04 +0.21 +0.15 +0.03 +0.03 — 12:21
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.35 0.00 +0.09 +0.11 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:05
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.21 0.00 +0.16 +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:36
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 17:02
26 Alexander Holtz R +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 9:45
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.05 0.00 +0.09 +0.20 -0.30 +0.01 +0.05 — 7:30
19 Reilly Smith R +0.01 0.00 +0.11 -0.14 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 14:34
93 Mitch Marner R -0.08 0.00 +0.06 -0.07 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 23:39
3 Brayden McNabb D -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 10:24
2 Zach Whitecloud D -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:32
21 Brett Howden C -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.05 +0.03 — 14:16
40 Akira Schmid G -1.98 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.98 54:52

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.