| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 33 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 35 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:18 | Mason Marchment (8) Kirill Marchenko (17), Dysin Mayo (1) · wrist xG 0.45 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 13:41 | Charlie Coyle (6) Boone Jenner (11), Cole Sillinger (15) · snap xG 0.25 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:49 | Nico Hischier (11)PP Luke Hughes (17), Jack Hughes (11) · snap xG 0.16 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 3:44 | Arseny Gritsyuk (8) Timo Meier (13), Jonas Siegenthaler (3) · snap xG 0.04 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 4:45 | Luke Hughes (4) Connor Brown (8), Ondrej Palat (6) · snap xG 0.14 | 3–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NJD | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.58 | Expected goals | 4.30 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.82 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.56 |
| 54 | Shot attempts | 73 |
| 43 | Unblocked attempts | 58 |
| 33 | Shots on goal | 35 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:40 | CBJ | No shift | No shift · Wood, 42:42 on the bench
No shift after 8:25 of the 1st; 3 shifts (2:51) before that |
| 13:50 | CBJ | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NJD 1.68–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:40 to 17:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 18:13 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 3–2
With 1:47 left |
| 19:00 | NJD | Goalie | Goalie · Allen +2.1 goals saved
2 goals on 4.07 xG, 33 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 0 | 19:39 |
| 86 | Jack Hughes | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 8 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 |
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 18:35 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.20 | 1 | 0 | 17:41 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.20 | 3 | 0 | 14:51 |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 14:19 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 1 | 14:07 |
| 12 | Cody Glass | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 1 | 13:18 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 06:54 |
| 11 | Stefan Noesen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 06:53 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 22 | Brett Pesce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 2 | 25:18 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 22:58 |
| 43 | Luke Hughes | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2 | 21:27 |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 8 | 0.06 | 3 | 0 | 21:04 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 18:08 |
| 6 | Colton White | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11:32 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | 35 | 2 | 33 | .943 | 4.30 | +2.30 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 11 | 0.74 | 1 | 1 | 25:11 |
| 27 | Mason Marchment | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 8 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 21:15 |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 20:45 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.66 | 3 | 1 | 18:22 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 8 | 0 | 16:28 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.25 | 2 | 0 | 14:54 |
| 50 | Brendan Gaunce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 1 | 13:27 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 12:53 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 |
| 21 | Zachary Aston-Reese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.31 | 4 | 1 | 08:48 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 02:51 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 4 | 29:33 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.09 | 1 | 2 | 22:41 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 |
| 2 | Jake Christiansen | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
| 37 | Dysin Mayo | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 09:36 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 33 | 3 | 30 | .909 | 2.25 | -0.75 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 Jake Allen G | +2.30 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.30 | 59:41 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | +1.09 | +0.75 | +0.31 | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 19:39 |
| 43 Luke Hughes D | +1.04 | +1.45 | +0.09 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 21:27 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | +0.65 | +0.70 | +0.01 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 18:35 |
| 18 Ondrej Palat L | +0.44 | +0.55 | +0.04 | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 14:19 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.29 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 17:41 |
| 86 Jack Hughes C | +0.32 | +0.55 | +0.24 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:26 |
| 11 Stefan Noesen R | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:53 |
| 14 Luke Glendening C | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.16 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.02 | — | 11:41 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | -0.18 | +0.75 | +0.24 | -1.21 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 14:07 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:54 |
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 18:08 |
| 12 Cody Glass C | -0.28 | 0.00 | +0.22 | -0.61 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.05 | — | 13:18 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | -0.48 | +0.55 | +0.01 | -1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 22:58 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.28 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 21:04 |
| 22 Brett Pesce D | -0.65 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:18 |
| 45 Colton White D | -0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.87 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 11:32 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | -1.14 | +0.70 | +0.13 | -1.94 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:51 |
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | -1.16 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:28 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | +2.65 | +0.75 | +0.45 | +1.29 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:51 |
| 17 Mason Marchment L | +2.35 | +0.75 | +0.67 | +0.83 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 21:15 |
| 37 Dysin Mayo D | +2.06 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 9:36 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | +1.99 | +0.70 | +0.43 | +0.80 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 18:22 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | +1.82 | +0.55 | +0.17 | +1.11 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.04 | — | 14:54 |
| 86 Kirill Marchenko R | +1.60 | +0.70 | +0.48 | +0.56 | -0.15 | +0.01 | -0.01 | — | 25:11 |
| 2 Jake Christiansen D | +1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 10:13 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +1.16 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | — | 29:33 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 22:41 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | +0.69 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 20:45 |
| 24 Mathieu Olivier R | +0.45 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:28 |
| 27 Zachary Aston-Reese L | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 8:48 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:53 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:29 |
| 16 Brendan Gaunce C | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:27 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 2:51 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 21:32 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | -0.58 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:54 |
| 73 Jet Greaves G | -0.75 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.75 | 58:13 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.