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St. Louis BluesSTL 1–6 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 001 1 13
Colorado AvalancheCOL 411 6 43

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:00 COL Valeri Nichushkin (9) Artturi Lehkonen (18), Brock Nelson (14) · wrist xG 0.04 0–1 ▶
3:13 COL Nathan MacKinnon (33) Josh Manson (11), Devon Toews (12) · wrist xG 0.13 0–2 ▶
3:26 COL Valeri Nichushkin (10) Josh Manson (12), Brent Burns (15) · snap xG 0.17 0–3 ▶
4:39 COL Nathan MacKinnon (34) Martin Necas (32), Gabriel Landeskog (15) · slap xG 0.06 0–4 ▶
2nd Period
9:41 COL Brock Nelson (16)PP Cale Makar (33), Nathan MacKinnon (35) · slap xG 0.12 0–5 ▶
3rd Period
14:32 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (6) Matthew Kessel (1) · snap xG 0.01 1–5 ▶
16:06 COL Valeri Nichushkin (11) Sam Malinski (19), Nathan MacKinnon (36) · wrist xG 0.16 1–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 15%Deserve to win85% COL
STLCOL
1.37Expected goals3.54
1Goals (no shootout)6
1.08Expected goals, 5 on 53.15
28Shot attempts79
21Unblocked attempts55
13Shots on goal43

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
3:26 STL Goalie Goalie · Binnington −2.4 goals saved
3 goals on 0.59 xG, 8 shots on goal
10:00 COL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.16–0.01
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 1st; goals 4–0

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 0:58) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:39) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:46) Brent Burns: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:56) Josh Manson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:24) Josh Manson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:08) Ross Colton: slap, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:44) Samuel Girard: slap, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:16) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 6:54) Brent Burns: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:19) Martin Necas: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:26) Tyler Tucker: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:08) Samuel Girard: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:29) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:26) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:10) Brock Nelson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:24) Otto Stenberg: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:02) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:49) Robert Thomas: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:23) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 13:29) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:14) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:59) Tyler Tucker: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:01) Jonatan Berggren: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:10) Brent Burns: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:07) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:26) Devon Toews: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:51) Josh Manson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:42) Sam Malinski: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:34) Cale Makar: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:11) Cale Makar: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:19) Philip Broberg: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:30) Justin Faulk: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:13) Martin Necas: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:21) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 4:24) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:45) Sam Malinski: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:41) Sam Malinski: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:51) Devon Toews: wrist, 183 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:09) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:04) Josh Manson: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:14) Brent Burns: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:25) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 15:10) Martin Necas: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:19) Jack Drury: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:38) Devon Toews: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:48) Otto Stenberg: backhand, 116 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:53) Colton Parayko: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:00) Cale Makar: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:41) Parker Kelly: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:34) Martin Necas: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:42) Jack Drury: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:53) Parker Kelly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 1:57) Brent Burns: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:00) Josh Manson: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:07) Devon Toews: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:48) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:11) Sam Malinski: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:04) Jordan Kyrou: poke, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:57) Brayden Schenn: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:13) Martin Necas: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:42) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:46) Cam Fowler: snap, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:34) Colton Parayko: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:43) Martin Necas: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:07) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 14:17) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 15:00) Otto Stenberg: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:01) Ross Colton: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:54) Valeri Nichushkin: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:00) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:13) Valeri Nichushkin: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 3:26) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, slap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:39) Brock Nelson: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:41) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:32) Valeri Nichushkin: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 16:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 000 -2 10.07 0217:56
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -1 10.18 0216:47
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 101 +1 20.19 2015:49
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 -3 30.18 0315:30
10 Brayden Schenn 000 -2 10.06 4015:22
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -1 00.00 1014:41
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 0 10.08 1014:21
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 0 30.22 0014:09
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 -1 00.00 4014:00
63 Jake Neighbours 000 -3 00.00 1313:51
28 Otto Stenberg 000 +1 30.10 2313:33
21 Robby Fabbri 000 -1 00.00 2113:08
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 -3 10.05 0122:09
72 Justin Faulk 000 -1 40.06 0221:53
55 Colton Parayko 000 -3 30.02 2220:18
17 Cam Fowler 000 -1 10.00 0119:29
4 Matthew Kessel 011 0 20.16 2316:03
75 Tyler Tucker 000 0 20.01 1115:57
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 43637 .860 3.54 -2.46

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 224 +3 80.92 0017:12
88 Martin Necas 011 +2 60.46 0017:11
43 Valeri Nichushkin 303 +3 60.60 1117:05
11 Brock Nelson 112 +2 40.20 0016:48
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 50.18 0216:39
62 Artturi Lehkonen 011 +3 20.07 1014:44
92 Gabriel Landeskog 011 +2 20.00 1014:08
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 20.11 0013:58
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 20.09 1113:27
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 20.22 1012:54
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 00.00 0011:50
95 Victor Olofsson 000 -1 00.00 0011:39
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 +1 80.18 0020:59
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 20.02 0120:26
70 Sam Malinski 011 +1 50.13 1119:47
7 Devon Toews 011 +2 40.10 0019:33
84 Brent Burns 011 +1 110.11 0018:06
42 Josh Manson 022 +2 100.16 0117:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 13112 .923 1.37 +0.37

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +1.12 +0.75 +0.12 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:49
51 Matthew Kessel D +0.77 +0.70 +0.11 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 16:03
28 Otto Stenberg C +0.39 0.00 +0.06 +0.17 0.00 -0.01 +0.17 — 13:33
25 Jordan Kyrou R -0.04 0.00 +0.14 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:09
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:57
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.37 0.00 +0.12 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:47
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.56 0.00 +0.05 -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:21
18 Robert Thomas C -0.67 0.00 +0.05 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:56
9 Robby Fabbri C -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.87 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:08
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:00
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.78 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 14:41
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R -1.03 0.00 +0.11 -1.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 15:30
55 Colton Parayko D -1.14 0.00 +0.01 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:18
6 Philip Broberg D -1.21 0.00 +0.03 -1.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:09
17 Cam Fowler D -1.43 0.00 0.00 -1.46 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:29
10 Brayden Schenn C -1.50 0.00 +0.04 -1.47 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 15:22
72 Justin Faulk D -1.52 0.00 +0.04 -1.48 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 21:53
63 Jake Neighbours L -1.71 0.00 0.00 -1.68 -0.15 -0.01 +0.13 — 13:51
50 Jordan Binnington G -2.46 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.46 59:39

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +4.73 +2.60 +0.59 +1.57 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 — 17:12
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +4.09 +2.25 +0.39 +1.29 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 17:05
42 Josh Manson D +3.20 +1.40 +0.10 +1.79 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:59
11 Brock Nelson C +2.54 +1.30 +0.13 +1.09 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 16:48
84 Brent Burns D +2.15 +0.55 +0.07 +1.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:06
88 Martin Necas C +2.12 +0.70 +0.30 +1.10 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:11
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +2.07 +0.70 +0.05 +1.34 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:44
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +2.00 +0.55 0.00 +1.23 +0.15 +0.05 +0.02 — 14:08
70 Sam Malinski D +1.87 +0.70 +0.08 +0.90 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 19:47
7 Devon Toews D +1.30 +0.55 +0.06 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:33
8 Cale Makar D +1.02 +0.70 +0.12 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:59
49 Samuel Girard D +0.71 0.00 +0.01 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:26
17 Parker Kelly C +0.44 0.00 +0.11 +0.41 -0.15 -0.03 +0.10 — 16:39
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G +0.37 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.37 59:35
20 Ross Colton C +0.35 0.00 +0.14 +0.23 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 12:54
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:50
18 Jack Drury C +0.21 0.00 +0.07 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:58
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.01 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 -0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 13:27
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.