| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 29 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 36 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:28 | David Pastrnak (16)PP Elias Lindholm (19), Charlie McAvoy (19) · wrist xG 0.05 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 18:13 | Casey Mittelstadt (9) Viktor Arvidsson (9), Hampus Lindholm (10) · wrist xG 0.06 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 19:19 | Zach Hyman (12) Connor McDavid (46), Leon Draisaitl (37) · wrist xG 0.07 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 7:05 | Hampus Lindholm (3) Fraser Minten (8), Viktor Arvidsson (10) · wrist xG 0.03 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 18:19 | Jonathan Aspirot (2) David Pastrnak (27) · snap xG 0.13 | 4–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:20 | Elias Lindholm (6) Morgan Geekie (16), Alex Steeves (3) · wrist xG 0.05 | 5–1 ▶ | |
| 7:22 | Jack Roslovic (12) Darnell Nurse (9), Connor Ingram (1) · wrist xG 0.04 | 5–2 ▶ | |
| 14:34 | David Pastrnak (17) Fraser Minten (9), Marat Khusnutdinov (8) · slap xG 0.12 | 6–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| BOS | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.28 | Expected goals | 4.04 |
| 6 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.63 |
| 55 | Shot attempts | 60 |
| 41 | Unblocked attempts | 46 |
| 29 | Shots on goal | 36 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 17:10 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced BOS 1.24–0.14
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:30 to 17:30 of the 1st; neither team scored |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 18:19 | EDM | Goalie | Goalie · Ingram −2.6 goals saved
4 goals on 1.40 xG, 20 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:21 | BOS | Goalie | Goalie · Swayman +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.12 xG, 28 shots on goal |
| 8:20 | EDM | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced BOS 1.24–0.16
In xG over 10 minutes, 18:30 of the 2nd to 8:30 of the 3rd; goals 1–1 |
| 10:30 | EDM | No shift | No shift · Mangiapane, 11:24 on the bench
No shift from 18:19 of the 2nd to 11:50 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:32) before that |
| 14:34 | EDM | Goalie | Goalie · Ingram −4.1 goals saved
6 goals on 1.87 xG, 26 shots on goal |
| 15:20 | BOS | No shift | No shift · Eyssimont, 10:23 on the bench
No shift from 2:54 to 15:24 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:35) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 88 | David Pastrnak | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 11 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 |
| 93 | Fraser Minten | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 17:51 |
| 28 | Elias Lindholm | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| 39 | Morgan Geekie | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.11 | 2 | 0 | 16:05 |
| 92 | Marat Khusnutdinov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| 18 | Pavel Zacha | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 14:46 |
| 11 | Casey Mittelstadt | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 |
| 33 | Viktor Arvidsson | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 |
| 52 | Sean Kuraly | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 0 | 12:59 |
| 21 | Alex Steeves | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 10:56 |
| 47 | Mark Kastelic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 1 | 0 | 10:33 |
| 81 | Michael Eyssimont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 07:57 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 91 | Nikita Zadorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 2 | 3 | 23:18 |
| 73 | Charlie McAvoy | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 4 | 22:30 |
| 27 | Hampus Lindholm | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0.15 | 0 | 2 | 21:20 |
| 20 | Andrew Peeke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 19:33 |
| 45 | Jonathan Aspirot | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| 6 | Mason Lohrei | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 14:21 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman | 36 | 2 | 34 | .944 | 4.04 | +2.04 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 0.99 | 0 | 1 | 24:35 |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 11 | 0.71 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 16:01 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.14 | 4 | 0 | 15:55 |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 12:17 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 11:17 |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 11:05 |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 10:51 |
| 26 | Andrew Mangiapane | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 07:31 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.05 | 1 | 2 | 27:47 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 22:58 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 2 | 2 | 21:27 |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 15:27 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 2 | 14:02 |
| 75 | Alec Regula | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 10:56 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram | 29 | 6 | 23 | .793 | 2.28 | -3.72 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 David Pastrnak R | +2.31 | +2.20 | +0.44 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 20:03 |
| 27 Hampus Lindholm D | +2.05 | +1.30 | +0.09 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 21:20 |
| 1 Jeremy Swayman G | +2.04 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.04 | 60:00 |
| 93 Fraser Minten C | +1.58 | +1.40 | +0.04 | +0.31 | -0.15 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 17:51 |
| 71 Viktor Arvidsson L | +1.52 | +1.25 | +0.16 | -0.02 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:13 |
| 45 Jonathan Aspirot D | +1.36 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:11 |
| 11 Casey Mittelstadt C | +1.11 | +0.75 | +0.07 | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.04 | — | 13:40 |
| 28 Elias Lindholm C | +0.72 | +1.45 | +0.10 | -0.67 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:34 |
| 21 Alex Steeves C | +0.65 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.12 | — | 10:56 |
| 92 Marat Khusnutdinov C | +0.25 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.43 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:10 |
| 26 Andrew Peeke D | +0.22 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:33 |
| 39 Morgan Geekie C | +0.09 | +0.70 | +0.07 | -0.55 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:05 |
| 47 Mark Kastelic C | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | — | 10:33 |
| 6 Mason Lohrei D | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:21 |
| 81 Michael Eyssimont C | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:57 |
| 18 Pavel Zacha C | -0.21 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.29 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 14:46 |
| 52 Sean Kuraly C | -0.42 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.43 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.02 | — | 12:59 |
| 73 Charlie McAvoy D | -0.84 | +0.55 | +0.05 | -1.47 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 22:30 |
| 91 Nikita Zadorov D | -1.20 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 23:18 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +2.87 | +0.70 | +0.64 | +1.47 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 24:35 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +2.64 | +0.75 | +0.61 | +1.42 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:32 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | +1.67 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +1.39 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:06 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +1.50 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +1.07 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 27:47 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +1.13 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 21:27 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | +0.91 | +0.75 | +0.15 | -0.18 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:01 |
| 29 Leon Draisaitl C | +0.69 | +0.55 | +0.46 | -0.28 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 23:21 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.26 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:58 |
| 24 Spencer Stastney D | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 15:27 |
| 19 Adam Henrique C | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.11 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 12:17 |
| 46 Max Jones L | +0.17 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:21 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 14:02 |
| 10 Trent Frederic C | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 10:51 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 11:17 |
| 88 Andrew Mangiapane L | -0.23 | 0.00 | +0.16 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 7:31 |
| 75 Alec Regula D | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 10:56 |
| 13 Mattias Janmark C | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:05 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | -0.47 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.51 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 15:55 |
| 39 Connor Ingram G | -3.32 | +0.55 | — | — | -0.15 | — | — | -3.72 | 59:34 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.