hockeystats.io

Detroit Red WingsDET 3–4 Final/OT Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET 1110 3 27
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 2011 4 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:08 PIT Sidney Crosby (22)PP Anthony Mantha (14), Erik Karlsson (26) · slap xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
5:46 PIT Sidney Crosby (23) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.22 0–2 ▶
17:46 DET James van Riemsdyk (10)PP Marco Kasper (3), Simon Edvinsson (10) · tip-in xG 0.13 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
1:01 DET Andrew Copp (5) Ben Chiarot (5), Patrick Kane (18) · wrist xG 0.15 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
15:51 PIT Blake Lizotte (4) Erik Karlsson (27), Parker Wotherspoon (11) · wrist xG 0.05 2–3 ▶
17:02 DET Alex DeBrincat (21)PP Lucas Raymond (33), Dylan Larkin (17) · backhand xG 0.48 3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:58 PIT Kris Letang (3) Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (20) · slap xG 0.15 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 55%Deserve to win45% PIT
DETPIT
2.80Expected goals2.52
3Goals (no shootout)4
0.97Expected goals, 5 on 51.87
68Shot attempts66
47Unblocked attempts46
27Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:20 DET Deserve to win Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 62–38%
PIT had led since 5:46 of the 1st, by as much as 63%

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Lucas Raymond: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:25) Jack St. Ivany: wrist, 158 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:17) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:38) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:24) Andrew Copp: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:25) Rickard Rakell: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:08) Michael Rasmussen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:00) Albert Johansson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:51) Patrick Kane: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:58) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:24) Bryan Rust: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:00) Dylan Larkin: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:18) Patrick Kane: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:37) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:42) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:05) Moritz Seider: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:45) Bryan Rust: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:26) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:44) Albert Johansson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:20) Michael Rasmussen: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:36) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 15:47) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:07) James van Riemsdyk: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:31) Brett Kulak: slap, 119 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:48) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:42) Emmitt Finnie: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:01) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:02) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:16) Emmitt Finnie: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:20) Tommy Novak: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:20) J.T. Compher: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:39) Emmitt Finnie: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:12) Simon Edvinsson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:28) Connor Dewar: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:37) Blake Lizotte: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:53) Connor Dewar: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:15) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:51) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:55) Justin Brazeau: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:20) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:36) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:56) Lucas Raymond: tip-in, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:35) Patrick Kane: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:37) James van Riemsdyk: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:06) James van Riemsdyk: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:18) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:28) Patrick Kane: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:35) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:42) Rickard Rakell: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:44) Andrew Copp: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:21) Connor Dewar: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:47) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:59) Bryan Rust: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:12) Brett Kulak: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:33) Kris Letang: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:40) Jacob Bernard-Docker: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:44) Albert Johansson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:49) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:13) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:46) Tommy Novak: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:09) Ben Kindel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:30) J.T. Compher: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 2:13) Anthony Mantha: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:03) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:55) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:19) Kris Letang: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:33) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:32) Bryan Rust: wrist, 151 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:46) Alex DeBrincat: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:19) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:09) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:46) Bryan Rust: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:16) Bryan Rust: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:18) Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:33) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:19) Brett Kulak: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:07) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:09) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:35) Bryan Rust: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:37) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:11) Noel Acciari: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:19) Michael Rasmussen: tip-in, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:10) Lucas Raymond: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:16) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:39) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:01) Erik Karlsson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 0:24) Sidney Crosby: GOAL, slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:08) Sidney Crosby: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 5:46) James van Riemsdyk: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:46) Andrew Copp: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:01) Blake Lizotte: GOAL, wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:51) Alex DeBrincat: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.48 (P3 17:02) Kris Letang: GOAL, slap, 32 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 0:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Dylan Larkin 011 -1 50.25 0123:32
23 Lucas Raymond 011 -1 70.23 2021:58
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 -2 40.33 0017:21
93 Alex DeBrincat 101 0 50.68 3017:08
18 Andrew Copp 101 +1 30.31 1216:46
37 J.T. Compher 000 -1 40.17 0016:41
88 Patrick Kane 011 +1 70.18 0115:41
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 -1 60.12 1015:39
22 Mason Appleton 000 -1 00.00 2015:02
21 James van Riemsdyk 101 0 60.38 1010:01
92 Marco Kasper 011 0 00.00 4109:06
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 000 0 30.02 0326:10
77 Simon Edvinsson 011 -2 70.06 1422:24
8 Ben Chiarot 011 -1 10.00 3219:54
20 Albert Johansson 000 0 50.03 0115:12
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 0 40.03 0012:43
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 10.02 3211:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Cam Talbot 31427 .871 2.52 -1.48

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 011 +2 100.31 0220:56
87 Sidney Crosby 213 +2 40.30 0018:27
67 Rickard Rakell 000 +1 70.42 0118:10
52 Noel Acciari 000 +1 30.15 0116:27
19 Connor Dewar 000 +1 30.06 3116:02
46 Blake Lizotte 101 +1 30.13 1014:29
81 Ben Kindel 000 -1 10.03 0013:07
39 Anthony Mantha 011 0 10.01 1011:42
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 60.50 0011:07
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 -1 30.01 3111:06
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 40.09 0110:53
2 Rutger McGroarty 000 -1 00.00 1008:44
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 022 0 50.15 1222:34
58 Kris Letang 101 +1 50.28 1122:16
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 40.02 0220:08
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 0 40.04 2319:23
6 Ryan Shea 000 +1 10.00 0217:21
6 Jack St. Ivany 000 +1 20.00 2115:47
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 27324 .889 2.80 -0.20

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R +1.56 +0.75 +0.44 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:08
18 Andrew Copp C +1.48 +0.75 +0.20 +0.46 0.00 -0.03 +0.10 — 16:46
88 Patrick Kane R +1.38 +0.55 +0.11 +0.38 +0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 15:41
21 James van Riemsdyk L +0.92 +0.75 +0.24 -0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:01
92 Marco Kasper C +0.56 +0.70 0.00 -0.30 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 9:06
77 Simon Edvinsson D +0.39 +0.55 +0.04 -0.55 +0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 22:24
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D +0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:40
20 Albert Johansson D -0.06 0.00 +0.02 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:12
71 Dylan Larkin C -0.11 +0.55 +0.16 -0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:32
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D -0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:43
53 Moritz Seider D -0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 26:10
58 Emmitt Finnie C -0.16 0.00 +0.21 -0.38 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 17:21
29 Nate Danielson C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 11:44
23 Lucas Raymond L -0.29 +0.70 +0.15 -0.85 -0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 21:58
37 J.T. Compher L -0.33 0.00 +0.11 -0.58 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 16:41
8 Ben Chiarot D -0.53 +0.70 0.00 -1.29 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:54
27 Michael Rasmussen C -0.58 0.00 +0.08 -0.81 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:39
22 Mason Appleton C -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:02
39 Cam Talbot G -1.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.48 60:46

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
87 Sidney Crosby C +3.15 +2.20 +0.20 +0.88 -0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 18:27
65 Erik Karlsson D +1.90 +1.25 +0.10 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:34
58 Kris Letang D +1.60 +0.75 +0.18 +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:16
17 Bryan Rust R +1.48 +0.55 +0.20 +0.78 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:56
39 Anthony Mantha R +1.33 +0.70 0.00 +0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:42
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.25 0.00 +0.28 +0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:10
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.11 +0.55 +0.03 +0.53 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 19:23
16 Justin Brazeau R +1.04 0.00 +0.32 +0.57 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:07
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.94 +0.75 +0.09 +0.27 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 14:29
77 Brett Kulak D +0.54 0.00 +0.01 +0.57 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:08
55 Noel Acciari C +0.43 0.00 +0.10 +0.16 +0.15 -0.03 +0.05 — 16:27
18 Tommy Novak C +0.37 0.00 +0.06 +0.58 -0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 10:53
19 Connor Dewar C +0.24 0.00 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:02
5 Ryan Shea D +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:21
3 Jack St. Ivany D -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.08 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 15:47
37 Arturs Silovs G -0.20 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.20 60:58
81 Ben Kindel C -0.37 0.00 +0.02 -0.58 +0.15 +0.04 0.00 — 13:07
59 Egor Chinakhov R -0.39 0.00 +0.01 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:06
2 Rutger McGroarty R -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 8:44

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.