Tampa Bay LightningTBL 5–3 Final Los Angeles KingsLAK

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 113 5 24
Los Angeles KingsLAK 201 3 20

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:34 TBL Brayden Point (8)PP Jake Guentzel (22), Nikita Kucherov (34) · wrist xG 0.21 1–0 ▶
4:43 LAK Jeff Malott (3) Corey Perry (10) · snap xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
6:14 LAK Andrei Kuzmenko (8)PP Corey Perry (11), Kevin Fiala (13) · snap xG 0.35 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
18:07 TBL Brayden Point (9) Darren Raddysh (21), J.J. Moser (10) · backhand xG 0.19 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:37 LAK Kevin Fiala (14)PP Corey Perry (12), Andrei Kuzmenko (6) · wrist xG 0.16 2–3 ▶
16:41 TBL Anthony Cirelli (11) Brandon Hagel (17), Nikita Kucherov (35) · backhand xG 0.22 3–3 ▶
18:19 TBL Gage Goncalves (4) Jake Guentzel (23), Anthony Cirelli (13) · wrist xG 0.20 4–3 ▶
19:15 TBL Nikita Kucherov (19)EN Darren Raddysh (22) · backhand xG 0.89 5–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 51%Deserve to win49% LAK
TBLLAK
3.83Expected goals2.88
5Goals (no shootout)3
2.27Expected goals, 5 on 51.86
59Shot attempts48
38Unblocked attempts36
24Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:38 LAK Deserve to win Deserve to win · LAK takes the lead, 61–39%
TBL had led since 2:28 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
3rd Period
14:20 LAK No shift No shift · Malott, 14:55 on the bench
No shift from 1:51 to 19:15 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:02) before that
19:01 LAK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Kuemper, down 4–3
With 0:59 left; TBL scored at 19:15 of the 3rd (5–3)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ LAK shoots
Joel Edmundson: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:18) Anthony Cirelli: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:11) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:28) Brayden Point: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 3:03) Quinton Byfield: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:47) Corey Perry: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:10) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:47) Brandt Clarke: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:16) Joel Armia: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:58) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:28) Corey Perry: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 13:22) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:37) Brandon Hagel: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:51) Anthony Cirelli: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:53) Brandt Clarke: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:01) Warren Foegele: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:28) Joel Armia: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:35) Warren Foegele: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:37) Warren Foegele: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:38) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:53) Nikita Kucherov: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 16:17) Brayden Point: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:28) Brayden Point: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:29) Joel Armia: tip-in, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:01) Kevin Fiala: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 1:13) Quinton Byfield: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:16) Brandt Clarke: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:40) Adrian Kempe: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:48) J.J. Moser: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:14) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:03) Darren Raddysh: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:41) Erik Cernak: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:31) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:12) Nick Paul: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:14) Anthony Cirelli: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:32) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:55) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:37) Alex Laferriere: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:23) Joel Armia: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:47) Warren Foegele: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:26) Quinton Byfield: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:02) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:17) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:23) Kevin Fiala: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:27) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:56) Brian Dumoulin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:05) Alex Laferriere: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:43) Darren Raddysh: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:00) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:45) Kevin Fiala: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:02) Andrei Kuzmenko: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:14) Darren Raddysh: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:25) Adrian Kempe: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:22) Joel Edmundson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:52) Joel Edmundson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:00) Brandt Clarke: wrist, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:18) Jake Guentzel: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:47) Kevin Fiala: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 12:01) Kevin Fiala: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:03) Oliver Bjorkstrand: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:29) Quinton Byfield: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:10) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 131 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:26) Brandt Clarke: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:36) Brandon Hagel: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:59) Anthony Cirelli: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:18) Gage Goncalves: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:15) Brayden Point: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 3:34) Jeff Malott: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:43) Andrei Kuzmenko: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 6:14) Brayden Point: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 18:07) Kevin Fiala: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:37) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 16:41) Gage Goncalves: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:19) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, backhand, 2 ft, xG 0.89 (P3 19:15)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Nikita Kucherov 123 +3 61.19 0120:51
21 Brayden Point 202 +1 60.70 0018:56
38 Brandon Hagel 011 +2 80.29 3018:32
59 Jake Guentzel 022 +1 40.27 0017:44
71 Anthony Cirelli 112 +2 80.51 2017:13
93 Gage Goncalves 101 +2 40.24 1016:50
37 Yanni Gourde 000 +1 10.00 1015:18
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 20.00 3012:24
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 10.11 1211:55
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -1 30.27 0010:21
20 Nick Paul 000 -1 20.16 0009:58
17 Dominic James 000 -1 10.00 2109:23
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 022 +2 50.06 0124:55
90 J.J. Moser 011 +2 10.00 1024:49
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 +2 20.00 3321:39
81 Erik Cernak 000 +2 30.00 5120:13
24 Max Crozier 000 -1 20.00 0314:25
72 Declan Carlile 000 -1 00.00 0011:24
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 20317 .850 2.88 -0.12

Los Angeles Kings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Kevin Fiala 112 -3 70.61 0019:22
55 Quinton Byfield 000 -1 50.24 0019:01
9 Adrian Kempe 000 -2 40.17 3218:37
14 Alex Laferriere 000 0 20.30 2017:25
11 Anze Kopitar 000 -1 00.00 1216:53
62 Andrei Kuzmenko 112 -2 30.37 0116:47
15 Alex Turcotte 000 -2 20.00 1215:49
37 Warren Foegele 000 -1 50.33 1015:45
40 Joel Armia 000 -1 40.26 2015:11
90 Corey Perry 033 0 20.25 0011:29
39 Jeff Malott 101 +1 10.09 3107:47
79 Samuel Helenius 000 +1 00.00 3007:22
Defense
8 Drew Doughty 000 -2 20.00 0222:15
44 Mikey Anderson 000 -2 00.00 3221:35
92 Brandt Clarke 000 -1 50.16 0520:20
6 Joel Edmundson 000 -1 40.07 1119:19
2 Brian Dumoulin 000 +1 20.02 0316:50
5 Cody Ceci 000 0 00.00 0015:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Darcy Kuemper 23419 .826 2.94 -1.06

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +3.41 +1.85 +0.77 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:51
71 Anthony Cirelli C +2.73 +1.30 +0.33 +1.04 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 17:13
21 Brayden Point C +2.23 +1.50 +0.46 +0.25 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 18:56
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.95 +0.75 +0.16 +1.05 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:50
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.77 +1.40 +0.18 +0.25 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 17:44
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.60 +1.40 +0.04 +0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 24:55
90 J.J. Moser D +1.36 +0.55 0.00 +0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:49
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.31 +0.70 +0.19 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:32
81 Erik Cernak D +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:13
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.11 0.00 +0.07 -0.19 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 11:55
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 21:39
17 Dominic James C -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.24 +0.15 +0.01 +0.03 — 9:23
67 Declan Carlile D -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:24
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.07 0.00 +0.18 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:21
31 Jonas Johansson G -0.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.12 60:00
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 12:24
24 Max Crozier D -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 14:25
20 Nick Paul L -0.28 0.00 +0.10 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:58
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 15:18

Los Angeles Kings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 Corey Perry R +2.65 +2.10 +0.16 +0.39 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:29
39 Jeff Malott L +1.38 +0.75 +0.06 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:47
96 Andrei Kuzmenko L +1.28 +1.30 +0.24 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:47
22 Kevin Fiala L +0.98 +1.30 +0.40 -0.86 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 19:22
2 Brian Dumoulin D +0.75 0.00 +0.01 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 16:50
14 Alex Laferriere R +0.46 0.00 +0.20 +0.22 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 17:25
55 Quinton Byfield R +0.24 0.00 +0.16 0.00 +0.15 -0.05 -0.02 — 19:01
79 Samuel Helenius C +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 7:22
37 Warren Foegele L -0.02 0.00 +0.21 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:45
92 Brandt Clarke D -0.05 0.00 +0.10 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 20:20
11 Anze Kopitar C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.15 -0.01 +0.08 — 16:53
5 Cody Ceci D -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:45
40 Joel Armia R -0.32 0.00 +0.17 -0.62 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:11
44 Mikey Anderson D -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:35
8 Drew Doughty D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 22:15
9 Adrian Kempe R -0.40 0.00 +0.11 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:37
15 Alex Turcotte C -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.88 0.00 +0.06 +0.06 — 15:49
6 Joel Edmundson D -0.78 0.00 +0.05 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:19
35 Darcy Kuemper G -1.06 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.06 59:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.