Los Angeles Kings
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 60 | 146 | 161 | -15 | 53.6% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Los Angeles Kings are firmly on the playoff bubble, sitting ninth in the Western Conference with a 43.3% chance of qualifying and a slight downward trend. Their projected finish of 89.5 points leaves them just short of the estimated 90.6-point cutoff, meaning even a modest swing in results could determine their fate.
Record and Recent Performance
At 23-19-14 through 56 games, the Kings have banked 60 points with a 53.6% points percentage, a profile that screams fringe contender rather than lock. Their -15 goal differential, fueled by 161 goals against versus 146 scored, reflects a team that has struggled to control play consistently, and their overall strength rating of 49.6% is below average, especially at home where it dips to 42.9%. Recent form is slightly better at 55.0%, suggesting they are treading water rather than surging at a time when momentum would help.
The Competition
The Kings are chasing a crowded pack, with Anaheim currently holding the cutline at 63 points and projecting to nearly 95 points, while Seattle, Utah, and Edmonton all sit within four points of each other and project comfortably above or right at the cutoff. Vegas is well clear with a 91.1% playoff probability, making them an unrealistic target, but the middle tier is volatile, as Edmonton projects exactly at the 90.6-point cutoff and Seattle at 92.9. Los Angeles realistically needs to outperform at least two of Anaheim, Seattle, or Edmonton down the stretch, while also fending off San Jose, whose 34.0% playoff odds and 88.0-point projection keep them very much in the picture.
Remaining Schedule
The Kings have 26 games left, with a favorable home-heavy split of 15 at home and 11 on the road, though their home performance has paradoxically been their weaker side. Their remaining opponents average a 49.4% strength rating, well below the league average of 53.2%, giving Los Angeles an average-to-favorable schedule on paper. The model expects 29.5 more points, which would land them just under the playoff line, so they likely need to outperform expectations by a couple of wins to feel secure.
Outlook
The path to the playoffs is narrow but clear for Los Angeles: capitalize on a softer schedule, stabilize their defensive play, and turn home ice into an advantage rather than a liability. With several rivals clustered tightly around the cutline, a short hot streak could swing their odds dramatically, but without it, the Kings look more like a just-miss team than a safe qualifier.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 43.6% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 86–93 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 50.8% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.6% | 42.9% | 55.3% | 45.1% | 55.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Adrian Kempe | R | 56 | 20 | 26 | 46 | +8 | 0 | 101 | 32 | 19:09 | |
| 22 | Kevin Fiala | L | 56 | 18 | 22 | 40 | -11 | 0 | 39 | 23 | 19:07 | |
| 55 | Quinton Byfield | R | 55 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -6 | 0 | 40 | 31 | 19:59 | |
| 10 | Corey Perry | R | 45 | 11 | 17 | 28 | +3 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 14:14 | |
| 92 | Brandt Clarke | D | 56 | 6 | 21 | 27 | +8 | 0 | 26 | 108 | 19:19 | |
| 14 | Alex Laferriere | R | 56 | 13 | 12 | 25 | +5 | 0 | 159 | 35 | 17:21 | |
| 96 | Andrei Kuzmenko | L | 51 | 13 | 10 | 23 | -5 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 14:56 | |
| 11 | Anze Kopitar | C | 41 | 6 | 16 | 22 | +12 | 0 | 22 | 37 | 18:29 | |
| 40 | Joel Armia | R | 51 | 10 | 10 | 20 | +3 | 0 | 53 | 28 | 14:35 | |
| 6 | Joel Edmundson | D | 56 | 2 | 14 | 16 | +7 | 0 | 64 | 66 | 18:23 | |
| 12 | Trevor Moore | L | 44 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -2 | 0 | 31 | 24 | 15:54 | |
| 8 | Drew Doughty | D | 48 | 3 | 11 | 14 | +1 | 0 | 24 | 53 | 22:57 | |
| 15 | Alex Turcotte | C | 49 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 0 | 29 | 26 | 10:56 | |
| 2 | Brian Dumoulin | D | 56 | 1 | 11 | 12 | +3 | 0 | 26 | 66 | 18:31 | |
| 44 | Mikey Anderson | D | 54 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 0 | 60 | 77 | 19:59 | |
| 37 | Warren Foegele | L | 43 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 14:42 | |
| 39 | Jeff Malott | L | 40 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 123 | 19 | 9:00 | |
| 5 | Cody Ceci | D | 56 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 23 | 73 | 17:28 | |
| 79 | Samuel Helenius | C | 29 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 71 | 10 | 7:54 | |
| 24 | Phillip Danault → MTL | C | 30 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 22 | 11 | 16:19 | |
| 52 | Taylor Ward | R | 15 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 10:56 | |
| 47 | Andre Lee | L | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 11:05 | |
| 43 | Jacob Moverare | D | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8:26 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ VGK | 4 - 1 | L |
| Feb 04 | vs SEA | 2 - 4 | L |
| Feb 01 | @ CAR | 3 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 31 | @ PHI | 2 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | @ BUF | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 27 | @ DET | 1 - 3 | W |
| Jan 24 | @ STL | 4 - 5 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 20 | vs NYR | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 17 | @ ANA | 2 - 1 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 16 | vs ANA | 2 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 52.5% | 1.04 | VGK (55%) |
| Feb 26, 22:30 | vs Edmonton Oilers | Home | 52.1% | 1.08 | EDM (52%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.25 | LAK (57%) |
| Mar 02, 22:30 | vs Colorado Avalanche | Home | 66.8% | 1.01 | COL (57%) |
| Mar 05, 21:30 | vs New York Islanders | Home | 55.9% | 1.01 | NYI (57%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 58.5% | 0.96 | MTL (59%) |
| Mar 09, 16:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 1.05 | CBJ (54%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | @ Boston Bruins | Away | 59.9% | 1.01 | BOS (56%) |
| Mar 13, 19:00 | @ New York Islanders | Away | 55.9% | 1.11 | NYI (51%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.22 | LAK (55%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 10.7 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.