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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 3–4 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Friday, January 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 111 3 25
St. Louis BluesSTL 121 4 19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:12 VGK Keegan Kolesar (1) Colton Sissons (3), Kaedan Korczak (7) · wrist xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
10:39 STL Alexey Toropchenko (2) Mathieu Joseph (7), Oskar Sundqvist (10) · wrist xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:39 STL Justin Faulk (11) Pavel Buchnevich (15), Tyler Tucker (6) · wrist xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
6:37 STL Oskar Sundqvist (2) Alexey Toropchenko (2), Mathieu Joseph (8) · snap xG 0.18 1–3 ▶
9:10 VGK Mark Stone (11) Brett Howden (5) · wrist xG 0.25 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
8:21 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (16) Braeden Bowman (9) · wrist xG 0.16 3–3 ▶
18:27 STL Brayden Schenn (9) Jimmy Snuggerud (7), Pavel Buchnevich (16) · deflected xG 0.23 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 45%Deserve to win55% STL
VGKSTL
1.91Expected goals2.57
3Goals (no shootout)4
1.41Expected goals, 5 on 51.77
47Shot attempts47
36Unblocked attempts33
25Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
7:42 STL Deserve to win Deserve to win · STL takes the lead, 60–40%
VGK had led since 2:52 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
19:59 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hart, down 3–2
With 0:01 left
3rd Period
18:37 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hart, down 4–3
With 1:23 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Otto Stenberg: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:18) Tomas Hertl: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 2:19) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:52) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:44) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:36) Brett Howden: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:38) Ben Hutton: backhand, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:04) Jack Eichel: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:44) Mark Stone: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:45) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:19) Philip Broberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:26) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:37) Mitch Marner: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:35) Cam Fowler: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:48) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:28) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 102 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:46) Brett Howden: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:59) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:31) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 16:02) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:09) Jack Eichel: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:37) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:48) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:54) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:23) Reilly Smith: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:25) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:31) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 7:42) Jimmy Snuggerud: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:49) Zach Whitecloud: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:44) Philip Broberg: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:29) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:35) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:29) Jake Neighbours: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:52) Philip Broberg: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:56) Brett Howden: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:37) Mitch Marner: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:41) Mark Stone: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:13) Noah Hanifin: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:20) Otto Stenberg: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:46) Mitch Marner: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:22) Ben Hutton: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:25) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:44) Justin Faulk: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:10) Braeden Bowman: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:20) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:30) Philip Broberg: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:32) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:50) Colton Parayko: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:03) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:52) Jordan Kyrou: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:53) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:09) Zach Whitecloud: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:12) Pavel Dorofeyev: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:24) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 11:26) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:18) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:43) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:18) Brandon Saad: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:37) Tomas Hertl: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:51) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:25) Jack Eichel: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:50) Joel Hofer: wrist, 166 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 18:59) Keegan Kolesar: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:12) Alexey Toropchenko: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 10:39) Justin Faulk: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:39) Oskar Sundqvist: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:37) Mark Stone: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 9:10) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:21) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 18:27)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 000 -2 40.10 2219:34
93 Mitch Marner 000 0 40.08 0319:01
61 Mark Stone 101 0 40.30 0117:55
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 101 0 40.24 0017:12
48 Tomas Hertl 000 0 50.39 3017:06
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 -1 10.01 0015:08
42 Braeden Bowman 011 0 20.23 0114:27
21 Brett Howden 011 0 30.08 0014:01
15 Colton Sissons 011 0 00.00 2013:39
20 Brandon Saad 000 0 30.02 0113:23
19 Reilly Smith 000 -1 10.13 0012:23
55 Keegan Kolesar 101 +1 10.08 4012:00
Defense
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -1 20.03 2126:17
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 0 40.07 0222:29
6 Kaedan Korczak 011 +1 40.03 2120:33
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 +2 20.07 5219:37
17 Ben Hutton 000 -2 30.05 0011:56
88 Jaycob Megna 000 -2 00.00 1010:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Carter Hart 19415 .789 2.17 -1.83

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 000 0 10.00 0020:05
63 Jake Neighbours 000 -1 30.22 1017:23
10 Brayden Schenn 101 -1 10.23 1116:44
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 0 30.31 2015:13
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 +1 70.24 0015:11
89 Pavel Buchnevich 022 0 20.19 0015:04
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 0 20.01 2014:38
28 Otto Stenberg 000 0 30.08 2014:16
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 20.14 4114:02
13 Alexey Toropchenko 112 +2 30.25 1013:28
21 Mathieu Joseph 022 0 00.00 1111:31
70 Oskar Sundqvist 112 +2 10.18 1111:24
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 +2 50.15 0125:23
55 Colton Parayko 000 +2 10.01 0222:37
72 Justin Faulk 101 -2 40.12 1121:00
17 Cam Fowler 000 +1 30.00 1017:17
75 Tyler Tucker 011 -1 30.03 2017:07
4 Matthew Kessel 000 0 20.02 0113:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 25322 .880 1.91 -1.09

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
61 Mark Stone R +1.26 +0.75 +0.19 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:55
42 Braeden Bowman R +1.18 +0.70 +0.15 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:27
55 Keegan Kolesar R +1.05 +0.75 +0.05 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:00
21 Brett Howden C +0.99 +0.70 +0.05 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:01
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.92 +0.75 +0.16 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:12
10 Colton Sissons C +0.70 +0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:39
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.61 0.00 +0.04 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:37
2 Zach Whitecloud D +0.58 0.00 +0.04 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:29
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.57 +0.55 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 20:33
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.51 0.00 +0.26 +0.30 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 17:06
20 Brandon Saad L -0.05 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 13:23
93 Mitch Marner R -0.07 0.00 +0.05 -0.11 -0.15 +0.01 +0.13 — 19:01
15 Noah Hanifin D -0.35 0.00 +0.02 -0.27 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 26:17
19 Reilly Smith R -0.64 0.00 +0.08 -0.70 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:23
88 Jaycob Megna D -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:43
49 Ivan Barbashev L -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.79 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:08
9 Jack Eichel C -1.05 0.00 +0.07 -1.32 +0.15 -0.01 +0.06 — 19:34
17 Ben Hutton D -1.11 0.00 +0.03 -0.99 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:56
79 Carter Hart G -1.83 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.83 58:36

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
70 Oskar Sundqvist C +2.23 +1.30 +0.12 +0.74 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 11:24
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +1.92 +1.45 +0.16 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:28
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +1.69 +1.25 +0.12 +0.33 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:04
6 Philip Broberg D +1.54 0.00 +0.10 +1.44 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 25:23
71 Mathieu Joseph R +1.46 +1.25 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:31
55 Colton Parayko D +1.14 0.00 0.00 +1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:37
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.11 +0.70 +0.20 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:13
10 Brayden Schenn C +1.02 +0.75 +0.15 +0.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 16:44
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.86 0.00 +0.16 +0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:11
18 Robert Thomas C +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.45 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 — 20:05
17 Cam Fowler D +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:17
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.29 0.00 +0.14 -0.02 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 17:23
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.08 +0.55 +0.02 -0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:07
29 Jonatan Berggren R -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:38
72 Justin Faulk D -0.18 +0.75 +0.08 -0.91 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 21:00
51 Matthew Kessel D -0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:37
28 Otto Stenberg C -0.41 0.00 +0.06 -0.47 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:16
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.58 0.00 +0.09 -0.67 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 14:02
30 Joel Hofer G -1.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.09 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.