Buffalo SabresBUF 1–5 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	0	0	1	33
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	3	1	1	5	35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:00	CBJ	Denton Mateychuk (8) Boone Jenner (12), Zach Werenski (27) · wrist xG 0.01	0–1 ▶
11:26	BUF	Josh Doan (12) Josh Norris (8), Owen Power (9) · snap xG 0.28	1–1 ▶
14:04	CBJ	Brendan Gaunce (2)SH Unassisted · snap xG 0.14	1–2 ▶
17:12	CBJ	Dmitri Voronkov (14) Ivan Provorov (10), Damon Severson (13) · tip-in xG 0.10	1–3 ▶
2nd Period
8:04	CBJ	Mathieu Olivier (4) Zachary Aston-Reese (4), Damon Severson (14) · backhand xG 0.07	1–4 ▶
3rd Period
11:46	CBJ	Cole Sillinger (5)EN Denton Mateychuk (11), Zach Werenski (28) · snap xG 0.77	1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 74%Deserve to win26% CBJ

BUF		CBJ
4.57	Expected goals	3.63
1	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.68	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.18
81	Shot attempts	66
66	Unblocked attempts	49
33	Shots on goal	35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:04	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Luukkonen −2.1 goals saved 4 goals on 1.86 xG, 20 shots on goal
19:59	CBJ	Goalie	Goalie · Greaves +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.14 xG, 21 shots on goal
3rd Period
7:10	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.05–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:10 of the 2nd to 7:10 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	0	0	0	-3	10	0.57	2	2	22:42
91	Josh Doan	1	0	1	-2	4	0.58	0	0	21:30
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	-2	9	0.75	2	1	19:49
9	Josh Norris	0	1	1	-2	7	0.46	0	2	17:38
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	0	4	0.28	0	1	16:59
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.25	1	1	16:39
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	0	11	0.37	0	1	15:53
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	0	3	14:28
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	12:36
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	08:36
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	-1	1	0.23	2	0	08:15
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	0	07:53
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	-3	5	0.17	2	1	25:30
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	-2	6	0.44	1	1	24:33
25	Owen Power	0	1	1	0	4	0.13	1	0	21:41
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	8	0.17	1	0	20:59
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	09:59
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	09:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	4	30	.882	2.86	-1.14

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
22	Boone Jenner	0	1	1	0	4	0.07	0	0	17:44
19	Adam Fantilli	0	0	0	0	5	0.33	4	0	16:40
86	Kirill Marchenko	0	0	0	0	5	0.27	2	0	16:28
50	Brendan Gaunce	1	0	1	+3	4	0.23	0	3	16:14
27	Mason Marchment	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	1	2	15:45
24	Mathieu Olivier	1	0	1	+1	4	0.12	3	1	15:08
3	Charlie Coyle	0	0	0	+2	7	0.49	2	1	14:49
21	Zachary Aston-Reese	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	4	1	12:48
4	Cole Sillinger	1	0	1	+1	3	0.82	2	0	12:12
91	Kent Johnson	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	1	1	10:51
10	Dmitri Voronkov	1	0	1	+1	4	0.43	1	1	09:11
58	Danton Heinen	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	0	08:51
Defense
9	Ivan Provorov	0	1	1	+3	4	0.22	0	1	25:32
5	Denton Mateychuk	1	1	2	+2	3	0.01	0	0	24:15
8	Zach Werenski	0	2	2	+1	6	0.16	1	0	23:12
15	Dante Fabbro	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	1	18:03
78	Damon Severson	0	2	2	+2	5	0.15	0	0	16:55
2	Jake Christiansen	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	1	11:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jet Greaves	33	1	32	.970	4.57	+3.57

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
91 Josh Doan R	+1.77	+0.75	+0.38	+0.67	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:30
9 Josh Norris C	+1.35	+0.70	+0.30	+0.24	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	17:38
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.23	0.00	+0.11	+1.01	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	20:59
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.13	0.00	+0.49	+0.59	0.00	+0.02	+0.03	—	19:49
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+0.97	0.00	+0.11	+0.49	+0.30	0.00	+0.07	—	25:30
25 Owen Power D	+0.96	+0.55	+0.08	+0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:41
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.83	0.00	+0.37	+0.34	0.00	+0.02	+0.10	—	22:42
6 Zach Benson L	+0.78	0.00	+0.16	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:39
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.45	0.00	+0.18	+0.16	+0.15	-0.05	+0.01	—	16:59
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	14:28
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.02	0.00	+0.08	-0.18	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	12:36
22 Jack Quinn R	-0.07	0.00	+0.24	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	15:53
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.08	0.00	+0.15	-0.29	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	8:15
4 Bowen Byram D	-0.20	0.00	+0.29	-0.46	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	24:33
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.35	0.00	+0.02	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:53
12 Jordan Greenway L	-0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	8:36
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:46
78 Jacob Bryson D	-0.80	0.00	0.00	-0.68	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	9:59
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	-1.14	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.14	58:34

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
73 Jet Greaves G	+3.57	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+3.57	60:00
78 Damon Severson D	+1.86	+1.10	+0.10	+0.84	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	16:55
10 Dmitri Voronkov L	+1.35	+0.75	+0.28	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:11
4 Cole Sillinger C	+1.28	+0.75	+0.53	+0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	12:12
9 Ivan Provorov D	+0.92	+0.70	+0.14	+0.19	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	25:32
16 Brendan Gaunce C	+0.90	+0.75	+0.15	-0.21	0.00	+0.02	+0.19	—	16:14
8 Zach Werenski D	+0.66	+1.10	+0.10	-0.52	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:12
17 Mason Marchment L	+0.64	0.00	+0.13	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	15:45
3 Charlie Coyle C	+0.62	0.00	+0.32	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:49
27 Zachary Aston-Reese L	+0.61	+0.70	0.00	-0.27	+0.15	-0.02	+0.05	—	12:48
5 Denton Mateychuk D	+0.58	+1.45	+0.01	-0.85	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	24:15
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+0.29	0.00	+0.17	+0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:28
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+0.28	+0.75	+0.08	-0.42	-0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	15:08
2 Jake Christiansen D	+0.26	0.00	+0.01	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:22
19 Adam Fantilli C	+0.15	0.00	+0.22	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:40
43 Danton Heinen L	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.14	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	8:51
38 Boone Jenner C	+0.06	+0.70	+0.05	-0.69	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	17:44
91 Kent Johnson C	-0.30	0.00	+0.07	-0.27	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	10:51
15 Dante Fabbro D	-0.53	0.00	+0.02	-0.42	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	18:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.