hockeystats.io

Tampa Bay LightningTBL 7–3 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 340 7 26
San Jose SharksSJS 111 3 22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:37 TBL Brayden Point (10) Max Crozier (8), Nikita Kucherov (36) · wrist xG 0.13 1–0 ▶
4:08 TBL Darren Raddysh (10) Nikita Kucherov (37), Gage Goncalves (9) · slap xG 0.08 2–0 ▶
6:46 TBL Brandon Hagel (19) Jake Guentzel (24), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (11) · snap xG 0.23 3–0 ▶
10:50 SJS Pavol Regenda (3)PP Timothy Liljegren (5), Macklin Celebrini (41) · wrist xG 0.39 3–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:49 TBL Darren Raddysh (11)PP Nikita Kucherov (38), Jake Guentzel (25) · slap xG 0.06 4–1 ▶
3:55 TBL Dominic James (3) Oliver Bjorkstrand (13) · backhand xG 0.16 5–1 ▶
9:50 SJS Pavol Regenda (4) Timothy Liljegren (6), Jeff Skinner (4) · tip-in xG 0.22 5–2 ▶
14:08 TBL Nikita Kucherov (20)PP Oliver Bjorkstrand (14), Brayden Point (16) · wrist xG 0.06 6–2 ▶
16:53 TBL Darren Raddysh (12)PP Nikita Kucherov (39), Nick Paul (6) · slap xG 0.07 7–2 ▶
3rd Period
16:11 SJS Pavol Regenda (5) Jeff Skinner (5) · wrist xG 0.15 7–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 57%Deserve to win43% SJS
TBLSJS
3.69Expected goals3.28
7Goals (no shootout)3
2.96Expected goals, 5 on 51.94
60Shot attempts46
42Unblocked attempts37
26Shots on goal22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
6:46 SJS Goalie Goalie · Askarov −2.0 goals saved
3 goals on 0.96 xG, 10 shots on goal
6:46 SJS Goalie change Goalie change · Nedeljkovic in for Askarov
6:46 of the 1st; Askarov had allowed 3 goals on 10 shots (0.96 xG)
2nd Period
11:00 SJS No shift No shift · Mukhamadullin, 27:44 on the bench
No shift after 17:15 of the 1st; 7 shifts (5:33) before that
14:08 SJS Goalie Goalie · Nedeljkovic −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.91 xG, 9 shots on goal

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Pontus Holmberg: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:24) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:06) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:54) Zack Ostapchuk: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:03) Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:04) Brandon Hagel: tip-in, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:28) Yanni Gourde: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:29) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:44) Max Crozier: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:06) Declan Carlile: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:45) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:45) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:46) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:47) William Eklund: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 7:30) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 10:30) Pavol Regenda: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:46) Timothy Liljegren: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:06) Max Crozier: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:31) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:05) Anthony Cirelli: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:16) Brandon Hagel: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:21) Pontus Holmberg: poke, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:46) Brayden Point: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:43) Gage Goncalves: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:17) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:53) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:54) Ty Dellandrea: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:13) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:30) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 4:37) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:51) Collin Graf: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:20) Vincent Iorio: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:50) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:48) Ryan Reaves: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:15) Vincent Iorio: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:42) Jake Guentzel: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:36) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:42) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:43) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:01) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:05) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:40) Igor Chernyshov: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:42) Vincent Iorio: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:34) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:17) Macklin Celebrini: deflected, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:30) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 2:07) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:08) Max Crozier: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:24) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:17) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:58) Sam Dickinson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:01) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:33) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:05) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:59) William Eklund: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:28) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:38) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 9:40) Tyler Toffoli: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:59) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:18) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 11:28) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 11:32) Nick Paul: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:34) Erik Cernak: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:16) Yanni Gourde: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:21) J.J. Moser: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:35) Yanni Gourde: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:57) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:35) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:52) Pavol Regenda: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:54) Brayden Point: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:37) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:08) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 6:46) Pavol Regenda: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.39 (P1 10:50) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 56 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:49) Dominic James: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 3:55) Pavol Regenda: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 9:50) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:08) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 48 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:53) Pavol Regenda: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 0 10.03 0018:08
38 Brandon Hagel 101 0 60.30 1016:58
59 Jake Guentzel 022 0 20.08 0116:56
20 Nick Paul 011 +1 10.12 0016:38
86 Nikita Kucherov 145 +2 50.48 1015:37
37 Yanni Gourde 000 -1 50.44 0015:19
21 Brayden Point 112 +2 30.15 0014:44
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 022 +1 70.26 0014:28
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 -1 40.37 1013:36
93 Gage Goncalves 011 +2 10.13 0013:31
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 -1 30.76 0013:27
17 Dominic James 101 +1 30.16 0010:35
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 303 +1 60.23 1120:48
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 011 0 50.06 0220:48
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 20.02 1219:29
72 Declan Carlile 000 +1 20.06 0117:36
90 J.J. Moser 000 +1 10.00 1116:57
24 Max Crozier 011 +1 30.04 2016:49
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 22319 .864 3.28 +0.28

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 011 0 90.59 1024:19
27 William Eklund 000 -1 20.23 2121:54
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 10.15 0219:38
51 Collin Graf 000 0 10.06 0017:17
92 Igor Chernyshov 000 -1 30.04 2316:05
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 0 30.09 0113:56
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -2 20.03 1011:35
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -2 10.41 4111:31
10 Ty Dellandrea 000 0 20.02 2110:28
53 Jeff Skinner 022 +1 40.18 0109:33
75 Ryan Reaves 000 -2 20.07 5009:15
84 Pavol Regenda 303 +1 71.23 2009:11
Defense
6 Vincent Iorio 000 +1 30.06 0423:58
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 0 30.04 1023:20
27 Timothy Liljegren 022 0 10.01 1221:39
38 Mario Ferraro 000 -2 00.00 1021:02
6 Sam Dickinson 000 0 20.06 1020:03
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 -3 00.00 0105:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 1037 .700 0.96 -2.04
Alex Nedeljkovic 16412 .750 2.73 -1.27

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +4.46 +3.40 +0.31 +0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 15:37
43 Darren Raddysh D +2.86 +2.25 +0.15 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:48
21 Brayden Point C +2.57 +1.30 +0.10 +0.81 +0.30 +0.04 +0.02 — 14:44
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.68 +1.25 +0.05 +0.17 +0.19 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:56
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +1.40 +0.55 +0.04 +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:48
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.40 +0.55 +0.08 +0.81 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:31
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +1.39 +1.40 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:28
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.15 +0.75 +0.20 +0.17 +0.04 0.00 0.00 — 16:58
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +1.09 0.00 +0.49 +0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:27
24 Max Crozier D +1.05 +0.70 +0.03 +0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:49
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.78 0.00 +0.24 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 13:36
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.67 0.00 +0.29 +0.51 -0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 15:19
17 Dominic James C +0.64 +0.75 +0.11 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 10:35
90 J.J. Moser D +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.49 +0.08 0.00 +0.05 — 16:57
81 Erik Cernak D +0.57 0.00 +0.01 +0.67 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 19:29
20 Nick Paul L +0.53 +0.55 +0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 16:38
67 Declan Carlile D +0.32 0.00 +0.04 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:36
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.28 60:00
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.11 0.00 +0.02 +0.17 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 18:08

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
84 Pavol Regenda L +3.38 +2.25 +0.80 +0.47 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 9:11
53 Jeff Skinner L +1.79 +1.25 +0.12 +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 9:33
37 Timothy Liljegren D +1.21 +1.40 +0.01 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:39
71 Macklin Celebrini C +0.91 +0.55 +0.38 -0.29 +0.30 -0.01 -0.02 — 24:19
9 Dmitry Orlov D +0.65 0.00 +0.03 +0.75 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 23:20
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.23 0.00 +0.06 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:56
51 Collin Graf R -0.17 0.00 +0.04 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:17
21 Alexander Wennberg C -0.24 0.00 +0.10 -0.35 0.00 -0.02 +0.04 — 19:38
92 Igor Chernyshov L -0.36 0.00 +0.03 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 16:05
10 Ty Dellandrea C -0.47 0.00 +0.01 -0.58 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 10:28
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.52 0.00 +0.27 -0.80 -0.04 0.00 +0.05 — 11:31
75 Ryan Reaves R -0.59 0.00 +0.05 -0.56 -0.08 0.00 0.00 — 9:15
22 Vincent Iorio D -0.63 0.00 +0.04 -0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 23:58
72 William Eklund L -0.69 0.00 +0.15 -0.74 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 21:54
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.75 0.00 +0.02 -0.77 -0.04 +0.04 0.00 — 11:35
6 Sam Dickinson D -0.77 0.00 +0.04 -0.64 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:03
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:33
38 Mario Ferraro D -1.25 0.00 0.00 -1.27 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:02
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -1.27 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.27 53:14
30 Yaroslav Askarov G -2.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.04 6:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.