hockeystats.io

Winnipeg JetsWPG 2–4 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 101 2 23
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 121 4 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:08 WPG Adam Lowry (3)SH Kyle Connor (29) · backhand xG 0.28 1–0 ▶
15:03 OTT Thomas Chabot (3)PP Brady Tkachuk (13) · wrist xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:56 OTT Thomas Chabot (4) Nick Jensen (8), Ridly Greig (10) · wrist xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
15:50 OTT Drake Batherson (16)PP Tim Stützle (24), Dylan Cozens (19) · wrist xG 0.11 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
10:10 WPG Kyle Connor (19) Dylan DeMelo (13), Josh Morrissey (26) · wrist xG 0.15 2–3 ▶
15:28 OTT Claude Giroux (8) Jake Sanderson (21), Shane Pinto (9) · wrist xG 0.04 2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 46%Deserve to win54% OTT
WPGOTT
2.65Expected goals3.25
2Goals (no shootout)4
1.80Expected goals, 5 on 51.87
60Shot attempts46
38Unblocked attempts38
23Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:13 OTT Deserve to win Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 61–39%
WPG had led since 4:11 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
17:21 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hellebuyck, down 4–2
With 2:39 left

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Tyler Kleven: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:18) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:11) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:45) Cole Perfetti: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:31) Stephen Halliday: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:08) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:11) Tim Stützle: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 4:19) Neal Pionk: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:28) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:45) Adam Lowry: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 5:57) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:12) David Perron: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:50) Drake Batherson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:47) Nick Jensen: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:55) Logan Stanley: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:15) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:26) Shane Pinto: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:24) Cole Koepke: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:28) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:42) Drake Batherson: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:38) Tim Stützle: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:11) Claude Giroux: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:55) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:37) Kyle Connor: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:25) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:25) Artem Zub: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:41) David Perron: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:13) Ridly Greig: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:53) Tim Stützle: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:07) Brady Tkachuk: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:12) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:41) Shane Pinto: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:15) Michael Amadio: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.38 (P2 9:18) Alex Iafallo: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:11) Cole Perfetti: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:23) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:05) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:38) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:42) Gabriel Vilardi: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:21) Neal Pionk: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:37) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:14) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:15) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:16) Kyle Connor: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 1:18) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:11) Cole Perfetti: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:20) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:34) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:54) Nino Niederreiter: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:35) Nick Cousins: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:50) Artem Zub: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:08) Dylan Samberg: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:59) Nick Cousins: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:41) David Perron: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 5:44) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:24) Ridly Greig: wrist, 181 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:01) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:08) Morgan Barron: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:33) Tim Stützle: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:56) Adam Lowry: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:10) Neal Pionk: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:15) Drake Batherson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:00) Shane Pinto: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:20) Claude Giroux: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:43) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:56) Kyle Connor: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:01) Colin Miller: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:39) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 18:04) Alex Iafallo: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 18:45) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:08) Adam Lowry: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 12:08) Thomas Chabot: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:03) Thomas Chabot: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:56) Drake Batherson: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:50) Kyle Connor: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:10) Claude Giroux: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 112 0 50.61 0022:29
55 Mark Scheifele 000 -1 50.22 0020:34
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 30.33 0018:04
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 30.30 0017:28
36 Morgan Barron 000 0 20.09 4015:35
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 30.10 0015:24
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 0 10.01 3015:17
91 Cole Perfetti 000 0 70.20 1014:34
17 Adam Lowry 101 +1 50.53 1014:13
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 00.00 1109:21
45 Cole Koepke 000 0 10.00 1108:46
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 20.05 1008:20
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 011 +1 50.00 0126:05
4 Neal Pionk 000 +1 80.10 1224:44
54 Dylan Samberg 000 +1 30.01 0120:51
2 Dylan DeMelo 011 +1 10.05 3118:15
8 Logan Stanley 000 -2 50.01 0012:33
6 Colin Miller 000 -2 10.04 2010:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 27423 .852 2.89 -1.11

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
12 Shane Pinto 011 +1 40.11 1021:22
18 Tim Stützle 011 -1 60.37 0120:49
28 Claude Giroux 101 0 40.26 0018:42
24 Dylan Cozens 011 -1 40.32 1018:26
19 Drake Batherson 101 -1 40.33 2018:00
71 Ridly Greig 011 +1 30.15 1116:23
8 Brady Tkachuk 011 -1 40.08 2014:18
22 Michael Amadio 000 +1 20.38 3013:33
16 David Perron 000 0 30.56 2011:24
21 Nick Cousins 000 0 20.04 2010:10
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 0 00.00 0210:03
34 Stephen Halliday 000 0 10.03 0007:53
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 011 0 00.00 0427:56
72 Thomas Chabot 202 0 20.20 0320:30
2 Artem Zub 000 +1 20.03 2319:48
4 Nick Jensen 011 0 10.03 0216:09
43 Tyler Kleven 000 0 30.36 3315:48
10 Jordan Spence 000 0 10.00 1010:46
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Leevi Meriläinen 23221 .913 2.65 +0.65

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Kyle Connor L +1.87 +1.45 +0.39 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:29
2 Dylan DeMelo D +1.62 +0.70 +0.03 +0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:15
17 Adam Lowry C +1.49 +0.75 +0.35 +0.33 0.00 +0.04 +0.02 — 14:13
44 Josh Morrissey D +1.13 +0.55 0.00 +0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:05
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.81 0.00 +0.19 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 17:28
36 Morgan Barron C +0.39 0.00 +0.06 +0.17 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 15:35
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.37 0.00 +0.13 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:34
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.32 0.00 +0.22 -0.18 +0.30 -0.02 0.00 — 18:04
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.20 0.00 +0.14 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:34
62 Nino Niederreiter R +0.17 0.00 +0.01 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:17
19 Jonathan Toews C +0.04 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 -0.15 +0.08 0.00 — 15:24
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.17 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:51
4 Neal Pionk D -0.29 0.00 +0.06 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:44
6 Colin Miller D -0.55 0.00 +0.02 -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:29
45 Cole Koepke L -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:46
70 Tanner Pearson L -0.60 0.00 +0.03 -0.64 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 8:20
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:21
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -1.11 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.11 57:21
64 Logan Stanley D -1.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.80 -0.45 0.00 -0.02 — 12:33

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Thomas Chabot D +1.73 +1.50 +0.13 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:30
7 Brady Tkachuk L +0.99 +0.70 +0.05 -0.07 +0.30 +0.03 -0.02 — 14:18
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.86 0.00 +0.24 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 15:48
19 Drake Batherson R +0.84 +0.75 +0.21 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:00
12 Shane Pinto C +0.84 +0.55 +0.07 +0.23 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 21:22
57 David Perron L +0.83 0.00 +0.36 +0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:24
18 Tim Stützle C +0.82 +0.70 +0.24 -0.32 +0.15 -0.02 +0.07 — 20:49
3 Nick Jensen D +0.74 +0.70 +0.02 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:09
85 Jake Sanderson D +0.67 +0.70 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 27:56
1 Leevi Meriläinen G +0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.65 60:00
28 Claude Giroux R +0.63 +0.75 +0.17 -0.08 -0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 18:42
21 Nick Cousins C +0.62 0.00 +0.03 +0.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 10:10
83 Stephen Halliday C +0.62 0.00 +0.02 +0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:53
10 Jordan Spence D +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:46
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.50 +0.55 +0.21 -0.20 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 18:26
71 Ridly Greig C +0.48 +0.55 +0.09 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:23
22 Michael Amadio R +0.47 0.00 +0.25 +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:33
20 Fabian Zetterlund L -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 10:03
2 Artem Zub D -0.38 0.00 +0.02 -0.25 -0.30 0.00 +0.15 — 19:48

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.