hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 3–4 Final/OT New York IslandersNYI

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 0210 3 21
New York IslandersNYI 0121 4 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:10 NYI Adam Pelech (3) Jonathan Drouin (15) · wrist xG 0.02 0–1 ▶
9:30 TOR Auston Matthews (19) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
17:19 TOR Auston Matthews (20) Bobby McMann (10), Max Domi (15) · snap xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
11:10 NYI Matthew Schaefer (11) Jonathan Drouin (16), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10) · wrist xG 0.27 2–2 ▶
12:12 TOR Nick Robertson (9) Nicolas Roy (11) · snap xG 0.19 3–2 ▶
17:15 NYI Emil Heineman (13) Mathew Barzal (21), Tony DeAngelo (13) · snap xG 0.08 3–3 ▶
Overtime
4:11 NYI Matthew Schaefer (12) Mathew Barzal (22), Emil Heineman (7) · snap xG 0.22 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 57%Deserve to win43% NYI
TORNYI
2.76Expected goals2.38
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.23Expected goals, 5 on 51.80
54Shot attempts58
39Unblocked attempts45
21Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:10 NYI Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Ritchie and Tsyplakov: no shift after 6:11 of the 3rd

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots
Auston Matthews: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:16) Easton Cowan: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:15) Nick Robertson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:23) Steven Lorentz: snap, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:40) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:30) Adam Pelech: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:37) Morgan Rielly: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:58) Troy Stecher: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:09) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:19) John Tavares: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:44) Morgan Rielly: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:09) Auston Matthews: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:21) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:41) Calum Ritchie: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:01) Scott Mayfield: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:11) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:15) Auston Matthews: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:48) Adam Pelech: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:06) Mathew Barzal: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:26) Tony DeAngelo: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:07) Maxim Shabanov: bat, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:37) Anders Lee: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:38) Jake McCabe: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:24) Ryan Pulock: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:41) Auston Matthews: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:53) Anders Lee: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:06) Matthew Knies: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:58) Morgan Rielly: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:00) John Tavares: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 19:18) Mathew Barzal: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:34) Adam Pelech: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:04) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:15) Steven Lorentz: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:22) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:39) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:45) Mathew Barzal: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:57) Troy Stecher: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:14) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:30) Nick Robertson: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:34) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:02) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:51) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:54) Easton Cowan: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:20) Scott Mayfield: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:39) Troy Stecher: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:06) Scott Laughton: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:15) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:16) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:00) Emil Heineman: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:06) Nick Robertson: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:34) Scott Laughton: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 16:42) Matias Maccelli: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:59) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:37) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:02) Kyle MacLean: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:09) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:25) Simon Holmstrom: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:47) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:58) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:03) Adam Pelech: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:13) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:18) John Tavares: deflected, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:35) Marc Gatcomb: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:17) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:20) Calum Ritchie: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:36) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:40) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:17) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:38) Simon Holmstrom: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:54) Simon Benoit: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:04) Bobby McMann: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:47) Auston Matthews: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:50) Adam Pelech: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:08) Scott Laughton: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:27) Matias Maccelli: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 1:05) Matthew Knies: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 1:38) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 3:52) Adam Pelech: GOAL, wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:10) Auston Matthews: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 9:30) Auston Matthews: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:19) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 11:10) Nick Robertson: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 12:12) Emil Heineman: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:15) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 4:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 202 0 100.58 0222:29
74 Bobby McMann 011 0 20.09 0220:17
89 Matthew Knies 000 -2 20.26 1019:03
11 Max Domi 011 0 20.00 0017:21
91 John Tavares 000 -2 30.37 0017:04
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 20.23 0016:55
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 30.24 2114:20
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 50.03 0012:05
14 Nick Robertson 101 +1 50.55 0012:02
53 Easton Cowan 000 +1 20.17 4011:58
10 Nicolas Roy 011 +1 20.06 1011:42
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 00.00 0010:42
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -4 40.05 2027:31
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +2 10.00 1126:40
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 60.06 0022:07
22 Jake McCabe 000 +2 20.05 1118:07
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.01 7115:44
33 Matt Benning 000 0 10.00 0312:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 25421 .840 2.38 -1.62

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 022 +1 60.33 0122:49
51 Emil Heineman 112 -1 50.21 2020:11
92 Jonathan Drouin 022 +2 20.04 0118:56
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 +2 60.33 0118:45
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 011 +1 30.13 1118:30
72 Anders Lee 000 -1 20.06 1015:34
49 Maxim Shabanov 000 -1 20.07 1015:04
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 10.02 7213:16
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 00.00 3013:12
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 20.02 1010:15
72 Maxim Tsyplakov 000 0 00.00 1010:10
64 Calum Ritchie 000 -1 20.10 0009:10
Defense
3 Adam Pelech 101 +1 60.20 1124:04
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 +3 100.18 0022:42
48 Matthew Schaefer 202 +1 50.49 1122:11
6 Ryan Pulock 000 0 30.04 0119:45
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -2 30.15 1119:09
0 Cole McWard 000 -2 00.00 1114:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 21318 .857 2.76 -0.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
89 Nick Robertson L +2.04 +0.75 +0.36 +0.98 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 12:02
55 Nicolas Roy C +1.56 +0.70 +0.04 +0.78 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 11:42
34 Auston Matthews C +1.44 +1.50 +0.38 -0.47 0.00 -0.03 +0.06 — 22:29
53 Easton Cowan R +1.37 0.00 +0.11 +1.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:58
2 Simon Benoit D +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:44
33 Matt Benning D +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 12:26
74 Bobby McMann C +0.36 +0.70 +0.06 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:17
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:40
11 Max Domi C +0.32 +0.55 0.00 -0.33 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:21
91 John Tavares C +0.31 0.00 +0.24 +0.18 -0.15 +0.06 -0.02 — 17:04
22 Jake McCabe D +0.29 0.00 +0.03 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:07
23 Matthew Knies L +0.28 0.00 +0.17 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:03
28 Troy Stecher D +0.17 0.00 +0.04 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:07
24 Scott Laughton C +0.10 0.00 +0.16 -0.12 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 14:20
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.02 0.00 +0.15 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:55
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.19 0.00 +0.02 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:05
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:42
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.29 0.00 +0.03 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 27:31
60 Joseph Woll G -1.62 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.62 64:11

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D +2.27 +1.50 +0.32 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 22:11
29 Jonathan Drouin L +2.06 +1.40 +0.03 +0.62 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 18:56
13 Mathew Barzal C +1.76 +1.40 +0.22 +0.21 -0.15 -0.01 +0.09 — 22:49
77 Tony DeAngelo D +1.64 +0.55 +0.12 +1.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:42
3 Adam Pelech D +1.28 +0.75 +0.13 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:04
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.27 0.00 +0.21 +1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:45
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C +1.21 +0.55 +0.09 +0.53 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:30
51 Emil Heineman L +0.91 +1.30 +0.14 -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:11
6 Ryan Pulock D +0.10 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:45
27 Anders Lee L -0.13 0.00 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 — 15:34
33 David Rittich G -0.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.24 64:11
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.41 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:15
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 13:12
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:16
7 Maxim Tsyplakov R -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:10
49 Max Shabanov R -0.57 0.00 +0.04 -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:04
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.78 0.00 +0.07 -0.78 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 9:10
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.98 0.00 +0.10 -1.30 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:09
4 Cole McWard D -1.24 0.00 0.00 -1.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.