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Nashville PredatorsNSH 4–3 Final Calgary FlamesCGY

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 211 4 36
Calgary FlamesCGY 201 3 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:56 CGY Yan Kuznetsov (3) MacKenzie Weegar (12), Jonathan Huberdeau (13) · slap xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
11:19 NSH Erik Haula (6) Michael Bunting (11), Steven Stamkos (9) · wrist xG 0.15 1–1 ▶
12:52 NSH Erik Haula (7) Steven Stamkos (10), Michael Bunting (12) · wrist xG 0.09 2–1 ▶
13:41 CGY Rasmus Andersson (9) Matt Coronato (12) · wrist xG 0.15 2–2 ▶
2nd Period
4:08 NSH Michael Bunting (11) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.06 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
12:49 CGY Blake Coleman (13) Mikael Backlund (16), Matt Coronato (13) · wrist xG 0.10 3–3 ▶
19:31 NSH Nicolas Hague (2) Michael Bunting (13), Michael McCarron (7) · slap xG 0.03 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 64%Deserve to win36% CGY
NSHCGY
2.85Expected goals2.11
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.63Expected goals, 5 on 51.69
63Shot attempts52
51Unblocked attempts37
36Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
12:53 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 63–37%
CGY had led since 6:05 of the 1st, by as much as 68%
3rd Period
8:30 CGY No shift No shift · Beecher, 21:31 on the bench
No shift after 9:52 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:06) before that
19:34 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 4–3
With 0:26 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CGY shoots
Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:22) Michael Bunting: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:30) Morgan Frost: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:44) Erik Haula: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:14) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:19) Roman Josi: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:42) Michael Bunting: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:41) Blake Coleman: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:11) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:27) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:48) Kevin Bahl: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:55) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:05) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:08) Michael McCarron: wrap-around, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:16) Connor Zary: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 8:37) Kevin Bahl: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:41) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:03) Ryan Lomberg: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:14) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:28) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:37) Brady Skjei: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:44) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:59) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:30) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:06) Nick Perbix: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:06) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:40) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:57) Tyson Jost: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:26) Reid Schaefer: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:31) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:04) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:17) Nick Blankenburg: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:38) MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:40) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 0:42) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:54) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:10) Matt Coronato: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:49) Erik Haula: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:50) Erik Haula: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:58) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 5:01) Cole Smith: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:10) Tyson Jost: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:25) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:10) Nick Perbix: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:12) Michael Bunting: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:33) Tyson Jost: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:39) Roman Josi: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:38) Erik Haula: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:34) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:53) Cole Smith: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:10) Nick Perbix: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:18) Adam Wilsby: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:22) Brady Skjei: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:29) Michael Bunting: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:04) Nick Blankenburg: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:11) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:04) Erik Haula: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:58) Roman Josi: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:08) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:56) Connor Zary: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:14) Jonathan Huberdeau: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:37) Michael McCarron: slap, 104 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:44) Blake Coleman: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 3:38) Reid Schaefer: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:14) Yan Kuznetsov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:34) Ryan O'Reilly: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:48) Brady Skjei: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:18) Erik Haula: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:52) Erik Haula: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:26) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:47) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:29) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:31) Michael McCarron: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:35) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:02) Adam Klapka: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:14) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 16:35) Yegor Sharangovich: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:35) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:57) Kevin Bahl: backhand, 103 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:33) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:00) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:34) Yan Kuznetsov: GOAL, slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:56) Erik Haula: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 11:19) Erik Haula: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:52) Rasmus Andersson: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:41) Michael Bunting: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:08) Blake Coleman: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:49) Nicolas Hague: GOAL, slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -1 60.41 0218:50
56 Erik Haula 202 +1 90.46 0018:29
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -2 10.10 2018:15
91 Steven Stamkos 022 +3 50.35 3118:11
77 Luke Evangelista 000 -2 10.01 0117:33
22 Cole Smith 000 +1 20.13 7117:33
58 Michael Bunting 134 +3 50.18 0016:23
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 30.12 0112:39
47 Michael McCarron 011 +1 30.06 2012:39
49 Reid Schaefer 000 0 40.49 4112:23
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 00.00 1010:46
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 0 40.11 0122:52
48 Nick Perbix 000 +1 30.13 2420:09
76 Brady Skjei 000 -1 60.07 1018:29
41 Nicolas Hague 101 +1 20.03 0118:21
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 50.12 1116:16
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -1 20.09 0114:43
72 Justin Barron 000 +1 20.00 0009:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 23320 .870 2.11 -0.89

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Nazem Kadri 000 -2 20.14 0122:00
20 Blake Coleman 101 +1 40.36 4118:49
10 Jonathan Huberdeau 011 -1 10.10 0018:30
27 Matt Coronato 022 +1 20.07 0018:00
11 Mikael Backlund 011 +2 40.27 0017:57
16 Morgan Frost 000 -1 10.05 0016:27
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -1 70.28 0016:21
86 Joel Farabee 000 -2 10.00 2015:26
43 Adam Klapka 000 0 30.01 8014:59
47 Connor Zary 000 0 20.19 0011:32
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 30.23 0007:28
17 John Beecher 000 0 00.00 0003:06
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 101 +2 80.18 0226:06
52 MacKenzie Weegar 011 -2 50.13 2023:32
7 Kevin Bahl 000 +1 40.05 6322:30
37 Yan Kuznetsov 101 -1 30.07 2421:16
44 Joel Hanley 000 -1 00.00 0112:31
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 -1 20.00 2009:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 36432 .889 2.85 -1.15

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
58 Michael Bunting L +3.88 +2.70 +0.12 +1.10 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:23
56 Erik Haula L +3.19 +1.50 +0.30 +1.51 -0.15 +0.05 -0.02 — 18:29
91 Steven Stamkos C +2.66 +1.25 +0.22 +1.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 18:11
41 Nicolas Hague D +1.99 +0.75 +0.02 +1.17 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:21
37 Nick Blankenburg D +1.27 0.00 +0.08 +1.12 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 16:16
49 Reid Schaefer L +1.10 0.00 +0.32 +0.60 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 12:23
36 Cole Smith R +0.85 0.00 +0.08 +0.71 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 17:33
47 Michael McCarron C +0.74 +0.55 +0.04 +0.10 0.00 +0.07 -0.02 — 12:39
59 Roman Josi D +0.55 0.00 +0.07 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:52
48 Nick Perbix D +0.30 0.00 +0.08 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 20:09
17 Tyson Jost C +0.24 0.00 +0.08 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:39
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.12 0.00 +0.26 -0.25 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 — 18:50
20 Justin Barron D -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:29
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.11 0.00 +0.06 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:15
76 Brady Skjei D -0.20 0.00 +0.04 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:29
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.35 0.00 +0.06 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:43
40 Fedor Svechkov C -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 10:46
77 Luke Evangelista R -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:33
74 Juuse Saros G -0.89 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.89 60:00

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Mikael Backlund C +1.44 +0.70 +0.17 +0.54 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 17:57
27 Matt Coronato R +1.38 +1.25 +0.05 +0.16 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 — 18:00
4 Rasmus Andersson D +1.22 +0.75 +0.12 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 26:06
20 Blake Coleman L +1.08 +0.75 +0.23 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:49
37 Yan Kuznetsov D +0.28 +0.75 +0.04 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 21:16
18 John Beecher C +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.25 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 3:06
47 Connor Zary C +0.17 0.00 +0.12 +0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:32
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.09 0.00 +0.18 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 16:21
52 MacKenzie Weegar D 0.00 +0.70 +0.08 -0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:32
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.11 0.00 +0.03 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 +0.09 — 22:30
70 Ryan Lomberg L -0.11 0.00 +0.15 -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:28
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L -0.17 +0.55 +0.07 -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:30
86 Joel Farabee L -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.54 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:26
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:53
44 Joel Hanley D -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:31
16 Morgan Frost C -0.54 0.00 +0.03 -0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:27
43 Adam Klapka R -1.09 0.00 +0.01 -1.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:59
32 Dustin Wolf G -1.15 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.15 59:37
91 Nazem Kadri C -1.27 0.00 +0.09 -1.37 0.00 -0.06 +0.07 — 22:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.